MLB Daily Grind Down April 15th

by Kyle Koch (Jackandsoda) Last Updated 2013-04-15 19:03:17

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.

While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Tonight we have eight games. Remember the fewer games the more overlay there is. It is very important to think outside the box on these nights. Quite a few people will be stacking the Mets and Rockies tonight in a game thats OU is set a 10 and there are a few pitcher going who look like locks to get the win. Jimmy Rollins gets my nod as player of the day. He started the season off hot but has since cooled down. He draws a tasty matchup tonight vs. a pitcher who he is 6-18 with 2 HR and 0 Ks to get him flying in the right way. Here is to another day in the MLB grind. Good luck!

St. Louis at Pittsburgh

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
STL BvP		STL vs R		PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7.5

• Favored -117

Pitchers

• Home James McDonald got touched up on the road in his last start. He looked solid in his first. He was a full stride better at home last year posting a 2.73 ERA. He catches a STL team batting .260 on the season and only .219 vs. him. The game should be low scoring and he gets enough Ks. In Play

• Away Lance Lynn is favored to walk away with the win in what appears to be a low scoring game. His road ERA was 4.15 a year ago but he was a 1.08 pitcher in this park in 1 start last year. He catches an ice cold Pirates team batting just .203 on the season and .259 as a team vs. him. His first start was rough in ARI. Go figure but he pulled it together at home last time recording 10 Ks. The pirates have 99Ks on the season. Target

Batters

• Home Garrett Jones is swinging a sneaky good stick batting .314 on the season. He is 3-12 vs. Lynn. Starling Marte is 1-2 vs. Lynn and has been the Pirates only consistent player. Clint Barmes is 4-13 vs. Lynn if you are looking for a super cheap option.

• Away Keep your eye out for a red hot Matt Adams. He is 11-18 with 3 HR on the season. If he gets the start then put him in your LU. Allen Craig has the best BvPs vs. McDonald. He is 4-13 with 3 XBHs.

Chicago White Sox at Toronto

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
CHW BvP		CHW vs L		TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 9

• Favored TOR -127

Pitchers

• Home They have not been pretty but TOR won in Mark Buehrle ’s first two starts. His ERA sits at 10.24. He catches a CHW team batting .242 on the season at home where his ERA is historically better both in Chicago and Miami. What worries me about Mark Buerle is that his K/9 is diminishing. There is a large amount of risk and little upside to playing him now. Avoid

• Away Gavin Floyd first two starts are in line with what he has done for his career. He is a matchup play. His ERA gets better on the road and last year it was 3.93 in away games. He gave up 4 Rs in his only start in TOR last year. He faces a TOR team batting .227 on the season and .270 vs. him. Avoid

Batters

• Home TOR lost their best weapon Jose Reyes which will effect everyone numbers. Brett Lawrie might come back tonight so watch for that. He is 1-3 vs. Floyd. Adam Lind is 6-16 also but batting only .138 on the season. Edwin Encarnacion and J.P. Arencibia have positive numbers also.

• Away Buehrle pitched most of his career in CHW so there is almost no BvP data vs. him Alex Rios ha taken him yard in the past and is batting .362 on the season. Paul Konerko hits lefties well. The rookie, Conor Gillaspie is off to hot start but normally sits versus lefties.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
PHI BvP		PHI vs R		CIN BvP		CIN vs L
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7

• Favored PHI -120

Pitchers

• Home Bronson Arroyo has given up 7 ER in 12 IP. That is about par for his career. It is not a great matchup today vs. Lee. The low OU and the his home ERA 3.89 make him a sneaky play if you think he can get the win but his lackluster K/9 means there is not enough upside vs. a PHI team batting .275 vs. him. Avoid

• Away Cliff Lee has been dominate in his first 2 starts. He road ERA was a 2.83 a year ago which was better than his home ERA. He catches a Reds team batting .253 on the season and .255 vs. him. He went four 8 IP in both of his first two starts with 14 Ks. Those are huge base numbers. Target

Batters

• Home Joey Votto numbers a surprisingly good vs. the left-hander. He is 5-13 with 1 HR. Brandon Phillips is 8-26 with 1 HR vs. him also and “Todd Frazier(player-profile)”:/players/Todd_Frazier-11254’s is 1-3. I would avoid Shin-Soo Choo today. He is batting just .250 vs. lefties.

• Away Jimmy Rollins is 6-18 vs. Arroyo with 2 HR . Michael Young is also 5-16 and swinging a hot stick. The Left-handers, Chase Utley and a heating up Ryan Howard also have positive numbers and love hitting righties. Domonic Brown could be a nice value play. He is 3-5 vs. Arroyo with 2 2Bs.

Washington at Miami

BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN
WSN BvP		WSN vs L		MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window

Las Vegas

• OU 7.5

• Favored WAS -177

Pitchers

• Home Wade LeBlanc has put together 2 nice starts in a row. He has given up 4 ER in 11 IP with 10 Ks. The Ks are higher than his career average, though. He faces a WAS team batting .243 on the season and .308 vs. him. His price has probably elevated passed his ceiling. Avoid

• Away Jordan Zimmerman would be a CY Young candidate if he made all his starts on the road. His ERA was 2.36 in away games. His Ks were down in his first two games but his K/9 was over 7 a year ago. He catches the dismal Marlins batting .204 on the season but a solid .276 vs. Him. The lack of Ks and the BAA vs him scare me enough to not say target but the huge line and road ERA are also hard to ignore. He should get the win. In Play

Batters

• Home Giancario Stanton has 3 HRs in only 14 AB vs. Zimmerman. He is back tonight then use him. Placido Polanco continues to end up in my LUs on site where he is very cheap. He always gets positive points and gets another favorable matchup today. Justin Ruggiano and Greg Dobbs splits are positive also if you are looking for value.

• Away Bryce Harper has just 1 H in 11 Abs versus left-handers this year but is 2-6 vs. Leblanc. The BvP sample sizes are all small but mainly positive. I like the way Jason Werth has been swinging lately and I think Ryan Zimmerman is due. He is 2-2 vs. Leblanc.

Continue Reading Part Two of Today’s Day Games MLB Grind Down Article Here