Market Exploitation: NFL Week 3
Before diving into this week’s opportunities, let’s take a peek back to Week 2’s results.
Last week presented the perfect intersection of a bearish market and a predictable rise in opportunity. This happened, of course, with Bengals rookie runner Jeremy Hill, who roamed the sidelines for most of Cincy’s Week 1 victory before getting some serious run in the team’s Week 2 tilt against a soft Atlanta front seven.
Hill finished Week 2 with 15 carries for 74 yards and a goal line touchdown as the Bengals drubbed the Falcons. Coaches had made it crystal clear that Hill was going to get more playing time in Week 2, and with his FanDuel price crashing after Week 1, the rookie was an ideal fit for this exploitative space.
Geno Smith and Nick Foles, both of whom saw FanDuel salary hits after shaky Week 1 performances, proved solid Week 2 options as well, finishing as the week’s No. 7 and 8 fantasy quarterbacks, respectively.
Andre Johnson posted decent numbers in a game that didn’t really require the Texans to score points, and Torrey Smith’s horrendous season somehow got worse. Perhaps his daily fantasy salary hadn’t dropped enough, though I suspect it will soon.
The Market Watch tool on RotoGrinders — an incredibly useful feature that will be key to market exploitations –- is going to be the centerpiece of our approach from here on out. Market Watch tells us which players have seen their salary dip and which guys have had their asking price skyrocket.
Remember, these plays are mostly for large-field tournaments, not head-to-heads and 50/50s. We’re going to be right alone or wrong alone on many of the guys listed below. (If you’re interested in 50/50 strategy, check out this lesson from RotoGrinders’ “Grinders U” course on winning daily fantasy strategies. Otherwise, read on!)
Now let’s continue to be greedy while our competitors are fearful.
Market Exploitation: FanDuel
Quarterbacks
Tony Romo ($7,600) at St. Louis Rams
Romo, amazingly, doesn’t appear to be a useable fantasy quarterback through two weeks. Maybe it’s his balky back, maybe it’s Dallas’ new offense – it’s hard to say.
His FanDuel salary has dipped by another $200 heading into Week 3, making him the site’s 16th priciest signal caller. Romo is now in Geno Smith’s salary range. I’m not charging that Romo is on the verge of a blowup performance – especially against a St. Louis defense that can be had on the ground – but I think the Cowboys’ quarterback makes for a great against-the-grain play in Week 3.
The Rams’ secondary has allowed a healthy .49 fantasy points per pass attempt (FPAT) – enough for me to plug Romo into a FanDuel tournament lineup this week.
Matthew Stafford ($9,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
It almost feels like cheating to put Stafford in this space, but his FanDuel price tag dropped by $300 from Week 2 to Week 3, so he certainly qualifies. Stafford faced off against an elite Carolina coverage unit last week – the direct opposite of what he faces in Week 3. The Packers are allowing a .46 FPAT against opposing quarterbacks, making Stafford an arbitrage play for Peyton Manning in Week 3.
Running Backs
Reggie Bush ($7,300) vs. Green Bay Packers
Bush’s salary, like Stafford’s, dropped after a wicked Week 2 matchup at Carolina. His FanDuel asking price fell by a remarkable $500 in one week, putting him among runners like Doug Martin and James Starks.
Teammate Joique Bell is fully $500 cheaper than Bush, so I expect Bell’s Week 3 ownership to be much higher than Bush’s ownership. Bush, who has a measly 23 touches through two weeks, is averaging .77 fantasy points per touch. Against an exploitable Packers’ defense, I think Bush could be a premiere contrarian play.
Wide Receivers
Keenan Allen ($6,900) at Buffalo Bills
Allen, who once again saw his salary fall after a pedestrian stat line against Seattle, is now the 17th highest priced receiver on FanDuel. The exploitable news: he gets to play Buffalo, which sports Pro Football Focus’s 20th-ranked pass coverage unit.
Besides Corey Graham – PFF’s second best cover corner through two weeks – the Bills’ secondary is borderline awful. Allen has 10 grabs for 93 yards on 15 targets in a couple truly terrible matchups to start the year – enough to ding his market value, taint the perception of him as a top-end receiver and make him a target for those committed to being greedy while others are filled with fear.
Aaron Dobson ($4,800) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Patriots probably could’ve taken a knee for every offensive snap last week against Minnesota and still pulled out the victory. New England hardly had to do anything offensively, and it showed in stat lines across the board.
Dobson, returning from off-season foot surgery, was eased into the offense with 15 pass routes against the Vikings. He caught one of two targets for 13 yards. Hence, his FanDuel salary dropped by $100, putting him below teammate Danny Amendola.
Dobson is strictly a tourney play this week – we’ll be right or wrong on him, but we’ll be right or wrong alone – if he indeed suits up against Oakland. The Raiders are allowing just 13.5 fantasy points per game to receivers, though that’s a deceiving stat as teams have simply run the ball with ease against a cushy front seven. Almost every member of Oakland’s secondary has received poor coverage grades from PFF through two weeks. I’ll have Dobson in a lineup if he plays.
Tight Ends
Jared Cook ($5,200) vs. Dallas Cowboys
Everyone’s tight end streamer of the week poses a problem for market exploitation. Sure, Cook’s FanDuel salary dipped by $400 from Week 2 to Week 3, but he’s widely considered a sneaky play against a Dallas defenses that has been gouged by opposing tight ends in back-to-back weeks.
Cook, the site’s 16th priciest tight end, could be a decent tournament play, but I’m begging off of him because he’s likely going to be used by anyone who has read a fantasy advice column this week.
Rob Gronkowski ($7,700) vs. Oakland Raiders
I feel obliged to mention Gronk here after his FanDuel price tag fell by another $200 this week.
Again, the New England offense might not have to do much of anything to win this week, but it’s worth noting that Gronkowski is now $700 cheaper than Jimmy Graham and has proven efficient in rather limited usage through two games.
Gronk is notching .65 fantasy points per route run (FPPRR) on just 33 routes in the Pats’ first two games. The FanDuel discount makes him appealing this week and perhaps reflects a general skepticism that the lumbering touchdown-gobbling monster is a shaky play after off-season knee surgery. Take advantage.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($6,800) vs. Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense – particularly its secondary – is much improved, but I’m not shying away from Wilson as a cheap play with a nice, high ceiling in this one.
Wilson’s DraftKings price, after a Week 2 performance that saw him post 220 total yards and two scores, fell by $300 – no small margin. He’s now DraftKing’s 16th most expensive signal caller against a Broncos defense that has allowed 19.5 fantasy points to opposing signal callers over the season’s first two weeks.
Wilson, just as he did during his first two NFL seasons, has proven incredibly efficient, notching .60 fantasy points every time he drops back to pass. I’d consider Wilson a must-have value play who will not be widely used in Week 3 tournaments.
Colin Kaepernick ($6,600) at Arizona Cardinals
Kaepernick’s horrid showing last week in front of a national audience gives us a real chance to be greedy on the San Francisco signal caller while others are fearful.
Even with last Sunday’s three-interception performance, Kaepernick is averaging .52 fantasy points per drop back and a very respectable .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT). In Week 3, he’s terribly cheap and playing a Cardinals’ secondary that has allowed 257.5 passing yards per game.
Running Backs
Reggie Bush ($5,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
Vegas projects the Green Bay-Detroit showdown to be among the highest scoring of Week 3, and when I can grab a guy for cheap in such an affair, I do it.
Bush’s DraftKings salary plummeted by $1,000, putting him among the Week 3 ranks of Chris Ivory and Trent Richardson. Bush only has 23 touches this season, but is averaging .77 fantasy points per touch. He’s fully $400 cheaper than teammate Joique Bell, who I expect to be widely owned in GPPs and cash games alike.
Monte Ball ($5,900) at Seattle Seahawks
Ball’s salary has dropped by $900 in the lead up to Denver’s apocalyptic showdown in Seattle’s Thunderdome. Hence, I see him as an ideal fit for this space.
Ball hasn’t exactly lit the world aflame through two weeks, but he’s getting the ball (40 touches) plenty to eventually prove he’s a top-10 running back.
Seattle is giving up 82 rushing yards per game, and though the prospect of starting a runner against the mighty Seahawks makes me a little nauseous, I’m reminded that Ball is the 13th priciest DraftKings running back this week. He’s a fantastic contrarian play.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate ($5,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
Tate’s price tag dropped by another $200 after the entire Lions offense struggled against a top-end Panthers defense. Now in a high-scoring game as part of a high-volume throwing offense, I like Tate a lot in Week 3.
Tate has caught 11 of his 13 targets through two games. I like him as someone who can finally take advantage of the titled coverage that inevitably happens when Calvin Johnson is anywhere on the field. If you’re looking to stack players in this game, Tate deserves your attention. Brian Quick and Andrew Hawkins are pricier this week.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,600) vs. Seattle Seahawks
DT is barely top-10 in receiver salary this week on DraftKings after a remarkable $600 drop in price tag.
Teams have successfully moved their top pass catchers away from Richard Sherman – see Jordy Nelson in Week 1 – and it was just seven months ago that Thomas had 13 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown against these same Seahawks.
Plenty of daily gamers will fade Thomas this week. I won’t.
Tight Ends
Dennis Pitta ($4,400) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns’ generosity to tight ends is skewed by Week 2’s skewering at the hands of Jimmy Graham, but it’s Pitta’s price that intrigues me in Week 3. His DraftKings price fell off a cliff this week, dropping by $1,200.
Only four tight ends have more targets than Pitta through two weeks. Owen Daniels will continue to vulture some scores from Pitta, like so many No. 2 tight ends in Gary Kubiak’s offense have done over the past decade. If you’re looking to go cheap at tight end and buy a player who could easily see a half dozen targets, Pitta is your guy.