2023 Memorial Tournament: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-05-31 13:19:23

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Memorial Tournament. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

After a well-contested tournament at Colonial Country Club, the PGA Tour elevates again with a designated event at the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village. The best of the best will be in attendance at an event that should prove to be a great challenge for tour players. Billy Horschel took down the championship last year but will be surrounded by a far stronger field in his defense. Do we anticipate another top golfer clutching the trophy or can someone from down the board pull off a breakthrough victory a la Wyndham Clark? Let’s start with betting odds and a course preview.

2023 Memorial Tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – May 30th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Memorial Tournament:

• 2022 – Billy Horschel (-14)
• 2021 – Patrick Cantlay (-13)
• 2020 – Jon Rahm (-9)
• 2019 – Patrick Cantlay (-19)
• 2018 – Bryson DeChambeau (-15)
• 2017 – Jason Dufner (-13)

The Memorial is another invitational with a 120-man field and a cut line at 65 players (and ties). As an elevated event, the field will be the strongest at Muirfield Village that we will see as the likes of Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, and Rory McIlroy headline the field. Per BetMGM, though, Patrick Cantlay is ahead of Rory McIlroy in betting odds. This is likely due to Rory’s recent form combined with Cantlay’s track record at the event. One note, Cantlay’s second victory is shrouded in a bit of controversy as Jon Rahm was smashing the field before withdrawing from the event with COVID.

Billy Horschel won the event last season with an incredible 65 on Saturday. Scottie Scheffler did not play in this event last year after running over the tour for a couple of months. As we will discuss in short order, the course is so challenging but features a history of winners with various skill sets. While the course is long, Jason Dufner and Matt Kuchar have won at Muirfield Village.

Let’s get into the course and see what types of skills are required to succeed at Jack’s course.

2023 Memorial Tournament Betting Preview

• Course: Muirfield Village
• Date: June 1-4
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,543
• Greens: Bentgrass

Muirfield Village underwent a makeover after the 2020 victory by Jon Rahm. The course was lengthened by 100 yards, re-seeded, and greens were redesigned. The small greens were already a challenge to deal with but are now surrounded by even more difficult bunkers to contend with. In total, there are 68 bunkers to negotiate throughout the course, and 13 holes have some form of water in play.

The course is very long and the rough is very penal. Missing fairways will force players to gouge the ball out and go into scramble mode. Finding fairways is of paramount importance, as approaching greens with irons is vital to success at this course.

The greens are small but treacherous to deal with. In 2020, they were re-contoured and the changes have not made scoring any easier over the last couple of years. Smaller greens mean more scrambling opportunities and these greens are surrounded by bunkers. Sand saves will be a statistic we use while modeling, if not to just eliminate players who cannot handle greenside sand. I am looking at your Corey Conners.

As usual, the most difficult holes on the course are Par 4’s that fall into the 450-500 yard bucket. The 18th is quite the bear, possessing a nearly 25% bogey rate. The tournament will not end until the winner clears this final hurdle.

The Par 3’s average about 198 yards, with the 16th being the biggest test. At about 200 yards, 20% of outcomes are bogeys, and added to the 18th, the home stretch of this course will require a lot of nerve and excellent golf.

The Par 5’s are the four easiest holes on the course and present players with the best opportunity at scoring for the week. While the added length might force a few more layups, players can dial in wedges to vital scoring opportunities. As is the case with most tournaments, players must hold serve on the more challenging holes and take advantage of the scoring holes. With the final score likely to be just inside double-digits, feasting on these holes could be enough if otherwise staying out of trouble.

That said, SG: Approach, Fairways, SG: OTT, and Par 4: 450-500 are going to be key stats. We will surely include sand saves, Proximity 175-200 yards, and putting as well as SG: Par 5. With those categories in mind, let’s pick a few golfers to keep our eye on for this tournament.

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Scottie Scheffler +600

Yes. Including Scottie Scheffler in golfers to watch feels a bit silly. Obviously, nobody would be surprised if he won this tournament. That said, outright betting is not the only consideration for every golf tournament.

I am only bringing Scottie up because his form has been sensational over the last two months with respect to almost everything except putting. When Scheffler was rolling, the putts were rolling in as well. Nothing has changed about his dominant ball-striking and his supreme prowess off the tee. Instead, many putts that were falling last year are just not falling this year. If Scottie putted even average last week, he would have rolled over the entire field at the Colonial.

So, maybe not for an outright bet, but we are no longer hanging on to Scheffler for one-and-done. If you have him, use him. I will be scanning websites for possible matchups, 3-balls, and other props that are well-priced given his ball-striking as of late. For DraftKings, if there is any way that he is lower-owned than the other studs at the top of the board again, I will be hitting the lock button.

Jason Day +3000

After a phenomenal win to return to the winner’s circle at the Byron Nelson, Jason Day missed the cut at the PGA Championship. I don’t think anyone was surprised that all of the emotion surrounding that victory led to a bit of a letdown week for the Aussie. Still, the extremely difficult course conditions made things even more difficult. That said, with a nice week off to regain his bearings, we cannot ignore Day’s recent form.

Jason has been eating Par 4’s in our target range alive over his last 36 rounds, and his short game has been second to none. He sits in the top ten in putting, ARG, and sand saves. When scrambling is required at Muirfield, we can trust Day to survive and advance with a well-timed par save.

His approach numbers never seem to be great at this course, but his approach numbers recently have been stellar (except the PGA Championship). I think with regained health and renewed confidence, 30/1 is a nice price to pay for Day. He will be in consideration.

Shane Lowry +5000

As a course that comps well to Firestone Country Club, the defunct site of a WGC event, Shane Lowry profiles well. Shane just finished 12th at the PGA Championship on the back of a great weekend at a wildly-challenging course. While Muirfield won’t be quite that difficult, we often turn to Shane when conditions aren’t great.

The issue with Shane is a very shaky putter. The speed of these very small greens feels like a mitigating factor for players that struggle with putting. If many putts are short after bunker shots or chips, Lowry might be able to get away with a recent dose of poor form with the flat stick.

I think we consider him here as an outright bet and maybe as a top finisher bet as well.

Matt Kuchar +10000

Trivia question… Which golfer leads the field in strokes gained around the green and sand saves? Well, yeah, I mean…

Of course, the answer is Matt Kuchar. The savvy veteran is making hay with an incredible short game to mask his difficulty with length. While I am not sure the former winner at this event has enough firepower to win the event, could we consider him as a top finisher? Maybe a few matchups? I think so.

He will be in consideration on DraftKings and in the props markets for me when I can find him matched with less steady golfers.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images