How to Build the Best March Madness Bracket (& Win Your Pool)
Editor’s Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a site that provides data-driven NCAA bracket picks, projections, and tools. Since 2017, PoolGenius subscribers have won over $2.5 million in bracket pool prizes, with 52% of subscribers winning a prize in at least one pool per year on average.
No matter how closely you follow college basketball, chances are you’ll be filling out at least one March Madness bracket.
Before you throw your hands up and say, “Well, Janet from HR won last year picking teams based on mascots, so what’s the point?” – let’s take a step back. The idea that bracket pools are all random or that there’s no edge is simply not true.
And at PoolGenius, we have the data to back it up.
Build Your Best March Madness Bracket in Minutes
With over 20 years of refinement, PoolGenius has built a customizable bracket optimizer that generates the smartest bracket for your pool in minutes.
It’s like a DFS optimizer for your bracket—but smarter, and the results speak for themselves:
- 3.1x more likely to win than average player since 2017
- 7.1x the expected win rate in some tournaments
- 61% of users won a pool last year
On top of that, over half of PoolGenius users celebrate a bracket victory every year (since 2017), while most players go a decade (or lifetime) without a win.
NCAA Bracket Optimizer from PoolGenius >>
Free & Discount Offers Available >>
5 Steps to Build the Best Bracket for YOUR Pool
Bracket picking is both an art and a science, but PoolGenius pushes the needle as far as possible toward science. To truly build the best March Madness bracket for your pool, you need to understand five factors that separate success from failure. Most casual bracket pickers ignore at least one of these.
1. Understand Your Pool’s Scoring System
This one may sound obvious, but plenty of people overlook it. Different scoring systems translate to entirely different strategies. Here are three common examples:
Traditional (1-2-4-8-16-32): In this system, your champion pick is worth 32 first-round picks! Focus heavily on optimizing your Final Four selections. Most people take way too many upsets in the first round.
Flat Scoring (1-2-3-4-5-6): Early rounds carry much more weight here. Your champion pick is only worth six first-round games, so nailing those early matchups is crucial.
Upset Bonuses: If your pool awards extra points for upsets, optimal strategy often requires picking several risky underdogs that would seem absurd in standard scoring.
The scoring format is the foundation of your strategy – ignore it at your peril.
2. Factor in Your Pool Size
The number of entries in your pool should directly influence how much risk you take:
Small Pools (Under 30 People):
- Be more conservative with your picks
- Focus on value plays rather than long shots
- Let opponents make mistakes with too many upset picks
Large Pools (100+ People):
- Take calculated risks to differentiate your bracket
- Identify undervalued teams with winning potential
- Make more contrarian picks, especially with your champion
Most people just can’t resist the temptation—even in a small pool, they chase trendy upset picks for the short-term bragging rights. If that’s your goal, go for it! But if you want to win, be strategic, check your picks, and choose your upsets wisely (with your scoring system and pool size in mind).
3. Ignore the “Golden Rules” of Bracket Picking
Each March, you’ll hear countless “rules” for picking your bracket:
- “Always pick at least one 12-seed to beat a 5-seed!”
- “You can’t pick all four 1 seeds to make the Final Four!”
- “Teams that lost early in their conference tournament always flame out!”
These myths are bracket killers. The 12 vs. 5 “rule” is particularly egregious – sometimes all four 5-seeds make for optimal picks, and occasionally multiple 12-seeds are the way to go. It depends entirely on the matchups that year.
The best March Madness bracket strategy comes from evaluating each tournament on its terms – not forcing picks to match historical patterns.
4. Consider Public Pick Popularity
To win your pool, you need picks that are both correct AND different from your opponents. This is where understanding public picking trends becomes vital.
For example, if a team has 40% betting odds to reach the Sweet 16 but is only being picked in 20% of brackets, that’s a potential value play. Conversely, if a popular Cinderella is being picked by 30% of entries but only has a 15% actual chance of advancing, that’s a team to potentially avoid.
Where Can You Find Public Pick Data?
PoolGenius has the secret sauce: it aggregates pick popularity from multiple bracket contest sites. You can then compare these popularity percentages to the actual advancement odds to find overrated and underrated plays.
NCAA Bracket Optimizer from PoolGenius >>
Free & Discount Offers Available >>
5. Make a Cohesive Bracket Strategy
Every pick affects the next. If you roll the dice on an early-round upset, balance it with a safer pick in the next game. A smart bracket isn’t just about picking winners—it’s about creating a winning path.
For instance, if you take a bold underdog in the first round, consider a safer pick in the adjacent matchup. That way, your potential second-round pick still has a viable path to the Sweet 16, keeping your bracket competitive even if the upset doesn’t happen.
The Human Brain’s Limitation Problem
At this point, you might be thinking, “This all makes sense. I’ll just check the odds on a sportsbook, factor in my pool’s scoring, consider pick popularity, and adjust for pool size.”
But here’s the problem: the human brain simply cannot optimize across all these factors simultaneously. The mathematics involved in calculating expected value for each possible combination of picks is staggering.
That’s why PoolGenius invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in creating bracket simulation technology. Their algorithms analyze millions of possible brackets to find the specific picks that maximize win probability for your exact pool specifications – all in a couple of clicks.
Get Your Optimized Bracket Now!
When you use PoolGenius, you’re not just getting bracket picks – you’re getting a mathematical advantage proven to work across thousands of real-world pools.
The technology:
- Customizes picks specifically for your pool’s size and scoring
- Identifies the optimal balance of risk and reliability
- Recommends value picks where public perception differs from reality
- Updates based on team news and injuries
Don’t leave your bracket to chance – or the limitations of the human brain.
Join the 52% of PoolGenius subscribers who celebrate a pool prize every year.
NCAA Bracket Optimizer from PoolGenius >>
Free & Discount Offers Available >>
P.S. – PoolGenius also has tools for NCAA survivor pools and Calcutta auctions.