MLB Daily Grind Down April 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Ian Kinsler gets my nod today as the play of the day so you might want to avoid him. We have a full schedule tonight and we find a good split of great pitchers and bad ones going so it should take a high score to take down things tonight. That means every selection will be critical. Here is the Grind Down to help you get ready for another Friday night of baseball.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
| Atlanta | Pittsburgh | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PNC Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Tim Hudson (2-0 REC, 2.50 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | Wandy Rodriguez (1-0 REC, 1.00 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 23-117 (0.197) H/AB, 0.513 OPS, 0 HR, 23 Ks | PvB | 31-124 (0.25) H/AB, 0.758 OPS, 3 HR, 23 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 85 IP, 3.28 ERA, 0.227 BAA, 4 K/9 | HOME | 117.2 IP, 3.59 ERA, 0.258 BAA, 6 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
ATL BvP  | ATL vs L | PIT BvP | PIT vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7
- Favored ATL -122
Pitchers
- Home Wandy Rodriguez left his last appearance early with an injury. After skipping a start, he is ready to take the mound at home where he has always been a better pitcher. He draws an ATL team that just keeps winning. They are batting .260 over the last 7 days and have their homerun stroke working with 14 longballs in that time. He is an injured pitcher facing a hot team. Avoid
- Away Tim Hudson was a better pitcher on the road last year than he was at home and takes the mound in a pitcher friendly park today. He has looked sharp over his last 2 giving up only 2 ER, 7 H, in 13.1 IP with 10 Ks. PIT bats are coming alive at home and they are batting .318 over the last 7 days but they are a team that has 122 Ks on the season so the upside is there. In Play
Batters
- Home Garrett Jones and Pedro Alvarez have good BvPs vs. Hudson. I have been high on Jones for a minute. He is still cheap and batting .333. Andrew McCutchen has been making good contact at home also. I would stay away from Starling Marte. He has seen his average drop over the homestand and catches a righty today.
- Away Chris Johnson is a great play today. He is batting .500 vs. Left-handers,500 on the road and .400 vs. Wandy. The line is only 7 so I would not go too crazy with the Braves. Evan Gattis is another solid play. It is never a bad idea to play Justin Upton.
St. Louis at Philadelphia
| St. Louis | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Jaime Garcia (1-0 REC, 1.86 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | Roy Halladay (1-2 REC, 7.63 ERA, 6.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 8-49 (0.163) H/AB, 0.531 OPS, 1 HR, 10 Ks | PvB | 34-135 (0.252) H/AB, 0.704 OPS, 5 HR, 27 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 61 IP, 5.02 ERA, 0.298 BAA, 6.6 K/9 | HOME | 77 IP, 4.56 ERA, 0.257 BAA, 7.6 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| STL BvP | STL vs R | PHI BvP | PHI vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 7.5
- Favored STL -115
Pitchers
- Home Roy Halladay came back from the dead in his last start. I am not sure I read to much into it since it was against MIA. Lets see what he can do with a strong STL offense today. The Cardinals have been getting hits in bunches. Doc has been giving them up that way. What worries me is the dropping K/9 number but he catches a STL team that’s batting average has been dropping and Vegas has faith that it will be a low scoring game. In Play
- Away Jaime Garcia ends up in my LUs because he often seems undervalued to me. He has been stellar in his first 3 starts with an 1.86 ERA and 19 Ks. His 5.02 road ERA from a year ago raises some concern for me but he pitched well in ARI to start the season. The Phillies are batting only .131 on the season vs. left-handers and only .163 vs. him. Target
Batters
- Home John Mayberry Jr. is the only Phillie with good BvPs vs. Garcia. He could be a sneaky GPP play. I do not trust Ryan Howard or Chase Utley today although both haven been hot and Jimmy Rollins is slumping again.
- Away Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran have only 3 combined HRs on the season and are batting only .240 together. Carlos Beltran has great BvPs again today but I simply do not trust the slumping hitter. If Matt Adams gets the nod then play him because he has been hot and is 1-1 vs. Roy
LA Dodgers at Baltimore
| LA Dodgers | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-1 REC, 2.89 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | Jason Hammel (2-1 REC, 4.34 ERA, 5.1 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 0-0 (0) H/AB, 0 OPS, 0 HR, 0 Ks | PvB | 40-147 (0.272) H/AB, 0.837 OPS, 5 HR, 26 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 0 | HOME | 55 IP, 3.44 ERA, 0.233 BAA, 8.2 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| LAD BvP | LAD vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored BAL -123
Pitchers
- Home Jason Hammel does not excite me even though he slated to get the win. He does not strikeout enough. He is giving up to many runs and he is a worse pitcher at home than he is on the road. The Dodgers are batting .287 on the road. Avoid
- Away Hyun-Jin Ryu last start is what the Dodgers’ expect to get from him in the future. He gets another tough draw on the road vs. a hot hitting BAL team batting .262 on the season. His Grind Down remains the same. He has 9.00 K/9 upside but is a gamble. In Play
Batters
- Home I do not like to look at the BvPs for pitchers who have spent a great deal of time in COL because I think they can be misleading. I like the Dodgers two hottest hitters Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. Both of them get the lefty/righty matchup today.
- Away There is no BvP data on the rookie but I think you can feel safe riding the hot hand of Adam Jones. Matt wieters had a great game yesterday and normally hits lefties well.
NY Yankees at Toronto
| NY Yankees | Toronto | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Centre | 7:07 PM | ||||||
| Andy Pettitte (2-0 REC, 1.20 ERA, 6.1 Avg IP) | Brandon Morrow (0-1 REC, 4.60 ERA, 5.2 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 37-145 (0.255) H/AB, 0.759 OPS, 3 HR, 30 Ks | PvB | 45-218 (0.206) H/AB, 0.67 OPS, 6 HR, 68 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 31.2 IP, 4.26 ERA, 0.266 BAA, 6.3 K/9 | HOME | 77.2 IP, 3.01 ERA, 0.226 BAA, 8.1 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYY BvP | NYY vs R | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored TOR -110
Pitchers
- Home Brandon Morrow one bad start this year was vs. DET and while I forgive him I do not think he will fare much better vs. an NYY team batting .302 vs. right-handers on the year. That coupled with the fact that he was a better pitcher on the road than at home last year and I think it is far too risky. Avoid
- Away Andy Pettitte will be good for his team when he can take the hill but he is always a risk to get injured every time you take him. TOR is batting a dismal .229 on the season. His Ks seem to be a little down but TOR is a team that can cure that. I like him as a second starter. In Play
Batters
- Home Jose Buatista has had a pretty nice career versus Andy. It is hard for me to recommend anyone from a team that has only scored 24 Rs in their last 8 games. Munenori Kawasaki has been producing if he still cheap. He has hit lefties at the same clip as righties.
- Away I like all the left-handers in this one and I might be willing to squeeze in Kevin Youkilis because he has been hot and if he gets ahold of one I think there will be traffic. I would avoid Vernon Wells he has had some tasty splits the last couple of days and has done nothing. His BAA vs. Morrow are not good.
Kansas City at Boston
| Kansas City | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| James Shields (1-2 REC, 3.43 ERA, 6.2 Avg IP) | Clay Buchholz (3-0 REC, 0.41 ERA, 6.0 Avg IP) | ||||||
| PvB | 55-201 (0.274) H/AB, 0.846 OPS, 9 HR, 35 Ks | PvB | 8-28 (0.286) H/AB, 0.786 OPS, 1 HR, 6 Ks | ||||
| ROAD | 105.2 IP, 3.83 ERA, 0.238 BAA, 8.1 K/9 | HOME | 94.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 0.284 BAA, 5.3 K/9 | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| KCR BvP | KCR vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8
- Favored BOS -132
Pitchers
- Home Clay Buchholz is locked in right now. Not only has he pitched well but it has been versus some good hitting teams. He has yet to give up a run at home this year. His ERA was in the 4s a year ago so I am not sure how much of his success is legitimate and how much can be attributed to a player who is streaking. If his price has gone up too much then I would not pay it for that reason. Either way, he looks like a solid play versus a KC team that has been struggling over the last 7 days batting only .237. Target
- Away James Shields pitched 8.1 IP of shutout baseball in his only start at Fenway Park a year ago. He has pitched as well as you expect to start the season. BOS is batting .286 on the season versus right-handers and they have hit him very well in the past. I am not sure I trust his 3.87 road ERA. Avoid
Batters
- Home Dustin Pedroia has good BvPs versus shields Jacoby Elisbury has also taken him deep twice. Shane Victorino is batting .357 versus right-handers on the season.
- Away Alex Gordon has great BvPs vs. Clay today and is batting .350 on the season and he draws the righty/lefty matchup today. Lorenzo Cain is on a nice string of games also.