2022 Los Angeles Chargers Odds, Schedule, & Fantasy Football Team Preview
Hello Grinders and welcome back to the 2022 NFL team previews. Next up, the Los Angelos Chargers. The AFC West is absolutely loaded with offensive goodness and the Chargers are no exception. Justin Herbert is back with all of his key weapons. Despite a fabulous statistical season he’ll presumably look to wash the horrible taste out of his mouth that was the end of the 2021 season that saw the LAC lose 3 of 4, including 2 in OT, most notably the completely absurd Week 17 SNF tie game that wasn’t meant to be vs LV which eliminated them from playoff participation. Will the Chargers have a redemption season or are they doomed to continue to lose games in even goofier fashion? Let’s talk about it.
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2022 Los Angeles Chargers Schedule, Lines, and Best Bets
Projected Odds, derived & modified from data originally published by Sean Koerner here.
Win Total and Total Games Favored:
10 (-110) / 12 Games Favored ( 4 Big Favorites / 0 Big Dogs)
Playing in the AFC West is a tough place to start from a strength of schedule perspective as 4 games vs KC/DEN isn’t ideal, nor is drawing LAR and SF, but beyond that it looks like the Chargers are well positioned to pick on some likely bottom feeders. They are projected to be favored in 12 games and get to face 4 of the worst 6 teams when it comes to current Vegas team win total (JAX, HOU, SEA, and ATL). Additionally they play CLEV WK 5 meaning the Browns will be without the newly suspended Deshaun Watson.
Best Bet: OVER 9.5 Wins -145, BETMGM
The Chargers are coming off a disappointing 9-7 season where they return essentially the same elite offense and have addressed what was a pretty rough defense. How bad was it? They were ranked 26th in DVOA, but specific to the run, they were 30th. They improved their D with the addition of Khalil Mack, J.C Jackson, Austin Jackson, among others. Combine that with another year of development of Justin Herbert and I have to think they can find one more win this season. If you are feeling froggy I’m ok firing at LAC winning the Super Bowl (16-1 on Fanduel) and Herbert leading the league in passing TDs (9-1 Caesars). It is worth noting that 2x Pro Bowl Safety Derwin James is currently holding out for a contract extension, but there is reason for optimism it will get resolved.
Los Angeles Chargers Props
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Favorite Prop: Justin Herbert OVER 4700.5 yards
Truth be told I don’t love any LAC bets on PrizePicks but if you’re gonna force me to choose I’m ok betting on Herbert staying healthy. Assuming he does I like his chances to eclipse this number. The Chargers play fast, I fully trust the arm talent of Herbert, and expect him to take a few more downfield chances this season.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Football Projections
Team Rankings and Ratings
Offense Ranks:Rank 3/ Strong Rush / Very Strong Pass/ Rank 5 Points For)
Defense Ranks:Rank 9/ Below Average Rush / Elite pass / Rank 8 Points Allowed)
Opponent Strength – Rushing:4 difficult vs. rush. 5 soft vs. rush.
Opponent Strength – Passing:4 difficult vs. pass. 7 soft vs. pass.
Few things are more tilting than a team punting on 4th and 2 on their opponent’s 40 yd line and an old dude like Phil Simms is in the booth saying how sharp it was to try and pin their opponent back. That isn’t a thing with the Chargers as Head Coach Brandon Staley believes math is a thing. His analytical approach led to LAC converting more 4th downs than any other team last year as they went for it the 4th most. This of course is a plus for the offense. The Chargers also play fast, have one the league’s top offenses, and very clear targets for DFS/fantasy.
Los Angeles Chargers Top Fantasy Football Plays & Picks
Noteworthy Depth Chart
QB: Justin Herbert – Underdog Rank: 57 (ADP 45 / -21.05% ADP Gap)
RB: Austin Ekeler – Underdog Rank: 9 (ADP 6 / -33.33% ADP Gap)
RB: Isaiah Spiller – Underdog Rank: 148 (ADP 135 / -8.78% ADP Gap)
WR: Keenan Allen – Underdog Rank: 27 (ADP 27 / 0% ADP Gap)
WR: Mike Williams – Underdog Rank: 30 (ADP 28 / -6.67% ADP Gap)
WR: Josh Palmer – Underdog Rank: 140 (ADP 142 – 1.43% ADP Gap)
TE: Gerald Everett – Underdog Rank: 141 (ADP 153 / 8.51% ADP Gap)
*Note: Premium Subscribers can find updated rankings for Underdog Fantasy in the content schedule here.
New Additions of Note: Gerald Everett TE, Isaiah Spiller RB, Khalil Mack LB
Departures of Note: Justin Jackson RB, Jared Cook TE
Justin Herbert enters Year 3 having created more TDs (77) in his first two season than any other player in the history of the NFL. There is no reason to think this excellence won’t continue going forward and that he should be a Top 5 QB. If there is one knock on Herbert its that he had a low aDOT (7.4) last season, but one can flip that, and say it opens the door for potential upside, if given more of a chance to unleash downfield more often. He certainly has the arm strength for it.
Austin Ekeler is an elite fantasy RB and few can compete with his duel threat skills. He ran for over 900 yds last season which is just fine, but where he really thrives is in the passing game as Ekeler had the 2nd most receptions (70) among all RBs. He did see a spike in TDs (12 rushing / 8 receiving) so its possible some negative TD regression is coming. He was incredibly efficient scoring 7 TDs on 12 carries inside the 5, but Ekeler did have the second most Red Zone carries (46) so scoring opportunities should once again be there.
Keenan Allen is 30, and we’ve seen his efficiency dip incrementally for the last several years, but at the same time he has no less than 97 receptions in each of the last 5 seasons and averaged just short of 10 targets a game in 2021. I don’t want to be one year late on the inevitable Allen decline but I also don’t think it happens this year and expect him to be right around a Top 10 WR. Mike Williams is more of a high variance player as his target share is lower but his aDOT is higher. He’ll have some low floor games, but you’re gonna love him when he puts up 5-150-2 twice this season. Josh Palmer would be my preferred WR upside flyer as we’ve seen him be productive when given a chance.
Image Credit: Imagn