Chargers vs. Colts Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Chargers vs. Colts Odds
| Chargers Odds | -4.5 |
| Colts Odds | +4.5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Mon, Dec. 26 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Week 16 of the NFL season will conclude on Monday Night Football with a battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts. Entering play, the Chargers, 8-6, occupy the 6th seed in the AFC playoff picture. The Colts, 4-9-1, have been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention. Nevertheless, oddsmakers are expecting a competitive game script in this matchup, pricing the Chargers as 4-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Chargers
On Saturday, both the New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders lost, which has created an opportunity for the Chargers to clinch their first postseason berth since 2018 with a win over the Colts on Monday. Since Los Angeles’ Week 8 bye, this group has been mediocre, ranking 15th in offensive EPA/play. Justin Herbert has been good, but not great – posting a 9-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio across his last seven games. Facing an injury-depleted Tennessee Titans secondary unit last weekend, Herbert failed to throw a touchdown, but suffered two interceptions. Protection continues to be an area of concern for Herbert, who has been sacked multiple times in six consecutive games entering play. Both of Herbert’s interceptions against Tennessee came when under pressure.
Last week, safety Derwin James was named to his third Pro Bowl, and this evening he will return to the field for the first time since Week 13. Per Pro Football Focus, James has graded as the ninth-best player at his position this fall. Los Angeles could have slot cornerback Bryce Callahan and defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day on the field for this prime time affair, with both players logging a full practice session on Friday. Still, this unit will be without edge rusher Joey Bosa, defensive tackle Austin Johnson, and cornerback J.C. Jackson on the defensive side of the ball in this one – each of whom has been out since at least Week 10. Since Week 11, the Chargers rank 20th in defensive EPA/play.
Indianapolis Colts
Nick Foles will make his first start of the campaign on December 26, exactly one year after he made his first start of the 2021 season – a 25-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Since the beginning of last season, Foles has attempted only 35 passes, and his most recent large body of work in 2020 was less than impressive, with him throwing 10 touchdowns against eight interceptions. Foles is unlikely to receive much support from the running game in this spot either, with Jonathan Taylor on injured reserve. Zack Moss and Deon Jackson combined for only 3.7 yards-per-carry on 37 carries last weekend against the Minnesota Vikings.
On the defensive side of the ball, Kenny Moore II has been ruled out with an ankle injury after having not practiced at all during the week. Though Moore II has struggled in 2022, the Colts secondary unit has regressed to 23rd in Dropback EPA/play since he last played in Week 12. In two games since he last took the field, the Colts have surrendered seven touchdown passes to Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins. In place of Moore II, Julian Blackmon has assumed duties as the primary slot cornerback, but it has not gone particularly well. Since Week 13, he has allowed seven receptions on nine targets for 132 receiving yards. He could have trouble trying to slow down Keenan Allen on Monday.
Chargers vs. Colts – Picks & Predictions
In this matchup, two flawed teams are likely to find themselves in a closely-contested game for the majority of the evening. Though the Chargers are undeniably the more talented team, this is a group that is still missing a number of key pieces on the defensive side of the ball, not to mention the fact that they have a reputation for being poorly coached. The Colts may have a difficult time playing spoiler in a true sense on Monday Night Football, but they could do enough to cover the spread, especially if renewed energy from a new starting quarterback plays a factor here.
PICK: Colts +4.5 (-110, MGM)
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