Mac Jones' NFL Rookie of the Year Odds & Patriots' AFC East Outlook
In a surprising move yesterday, the New England Patriots released Cam Newton and made rookie Mac Jones the team’s starting quarterback. Prior to the news breaking, Jones was listed at +1000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors at most online sportsbooks. Those odds have changed to +450 now that he is likely guaranteed a full season of playing time, assuming he stays healthy.
Let’s take a look at Jones’ prospects for his rookie campaign, and how this move changes the betting landscape in the AFC East division.
Mac Jones’ +450 to Win NFL Rookie of the Year Odds
In three years at Alabama, Jones completed 74.3 percent of his passes, throwing for 56 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. In the preseason, Head Coach Bill Belichick gave him a legitimate opportunity to win the starting quarterback job. Jones performed exceptionally well, completing 69.2 percent of his pass attempts, throwing no interceptions, and grading as the best rookie signal caller, judged by Pro Football Focus. If there is one area of concern based on his exhibition statistics, it is the fact that he took five sacks in limited action.
There is no denying that NFL football games in August do not have the same intensity as the regular season. Yet, Belichick would not have handed the keys to the offense to Jones if he thought he was not ready to perform at a high level. Belichick could have easily started Newton in Week 1 and allowed Jones to gain more reps during practice throughout the year. After all, New England won seven games in 2020 with Newton as their primary starting quarterback, and this was with a number of key players opting-out of the season due to COVID-concerns. Belichick must think that Jones is capable of at least leading this team to a winning record, if not giving this group a chance to make the postseason.
If Jones compiles decent counting stats and leads the Patriots to a playoff berth, he will be a strong contender for the award. Based on his body of work from college and his shrewd decision making with the ball in the preseason, Jones has a fantastic opportunity to win Offensive Rookie of the Year honors this fall—especially if Trevor Lawrence struggles to deliver wins with a far less talented team in Jacksonville.
AFC East Division Winner Odds
Last season, the Buffalo Bills were the class of this division, winning 13 games en route to their first division title since 1995. Buffalo went on to defeat the Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens in the postseason, before losing to the vaunted Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in the AFC Championship game. Quarterback Josh Allen signed a massive contract extension with Buffalo this offseason after an outstanding 37 touchdown, 10 interception campaign in which he completed 69.2 percent of his pass attempts and threw for 4,544 yards. It is surprising to see the Bills getting such little respect at sportsbooks, being listed as only -150 favorites to win this division.
It is especially difficult to understand why Buffalo is not a bigger favorite to win the AFC East, considering the fact that the Miami Dolphins’ starting quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa will be entering his first full season of action as a starter, and the New England Patriots will be going with a rookie under center, who has never played a snap of regular season NFL football.
Buffalo finished top-10 in passer rating allowed in 2020, despite some of their bigger name defensive players underperforming. Miami’s defense is seemingly heading in the right direction from a development standpoint, but it is doubtful that this unit is better-coached or more talented than the Bills. If there is a team that can threaten Buffalo for the AFC East division title this fall, it will be the New England Patriots, who are led by one of the greatest coaches in the history of the league and still have one of the deepest rosters in football, even if their depth chart lost some media coverage due to the departure of Tom Brady. Stephon Gilmore should benefit from the return of Dont’a Hightower, who opted-out in 2020. Hightower has been arguably New England’s most important piece on the defensive side of the ball in recent years.
Still, bettors should have the utmost confidence in Buffalo to win this division, assuming that Josh Allen stays healthy. New England could be worth a small wager to make the postseason at +126 odds, but the Bills are likely to be one of the best teams in the league in 2021, and should have little trouble fending off either Miami or New England in the AFC East.
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