Clay Buchholz Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Blake Snell could fall into a couple of categories. The Rays are tied for the second wild card, but has thrown just two major league innings since July 21st. He can’t possibly be considered for a normal workload and is far too expensive for anything but. Similarly, Jhoulys Chacin has not faced more than 15 batters in an outing for the Red Sox.

Chandler Shepherd, Caleb Smith and Alex Young are all in their first full season. Shepherd hasn’t reached 120 innings on the year, but has been limited to four innings (19 batters) or less in all three major league outings. Smith is above 150 innings for the first time in his professional career and hasn’t necessarily been more limited, but has just a 21 K%, 6.08 ERA, 6.03 FIP and .342 xwOBA over the last 30 days. Alex Young is right around his workload for the last three seasons. He’s interesting due to a 12.7 SwStr% with a .308 xwOBA and 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but his estimators are all well above his ERA due to a .245 BABIP and more than 20% of his runs being unearned.

Clay Buchholz is not young and does have a favorable matchup (Orioles 85 wRC+ vs RHP), but he has been injured and bad (13.6 K%, ERA & estimators all above five, .366 xwOBA, 12.3% Barrels/BBE). The Orioles also pounded him for seven runs and two HRs in his last start.

Clay Buchholz has an 8.7 SwStr% that suggests a few more strikeouts (1.4 K/SwStr), but in either case, he’s been hit fairly hard (12.2% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board). His .365 xwOBA is three points below Drew Smyly for the worst mark on the board as well with an ERA (5.31) and estimators all above five. He’s catching his old team at a good time. The Red Sox were shut down in Toronto last night and have just a team 41 wRC+ with a 10.7 HR/FB over the last seven days, but a 111 wRC+ and 11.6 K-BB% vs RHP this year. The Red Sox (5.67) are the lowest of four teams above 5.5 implied runs tonight. Potential backers may consider that recent frustrations could cause lower ownership rates tonight, but it’s another strong spot. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Buchholz this year. The Sox will rest, arguably, their best bat against RHP tonight (Rafael Devers), though that will also move a very affordable Brock Holt (125 wRC+, .131 ISO, .338 xwOBA vs RHP) into the second spot, making a stack with Mookie Betts (142 wRC+, .256 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (148 wRC+, .252 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (106 wRC+, .190 ISO) more affordable for those betting on some positive regression.

Clay Buchholz has allowed just four runs over 11.2 innings since returning from a nearly four month layoff despite walking five and striking out just six of the 41 batters he’s faced. He has a higher rate of Barrels/BBE (12.6%) than strikeouts (12.1%). Both are worst on the board. His 5.28 FIP is the lowest of all of his estimators with an 8.03 DRA and .376 xwOBA being the most damning. The negative run environment shouldn’t handicap the Rays tonight due to the lack of extremely positive run environments available on the slate, along with some offensively suppressive weather conditions around the league. While LHBs have a .374 wOBA against Buchholz this year, batters from either side of the plate are above a .340 xwOBA against him. An incredibly cheap Joey Wendle (90 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) in the leadoff spot again would be a top value bat. Austin Meadows (147 wRC+, .267 ISO) has a 264 wRC+ over the last week and would have value at less than $5K on DraftKings. Ji-Man Choi (128 wRC+, .200 ISO) is projected to bat cleanup. The Rays do not yet have a team run total due to the uncertainty of their own pitching plans, but it would be a shock if they weren’t eventually a top third or even quarter of the board offense tonight.

The Rangers face Clay Buchholz in Arlington Sunday with a 5.53 implied total. Buccholz wasn’t bad in 2018 with a 2.01 ERA / 4.01 xFIP, but over 21 innings this year he has a 4.79 ERA / 5.13 xFIP and a miniscule 12.5 K%. Since 2016 Buchholz has been slightly worse vs. RHB, but can be targeted with hitters from both sides of the plate, especially pitching in a hitter’s park like Globe Life Park. Joey Gallo (.395 xwOBA vs. RHP since 2018), Shin-Soo Choo (.394), Danny Santana (.379), Nomar Mazara (.354), Asdrubal Cabrera (.315) and Rougned Odor (.314) are all good options projected to be in the Rangers’ lineup. Choo is by far the cheapest of the bunch coming in at just $3.8k on Draftkings due to his early season struggles; he also has just a .185 xwOBA over the last 10 days. Choo has been the hottest hitter of the bunch with a .449 xwOBA over the last 10 days.

Interestingly, six pitchers (two on FanDuel, four on DraftKings) reach the $10K price point tonight, but none of them are above $10K on both sites. Carlos Carrasco is the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but just sixth most on DraftKings, where he could be of interest despite pitching at Fenway (Red Sox 115 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+, 18.6 K% vs RHP). He's pitched into the seventh inning in six straight starts and tops the board with a 16.8 SwStr%, 2.51 SIERA, and .250 xwOBA over the last month. Jack Flaherty tops the board with a 30.3 K% for the season. He's the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but just fourth most on FanDuel. He's in one of the most negative run environments tonight, but facing a Dodgers' offense with a 137 wRC+ and 4.7 K-BB% over the last seven days. Walker Beuhler is next most expensive on DraftKings on the other side of that matchup. His strikeout rate is up to 28.8% over the last month. His .281 xwOBA is second best on the board this season and he's completed six innings with one run or less in three of his last four starts. He'll be facing a predominantly RH lineup and same-handed batters have just a .257 wOBA against him. Stephen Strasburg is the other $10K pitcher on FanDuel. He's pitched in one major league game since June 8th and nowhere in over a month. Noah Syndergaard has just a 19.3 K% over the last month, but the same 14.4 SwStr% as his season mark over that span, which is also tied for highest on the board. His .277 xwOBA for the season is best on the board (even lower over the last month - .269) along with the lowest aEV (85.2 mph), Barrels/BBE (2.4%) and 95+ mph EV (27.1%). He's in the best spot among the high priced pitchers at home against the Giants (75 wRC+, 17.2 K-BB% on the road, 26 wRC+, 21.3 K-BB%, 3.5 HR/FB last seven days). Clay Buchholz has an ERA a run and a half below his SIERA and xFIP, while he's facing a contact prone offense (20.6 K% vs RHP), though the Angels are now without any of their top three hitters in an NL park. He's still difficult to process with a $10K price tag.

On a seven game slate on Thursday night, no pitcher reaches $10K on either site. Clay Buchholz is the most expensive pitcher on either site ($9.5K DK). Two pitchers exceed a 22% strikeout rate. One is Taylor Cole, who has a grand total of 18 major league innings, one start and has not exceeded 48 pitches in a major league outing. The other is Jon Gray (27.1%) with the .337 BABIP, who is facing the Braves (20.4 K% vs RHP). While he did allow four runs to the Dodgers last time out, in 35 innings since returning from the minors, he's allowed just nine ERs with a .204 BABIP and 52.4 GB%, but just a 21.5 K%. However, the arsenal has included more sliders, fewer fastballs and a 14+ SwStr% in four straight games. Anywhere outside of Coors is a park upgrade and he's gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts. It's hard not to consider him the top pitcher on this board. At .299, his xwOBA is also best on the board among those with more than one start. Another arm to consider tonight is Tanner Roark. Though it comes with just a 9.4 SwStr%, his 24.1 K% over the last month is best on the board (more than one start). His .240 xwOBA over this span is best on the board by 40 points. He's gone at least seven innings in four straight starts with just an 18.3 Hard%. His 86.8 mph aEV for the season is second best on the board to the pitcher he is facing (Luke Weaver 86.7 mph aEV). Ironically, both Gray and Roark are facing offense's who's high powered leadoff men were plunked last night and both questionable tonight. The fact that St Louis will run out a predominantly right-handed lineup plays in Roark's favor as well. Weaver (21 K%, 4.30 SIERA, .335 xwOBA) is probably a spot where some players will land for $7K in one of the most negative run environments on the board and he is a reasonable choice with at least six innings with five or more strikeouts and two runs or fewer in four of his last six starts, but Washington at full health is a difficult lineup to navigate (10.6 K-BB% vs RHP) and he will throw in a stinker every once in a while. Buchholz (20.9 K%, 4.12 SIERA, .327 xwOBA) can be considered too in San Diego (82 wRC+, 18.0 K-BB% vs RHP).

Clay Buchholz has had an impressive run for the Diamondbacks, but not as impressive as his 2.68 ERA suggests (84.9 LOB%). His heavy curveball and changeup usage (35%) results in a platoon split (RHBs .351 wOBA, 43.2 Hard%, 32.6 GB% since last season, LHBs .286 wOBA). He's visiting a park that accentuates power from either side of the plate. Eugenio Suarez (124 wRC+, .228 ISO) is a RHB who is actually the only batter in the lineup above a .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. This is the bat you want in this lineup. Joey Votto (157 wRC+, .172 ISO) can hit anyone, provided he's healthy. Other RHBs in this lineup include only Jose Peraza (87 wRC+, .102 ISO) and Phillip Ervin (94 wRC+, .156 ISO). The former bats in the leadoff spot for less than $4K on DK. Both are $2.5K or less on FanDuel.

The San Francisco Giants (4.22) are the only one of four mid-afternoon offenses above four implied runs. Clay Buchholz has allowed only a single run in each of his three starts and even struck out nine last time out, but that was against the Marlins. His other starts were in Oakland and New York (NL). His non-FIP estimators are around four and he has a league average .316 xwOBA. He hasn't been bad, but the competition has been suspect and his 89.9 mph aEV with an 11.8% Barrels/BBE are more concerning. Buchholz doesn't have much of a career platoon split and has even split his 119 HRs allowed almost exactly evenly. Today's lineup has not yet been confirmed, but among those projected, Buster Posey (110 wRC+, .106 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Andrew McCutchen (125 wRC+, .180 ISO) each exceed a 150 wRC+ and 40 Hard% over the last week and cost less than $4K on either site.