The 2021 Memorial Tournament Preview: Best Bets For Top Finishes

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-06-02 10:52:32

Joe Cistaro previews Muirfield Village and looks at golf odds for Top Finishes when filling out his best bets for the 2021 Memorial Tournament. Follow along as he breaks down golf betting tips to help you make a profit this week.

Last year, as Jon Rahm finished every hole on his way to a victory at The Memorial, crews labored to break down greens for a redesign. The extremely prompt beginning to the renovation was necessary to utilize the course for this year’s event.

When constructing a golf betting card for this week, a healthy portion should be some composed conservative finishing position bets, matchups, or even cut bets to keep your bankroll in check while waiting for that elusive outright winner. While the ticket odds won’t be worth a screenshot on Twitter, winning one of these tickets each week means maintaining a bankroll throughout the season. This article focuses on the best prices for bets of this ilk for the upcoming tournament.

2021 Memorial Tournament Preview

A renovation changed the face of Jack’s course last year. Greens are bentgrass with significant changes to bunker complexes on nearly every hole. Fairway and greenside bunkers were rebuilt and replaced “strategically” with about 100 yards added to the course over the renovation.

The scorecard includes four par 5s and seven par 4s with yardage between 450 and 500 yards. Three of the par 3s sit at 200 yards. With these holes and several longer par 4s, proximity from 175-200 yards is going to be factored in this week. Given the strategic placement of bunkers, I included a sprinkle of sand saves into my model while emphasizing strokes gained on approach. Instead of focusing on strokes gained off the tee, I included fairways gained because of the smallish greens and the need to hit from the correct landing area. Finally, par 4s from 450-500 yards are going to be crucial this week — I decided to weigh this statistic a bit more than usual.

After reviewing the model and the categories discussed above (as well as a few others), we need to price shop. I canvased online betting sites for the best prices on top finishers and selected a T30, T20, T10, and finally, a T5. Let’s take a look.

The Memorial Golf Odds

Here are the top odds from The Memorial, accurate as of May 31 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Top finishing odds are typically derivative of outright odds.

The Memorial Best Bets

Doug Ghim Top 30 +320 (PointsBet)

Yikes! Starting my card off with Doug Ghim feels like choosing the most thrilling ride at an amusement park to lead off. Doug Ghim is not for those who prefer the teacups or the log flume but the course seems to be a decent fit. Muirfield Village commands accurate driving off the tee and exceptional iron play. Ghim ranks second in the field in proximity from 175-yards and third in fairways gained. The approach game is there and the smaller greens mitigate his putting deficit. The Ghim outright is possibly the theme park equivalent of bungee jumping but the Top 30 price on PointsBet creates less anxiety.

Risking 1 unit to win 3

Cameron Tringale +320 (FanDuel)

Cameron Tringale flirted with greatness in his opening round at the PGA Championship and then missed the cut with a disastrous second-day effort. Despite continuing to struggle off the tee (-2.6 SG) at the Charles Schwab, Tringale gained on approach and around the green. FanDuel offers the best price on a Top 20 for Cameron who will play far better if he returns to gaining strokes off the tee. Tringale ranks inside of the top 25 in the field over the last 36 rounds with strokes gained around the green, out of the sand, and putting. I love the ability to scramble from a top finish bet as a missed GIR should not lead to disaster. If either Tringale or Ghim cash, we should break even for the tournament regardless of the other outcomes.

Risking 1 unit to win 3.2

Keegan Bradley +400 (BetMGM)

Keegan Bradley could be one of my favorite golfers to bet this week and well, every week. Bradley continues to gain strokes tee to green while balancing with very strong around the green play. While the putter is always a big question mark and the most prohibitive factor for his win equity, his recent form has treated his Top 20 bettors extremely well. Keegan boasts three consecutive T20 finishes with a second at Valspar mixed in. He is fifth in this week’s field (last 36 rounds) in fairways gained. His exceptional T2G game should put him in play for a top finish. If he putts… I will back him up with a very small outright bet.

I did find odds at +450 for this on another book but BetMGM pays full including ties for top finishes. I prefer the full price given how often ties occur inside the top ten for golf tournaments.

Risking 1/2 unit to win 2

Louis Oosthuizen Top 5 +650 (BetMGM)

Speaking of strong recent form, Louis Oosthuizen boasts a couple of top tens in his last starts with a very strong run at the PGA Championship. Given the uncertainty of the conditions, Louis was a potential winner going into the final nine and came up just short. He checks plenty of boxes that I am focusing on this week including leading the field in stroke gained with the putter in his last 36 rounds. Oosthuizen has been nails around the green and brings the third rank in Par 4s from 450-500 yards in the same time frame. Oosty is still waiting for his first win on American soil and this week could be the one given his recent form. While he has not put together many strong finishes at Jack’s course, we aren’t betting on an outright. A T5 will pay with ties on BetMGM. I will sacrifice the better odds at FanDuel and avoid a huge split to cut the pot.

Risking 1/2 unit to win 3.25

Good luck with your golf bets this week. Be smart and keep building that bankroll as the US Open approaches.

Image Credit: Imagn