McIlroy, Johnson vs. Fowler, Wolff: Golf Betting Picks, Odds, Format & Props
Do you hear that? The sound of a golf ball blasting off the face of a driver, the splash of a bunker save, the comforting thud of plastic and rubber falling into a metal cup.
The PGA is slated to return June 11 for the Charles Schwab Challenge, and Tiger-Manning vs. Phil-Brady is scheduled for Memorial Day weekend, but we don’t have to wait more than a few days for golf betting action at online sports betting sites.
World No. 1 Rory McIlroy is teaming up with Dustin Johnson to take on Rickie Fowler and Matthew Wolff in the TaylorMade Driving Relief skins golf match this Sunday, May 17 at Seminole Golf Club.
TaylorMade Driving Relief Golf Format
First thing’s first. Before you decide whom to bet, you’ll want to know what exactly it is you’re betting on.
Rory, DJ, Rickie and Wolff will be playing a skins game, which you’re probably familiar with if you’re a recreational golfer or played the Tiger Woods’/Rory McIlroy’s PGA Tour video game over the years.
If you’re less familiar with golf, this how Sunday’s match will go down:
Each golfer will play their own ball and only their ball. Much like a best ball format, the lowest score on each hole wins. So if Fowler and Wolff both par, but Rory birdies while Johnson finds trouble and double-bogeys, Rory-DJ still win the hole since Rory’s score was the lowest of the four. In this case, they earn a “skin.”
Now the difference in best ball and skins is the scoring. Best ball can be stroke play or match play, but skins scoring is kept by counting “skins.” And in this format, skins carry over if a hole pushes.
So if the teams push the first three holes of the match, the fourth hole will be worth four skins — not just one.
Skins With a Twist
Unlike a traditional skins game, the value of skins will vary depending on the hole. Here’s a full scoring breakdown:
- Holes 1-6: $50K Each
- Holes 7-16: $100k Each
- Hole No. 17: $200K
- Hole No. 18: $500K
If there’s a playoff after the 18th hole, they’ll move on to a closest-to-the-hole competition to determine the winner.
So when it comes to winning the match, it’s not about how many skins or holes you win. It’s about how much cash ends up in your team’s charity bucket.
As you probably noticed by the cash allocation, it pays to play later in the round.
McIlroy, Johnson vs. Fowler, Wolff Betting Odds
Last week, McIlroy and Johnson opened as -185 favorites, with Fowler and Wolff listed +165.
With many casual bettors wondering who this Matthew Wolff character is, money seems to have flooded on the team with much more name recognition.
McIlroy and Johnson are currently as large as -223 favorites at BetMGM. If you’re rolling with the chalk, you can find McIlroy/Johnson -186 at Draftkings Sportsbook.
Where to Bet McIlroy/Johnson: -186 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Where to Bet Fowler/Wolff: +165 at BetMGM
Sign up at DraftKings to bet on these golf props.
TaylorMade Driving Relief Golf Props
Most U.S. sportsbooks have been slow to post golf props for this weekend’s charity match but DraftKings isn’t shying away.
At first glance, my favorite prop betting approach is taking Matthew Wolff +335 for the long tee shot on most holes.
Wolff is 21st on Tour averaging 310 yards per drive, while Rory is 2nd with 320.2 YPD, and Johnson is hit 308.3 yards off the tee on average for 28th. That’s not a perfect metric however. The shortened season means a smaller sample size, and driving distance depends a lot on the course and environment.
Wolff wasn’t far from Rory in terms for driving distance at this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy averaged 313 and Wolff 305. Wolff was third in driving distance at the Honda Classic, and he outdrove McIlroy by six yards at the Honda Classic.
Of course, these numbers are still dependent on how the golfers approached their tee shots. Rory may have played more conservative at times than Wolff and vice versa.
What we do know, though, is that Wolff can keep up with Rory and DJ off the tee.
Additionally, I expect Wolff to be the “designated bomber” on his team. That means Wolff will take aggressive lines off the tee in hopes of setting up more birdie opportunities, while Fowler may take a more conservative approach.
All things considered, I’m happy to take Wolff +335 for longest drive where available.
Golf Betting Picks: Fowler & Wolff +165
Betting on the team with the top-ranked golfer in the world and a former No. 1 player is tempting, but it’s not the right play.
There’s a lot of variance in golf — lucky putts, bad breaks, etc. — and especially so in this format, where skins carry over and not all holes are equal. Hole 18 alone is worth more than the first six holes combined!
Remember, we don’t need Fowler and Wolff to be the best golfers Sunday. We don’t even need them to win the the most holes. We just need them to win the right holes.
To Bet on Fowler/Wolff +165 at BetMGM, click here!
For general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images