Vikings vs. Lions Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Vikings vs. Lions Odds
| Vikings Odds | +2.5 |
| Lions Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 53.5 |
| Date | Sun, Dec. 11 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings will travel to the Motor City to battle the Detroit Lions in an intra-division affair. Entering play, Minnesota is 10-2, with a five game lead over Detroit for first place in the NFC North division standings. When these two foes met in Week 3, the Lions led by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but the Vikings scored two touchdowns in the final eight minutes to earn a come-from-behind victory. In the rematch, oddsmakers have Detroit listed as the betting favorite, pricing the Lions as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Minnesota Vikings
Through 13 weeks of the season, Minnesota’s only two losses have come against the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys – two teams that have a combined 16-3 record with their starting quarterback healthy this fall. Still, many pundits will point to Minnesota’s underwhelming advanced metrics to argue that they have been more lucky than good in 2022. Notably, the Vikings rank 18th in offensive EPA/play in their 12 games. Yet, their 9-0 record in one-score games is supported by the fact that this offense ranks 7th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play in the fourth quarters of games this year. Further, Minnesota has committed the 5th-fewest penalties in the league and owns the 3rd-best turnover differential of any team. Overall, the Vikings have endured the 6th-toughest strength of schedule and own the 5th-highest strength of victory, per Ben Goessling. The primary concern for this unit on Sunday is the fact that left tackle Christian Darrisaw is once again expected to be on the sidelines as he recovers from a concussion. Darrisaw’s replacement, Blake Brandel, has allowed five sacks and 10 quarterback pressures across the last three weeks.
Ahead of kickoff, Cameron Dantzler has been activated from injured reserve, and will play for the first time since Week 9. From Week 1 to Week 8, with Danztler playing the majority of the team’s defensive snaps, Minnesota ranked 16th in overall defensive EPA/play and 13th in Dropback EPA/play. From Week 10 to Week 13, the Vikings regressed to 19th in overall defensive EPA/play and 22nd in Dropback EPA/play. In this matchup, the Vikings will be missing defensive tackle Jonathan Bullard, who did not practice at all during the week due to a biceps injury. His absence could hurt Minnesota’s ability to stop the run. Safety Harrison Smith is listed as questionable, but practiced in a limited capacity on both Thursday and Friday – making it more probable than not that he will be on the field on Sunday.
Detroit Lions
Though the Lions are below the .500 mark on the year, they have played much better football since the beginning of November – winning four of their last five contests, with their lone defeat coming by three points on Thanksgiving to the Buffalo Bills. Since Week 9, Detroit ranks 5th in the NFL in offensive EPA/play. In that span, Jared Goff has thrown for seven touchdowns and only one interception. Running back D’Andre Swift’s presence is only likely to help this group flourish even more. Per Clevta, when Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown have been on the field together this year, Detroit ranks 4th among all teams in offensive EPA/play. This is in stark contrast to ranking 23rd in offensive EPA/play when one of Swift or St. Brown is on the sidelines.
During Detroit’s last five games, the defense ranks 12th in the league in pressure rate and has increased their per-game sack rate from 1.6 to 2.2, according to Jeremy Reisman. However, this unit is dealing with some injuries ahead of Sunday’s action against the Vikings. Linebacker Derrick Barnes, one of the team’s better run defenders, has been ruled out with a knee injury. Cornerbacks Will Harris and Jeff Okudah are both listed as questionable. Harris did not practice at all on Friday, but Okudah was able to log a limited session. Overall, the Lions rank 14th in defensive EPA/play since Week 9, but the absence of a few notable players on this side of the ball could make life challenging in this intra-division affair.
Vikings vs. Lions – Picks & Predictions
Bettors would be wise to wait for final inactive reports for this contest before deciding on which side of the spread or total they prefer. However, bettors should feel comfortable, as of this writing, locking-in a play on D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards. In his return to action in Week 13, he led the backfield in both attempts and rushing yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, receiving more snaps on rushing plays than Jamaal Williams in the process. The absence of Jonathan Bullard on Minnesota’s defensive line only increases the likelihood that Swift finds some room to run on the ground in this one – take the over on his rushing yards prop.
PICK: D’Andre Swift o34.5 rushing yards (-120, MGM)