Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds
| Dolphins Odds | -3.5 |
| Chargers Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 54.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Chargers at Sofi Stadium in a battle of two teams that are hoping to secure a postseason berth. Last weekend, the Dolphins suffered a 33-17 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, which snapped their five-game winning streak. Similarly, the Chargers will be looking to begin a new winning streak after losing in Week 13 to the Las Vegas Raiders. Oddsmakers are expecting a competitive contest between these two teams, pricing Miami as 3.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has been an afterthought in MVP conversations, likely due to a midseason injury that forced him to miss multiple weeks of action. Yet, there are few quarterbacks in the NFL in 2022 who have played better than him. Despite missing multiple games, Tagovailoa still ranks 6th among qualified signal callers in passing touchdowns, and he ranks second in the league in QBR. Advanced metrics have been equally kind to Tagovailoa, who trails only Patrick Mahomes in EPA/play among quarterbacks. In a noteworthy non-move, Miami did not elevate any offensive lineman from the practice squad ahead of kickoff on Sunday, making it likely that left tackle Terron Armstead will be back on the field after missing last week’s loss against the 49ers. Armstead is one of the most skilled pass- and run-blockers in football, and would be a tremendous boon to this offense if he is able to suit up.
Defensively, the Dolphins still have significant room to improve over the final month of the regular season, but they have made positive strides in recent games – ranking 11th in defensive EPA/play since Week 7. Entering play, Miami is nearing full health, with edge rusher Trey Flowers being the only injury to report, and Flowers has not played since Week 6 before being placed on injured reserve. The Dolphins could have one of their better defensive performances of the season in this spot.
Los Angeles Chargers
Los Angeles is less fortunate, when it comes to the injury report. Offensive lineman Rashawn Slater last played in Week 3 and is on injured reserve. Wide receiver Jalen Guyton is also on injured reserve, and has not played since Week 3. Offensive lineman Trey Pipkins is listed as doubtful for tonight’s contest after not participating in practice all week. Outside of Corey Linsley and Jamaree Salyer, this offensive line is extremely weak, which has contributed to this group’s offensive struggles of late. Since Week 6, the Chargers rank 27th among all teams in offensive EPA/play.
On the defensive side of the ball, this team is also suffering. Cornerback Bryce Callahan, Safety Derwin James Jr. and defensive lineman Sebastian Joseph-Day are each listed as doubtful for this contest after none of them practiced on Friday. The result is a secondary unit that is completely devoid of talent against one of the premier passing attacks in the entire league. Already one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, it could be nearly impossible to slow down Miami in this spot if none of the aforementioned players are able to take the field.
Dolphins vs. Chargers – Picks & Predictions
Per Warren Sharp, the Chargers allow 20-plus yard plays to their opponent at a rate higher than any other team in the NFL. The Dolphins have the second-highest rate of 20-plus yard plays on offense, making them a particularly difficult contain for this Los Angeles defense. Furthermore, the Chargers will be without one of the best safeties in the league tonight, with Derwin James Jr. being listed as doubtful as of this writing. Miami will face little, if any, resistance on the offensive end of the field this evening. Expect Tua Tagovailoa and company to hang a large number on this injury-depleted Los Angeles defense. Take the over on their team total in this spot.
PICK: Miami Dolphins o29.5 points team total (-110, DraftKings)