Million Dollar Musings: Tuesday, September 18th

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2018-09-18 21:16:09 Premium Content Part of the product SimLabs+

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Tuesday, September 18th

Happy Tuesday! We have a 14-game slate packed with aces tonight. The bats are not easy to find, with only one game starting with a total over 9 runs and a lot of pitchers parks on the slate. What we do have is a load of great pitchers up top tonight. I’ll give a few thoughts on each and then cliff note this group of aces before moving on to the cheaper options.

TUESDAY NIGHT PITCHING

ACES, ACES, ACES, ACES, ACES (FIVE GUYS!)

Aaron Nola vs Mets – Nola is going through his roughest stretch of the season right now, allowing 11 runs in his last three starts, and seeing his ERA rise from 2.10 all the way up to 2.42. Oh the humanity! The culprit in this rocky stretch has been home runs. He has seen a goofy 41.2% HR/FB rate over the past three starts, with seven home runs allowed, which is almost half of his season total. He had allowed 8 home runs in his first 27 starts, and now has allowed seven in his last three. There is no question that there is a ton of fluke in these recent home runs, but it can’t be entirely chalked up as a nothing, as his usual 25% hard hit rate is up at 41% over these three starts. But still, 41% hard hits is not an uncommon number for most major league starters, and the worst of the worst don’t even see a 20% HR/FB rate.