Mets vs. Phillies Odds, Picks, & Prediction for Friday, August 6th
Mets vs. Phillies Odds
| New York Mets Odds | -102 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -116 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Date | Friday, Aug. 6 |
| Time | 7:05 pm ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds accurate as of Friday at BetMGM | |
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On Friday evening, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies will begin a crucial three game, divisional series at Citizens Bank Park. Entering play, the Mets hold a half-game lead over the surging Phillies for first place in the National League East. The starting pitching matchup in the series opener will feature Marcus Stroman for New York against Kyle Gibson.
New York Mets
Stroman has fantastic surface-level numbers on the year with a 2.80 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. However, a deeper-dive reveals a 4.47 xERA and a 3.49 FIP, suggesting that regression could manifest over the final two calendar months of the regular season. Stroman possesses elite command, ranking in the 89th percentile with a 5.6 percent walk-rate. Yet, a 20.2 strikeout-percentage that ranks only in the 26th percentile makes it unlikely that he will be able to finish the year with a sub-3.00 ERA. Stroman relies heavily on his sinker—throwing it 44.7 percent of the time in 2021. There is nothing inherently wrong with placing so much emphasis on pitching to contact, but it does leave Stroman vulnerable to stretches of poor luck on balls in play, even if he is inducing weak contact. Over his last seven starts, bettors would be hard-pressed to find a pitcher inducing weaker contact than Stroman, who owns a phenomenal 5.0 barrel-percentage and a 33.3 hard-hit rate. Still, during this span, he owns a 3.93 ERA, in no small part because of an unlucky .331 BABIP against him.
Philadelphia Phillies
Over the last two weeks, the Phillies offense ranks second-best in strikeout-percentage, third in walk-rate and OPS, and ninth in ISO. Rhys Hoskins has a .394 batting average with three home runs and 11 RBI in his last 10 games. Bryce Harper is quietly emerging as a legitimate Most Valuable Player candidate in the National League and has a .452/.603/.881 slash line since July 23. The stars in this Philadelphia lineup are playing extremely well. This is an offense that is firing on all cylinders and shows no signs of slowing down.
Gibson was traded from the Texas Rangers to the Phillies ahead of the trade deadline in his first start with his new club, he made easy work of a weak Pittsburgh Pirates lineup—turning in 6.2 innings of work and allowing only two earned runs. Philadelphia fans are hoping that a change of scenery will get Gibson back on track, considering that he posted a 6.26 ERA and a 5.47 FIP in his final four starts with the Rangers. His 2.86 ERA on the season remains excellent, but bettors should not ignore his 3.69 FIP and 4.16 xFIP, which indicate that more regression could be on the way, especially with half of his remaining starts coming at the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.
Betting Picks: Phillies Moneyline, Under 9.5
Still, Gibson has a chance to turn in a great performance tonight in his first home outing with his new team. The Mets have some big names in their lineup, but as a unit, this group ranks only 26th in OPS over the last week and 24th in OPS over the last 14 days.
Stroman against Gibson is a relatively equal matchup on the mound. Philadelphia has a significantly better offense in recent weeks and has better bullpen metrics over the last 30 days. Bettors should consider backing the Phillies in this one as they attempt to move into first place in the division.
Pick: Phillies ML (-116)
In night games in 2021, Citizens Bank Park has graded slightly below average in terms of offensive production. The public has been betting the moneyline up since it opened, perhaps because this venue has traditionally been more hitter-friendly than it has displayed this year. A few articles are being circulated that are over-emphasizing the differences between Stroman and Gibson’s ERA and xERA. Double-digit runs seems to be too high of a price with two very capable starting pitchers on the mound here, especially when factoring in that New York’s offense has struggled mightily recently.
At first pitch tonight, the playing conditions should be relatively neutral with a temperature in the low-80s and moderate humidity. The wind is blowing out towards center field, but this fact alone should not entice bettors to hop on the over at such a high price. The under has value in this one.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-110)
Image Credit: Imagn