2023 Mexico Open: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown
This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Mexico Open. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!
After an exciting final day in the Zurich Classic, the PGA moves over to Mexico for the second Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta. Jon Rahm won a close one last season, holding off Tony Finau and company to break a long winless streak. Winless streaks are not a thing for Jon Rahm at the moment, with oddsmakers all but declaring Rahm the winner for this one. Let’s preview the betting odds, field, course, and then highlight a few golfers.
2023 Mexico Open at BetMGM Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – April 24th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
| Golfer | Odds (4/24) |
|---|---|
| Jon Rahm | +250 |
| Tony Finau | +750 |
| Wyndham Clark | +2000 |
| Gary Woodland | +2800 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | +2800 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +2800 |
| Byeong Hun An | +3300 |
| Alex Noren | +4000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +4000 |
| Stephan Jaegar | +4000 |
| Aaron Rai | +4500 |
| Beau Hossler | +4500 |
| Ben Martin | +5000 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +5000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +5000 |
Last season, Jon Rahm won the initial Mexico Open at Vidanta Villarta in epic fashion.
This season, will anyone compete? The field strength is marvelously weaker given the placement on the PGA Tour schedule. Rahm is only joined by Tony Finau in the OWGR Top 50. Instead, the next tier of golfers find themselves with shorter odds than we’ve ever seen. With the Wells Fargo on the horizon as an elevated event, will Jon Rahm crush the field? Will somebody take advantage of the weaker field and make a name for themselves at Vidanta Villarta?
2023 Mexico Open Betting Preview
- Course: Vidanta Villarta
- Date: April 27 – 31
- Par: 71
- Yardage: 7,456
- Greens: Paspalum
Vidanta Villarta is very long for a Par 71 and was always expected to play as a bomber’s course. Last season, the results didn’t disqualify that thought, with players like Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Kurt Kitayama, and Cameron Champ all playing very well.
The course layout is unique. There are four par fives and five par threes. The course was lengthened for the event last year, as two par fives were made into par fours. Since Vidanta Villarta is not at elevation like Chapultepec, the course’s length will not be mitigated like the previous site of the Mexico Open.
The entire course is paspalum with very little rough to be concerned about in this open format. The fairways are very generous, and bombers will be able to open fire. Further, five of the par fours are north of 475 yards. Distance is going to play this week on Tour.
Scoring is obviously important with four par fives and a reachable par four. This will lead to players that perform well on par fives and/or make plenty of birdies having a pretty distinct advantage.
Finally, the course has 106 bunkers. Sand saves can finally be incorporated into a model, as well as short game and/or scrambling. Players will need to get up and down to keep pace on the weekend.
We will be looking at SG: Approach, OTT, driving distance, SG: Par 5, putting, and sand saves.
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Golfers To Watch This Week
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
Jon Rahm +250
I mean, duh. Right? If we could bet golf where price never mattered, who else would you take in this field?
Unfortunately, we must be price-conscious. That said, how can we get exposure to Jon Rahm at an event he clearly wants to play? We should likely look at his matchups when they are posted and consider him for one-and-done. About OAD though, it might still be wise to save him for a tournament with a far larger prize pool.
Wyndham Clark +2000
After a strong performance with partner Beau Hossler, Wyndham Clark finds himself as one of the favorites this week in Mexico. Yes, let’s read that one more time. Wyndham Clark is a favorite this week.
Clark is top five in approach, SG: Par 5, BOB%, and Eagles. He is 8th in driving distance. He seems to check many of the boxes we will look for in this tournament. Coming in with confidence, Clark will seek his first win on tour.
Ben An +3300
Ben An has found form over his last string of tournaments, which has him trending in the right direction. At Valero, An gained 10.7 strokes T2G. An is 11th in driving distance, 7th in BOB%, and top 10 in sand saves and eagles.
An will need to putt well to have a chance at this event. I cannot believe I am considering him at 33/1, but it seems like An is one of the best-formed golfers in the field this week. If he continues to strike the ball well, the putting will eventually need to come. At 33/1, An is offering just enough upside to minimize the importance of his putter over the course of the tournament.
Will Gordon +5500
Will Gordon checks the distance box at a course that seems to favor the longer hitters. He is top 20 in both approach and SG: OTT over his last 36 rounds.
Gordon missed the cut at Valero but had four previous cuts heading into the event. In a world where Rahm doesn’t boat-race the field, Gordon might be worth a flyer given his capabilities with his ball-stroking.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.