MLB Daily Grind Down May 19th Part 2
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
| Tampa Bay | Baltimore | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camden Yards | 1:35 PM | ||||||
| Matt Moore – (7-0), 2.44 ERA, 9.56 K/9, 1.12 WHIP | Chris Tillman – (3-1), 3.4 ERA, 7.06 K/9, 1.3 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (24-86 H/AB) 0.279 BA-A, 24.42 K%, 0.837 OPS-A | PvB | (23-92 H/AB) 0.25 BA-A, 18.48 K%, 0.946 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (3-0), 2.74 ERA, 4 HRA, 9.4 K/9, 1.304 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 0.75 ERA, 1 HRA, 10.5 K/9, 0.917 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
TBR BvP  | TBR vs R | BAL BvP | BAL vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored TAM -110
Pitchers
- Home Chris Tillman ERA is a full point lower this year but his WHIP is roughly the same, which makes me think that his ERA will push over the 4 mark sooner rather than later. Despite his 3.40 ERA, he is the underdog at home so that should tell you all you need to know. TAM is batting .256 on the road, .253 versus right-handers, and .299 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Matt Moore has been awesome on the seasonand he has a near perfect 7-0 record with 1 no decision. Call it a hunch but I think he gets his first loss today against a hot BAL team that bats well at home so I am fading him. He has GPP upside and will always be in play no matter what the matchup. BAL is batting .273 at home, .234 versus left-handers, and .300 over the last 7 days with 11 HRs. In Play
Batters
- Home Matt Wieters is 6-11 with 2 HRs versus Moore. Adam Jones is 5-13 with 1 HR. J.J. Hardy has an HR off of him in 14 AB. Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, and Adam Jones have all been hot producing over 20 fp in the last 7 days.
- Away Matt Joyce and Kelly Johnson are hot . Kelly Johnson is 2-3 versus Tillman with 1 HR. Evan Longoria is 7-15 with 3 HRs versus him. Ben Zobrist has 2 HRs in 21 AB.
Cincinnati at Philadelphia
| Cincinnati | Philadelphia | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizens Bank Park | 1:35 PM | ||||||
| Homer Bailey – (2-3), 3.51 ERA, 9.16 K/9, 1.15 WHIP | Jonathan Pettibone – (3-0), 3.41 ERA, 5.28 K/9, 1.28 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (24-94 H/AB) 0.255 BA-A, 20.21 K%, 0.606 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-2), 3.57 ERA, 2 HRA, 6.1 K/9, 1.528 WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 1.46 ERA, 0 HRA, 6.6 K/9, 0.973 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CIN BvP | CIN vs R | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored CIN -130
Pitchers
- Home Jonathan Pettibone is indicative of where daily fantasy is headed. He is an okay pitcher but his limited K/9 make him unplayable because his poor starts can end up yielding you negative points. CIN is batting .243 on the road, .249 versus right-handers and .297 over the last 7 days with 10 HRs. Avoid
- Away Homer Bailey made a jump a year ago into being a mid 3 ERA pitcher. Many wonder if these numbers where real. He has taken another step further this year as all of his numbers are better particularly his K/9 that has increased by 2 points. PHI is batting .246 at home, .247 versus right-handers, and .271 over the last 7 days. He has held PHI to 1 HR in 94 AB. Target
Batters
- Home PHI is cold again. If you like traditional splits then Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have them today and could both have a nice game.
- Away Joey Votto, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce are 3 names that should come up without me mentioning them. Joey Votto is red hot with 35.25 fp over the last week and Choo is batting .387 versus right-handers on the year.
Boston at Minnesota
| Boston | Minnesota | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target Field | 2:10 PM | ||||||
| John Lackey – (1-4), 4.05 ERA, 9.27 K/9, 1.46 WHIP | Pedro Hernandez – (2-0), 5.79 ERA, 4.82 K/9, 1.57 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (24-90 H/AB) 0.267 BA-A, 24.44 K%, 0.756 OPS-A | PvB | (12-20 H/AB) 0.6 BA-A, 10 K%, 1.7 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 3.38 ERA, 1 HRA, 11 K/9, 1.125 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 0 ERA, 0 HRA, 7.4 K/9, 0.818 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BOS BvP | BOS vs L | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 10
- Favored BOS -115
Pitchers
- Home I am not trying to be lazy on my analysis but I am not sure why I need to tell you that Pedro Hernandez is unplayable? He has 15 Ks in 7 apperances and an ERA of 5.79. BOS is batting .262 on the road, .239 versus left-handers, and .245 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away John Lackey is only the slight favorite and the OU is huge so Vegas does not expect him to pitch well. His K/9 is down this year which only makes him less attractive to me despite his weak opponent on the mound. MIN is batting .259 at home, .245 versus right-handers, and .260 over the last 7 days.
Batters
- Home Joe Mauer is 11-27 versus Lackey with 1 HR. Oswaldo Arcia got to him the last time they met going 2-3 with 1 HR. Both two players are batting at a high average versus right-handers. I also like Justin Morneau who has the splits in his favor today.
- Away Dustin Pedroia has a .404 batting average versus left-handers. He is 2-2 versus Hernandez. BOS as a team is 12-20 with 2 HRs so Gentlemen start your BOS stacks! Jonny Gomes has 1 HR in 1 AB versus him and it was a grand slam!
Milwaukee at St. Louis
| Milwaukee | St. Louis | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Busch Stadium | 2:15 PM | ||||||
| Kyle Lohse – (1-4), 3.49 ERA, 6.06 K/9, 1.27 WHIP | John Gast – (1-0), 6 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 1.17 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (59-127 H/AB) 0.465 BA-A, 7.87 K%, 1.283 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-0), 2.7 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| MIL BvP | MIL vs L | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored STL -127
Pitchers
- Home John Gast first game against the Mets did not go so well. he is the favorite today but I do not trust him versus a very polished MIL team. MIL is batting .238 on the road, .282 versus left-handers, and.248 over the last 7 days. Avoid
- Away Kyle Lohse does not get the run he deserves. His K/9 is a little low but he is a very solid MLB pitcher. The problem with him today is that he pitches much worse on the road and STL best hitters have some pretty sick BvPs versus him. STL is batting .270 at home, .277 versus right-handers, and .287 over the last 7 days. I would be surprised if this game does not hit the over. Avoid
Batters
- Home Carlos Beltran is 23-46 with 4 HRs versus Lohse. Matt Holliday is 8-15 with 1 HR. Just about everyone else’s numbers are positive as well and Matt Carpenter is batting .339 versus right-handed pitching on the year.
- Away Much was written about MIL ability to hit left-handers over the past week and they produced nothing. However, expect big things from them today against this young pitcher. Jean Segura has been hot producing 35.5 fp and Ryan Braun is batting .406 versus left-handers on the year.
NY Mets at Chicago Cubs
| NY Mets | Chicago Cubs | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wrigley Field | 2:20 PM | ||||||
| Dillon Gee – (2-5), 6.13 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 1.74 WHIP | Travis Wood – (4-2), 2.03 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 0.92 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (23-67 H/AB) 0.343 BA-A, 16.42 K%, 0.91 OPS-A | PvB | (11-47 H/AB) 0.234 BA-A, 21.28 K%, 0.766 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | ( W- L), ERA ERA, HR HRA, SO/9 K/9, WHIP WHIP | HOME | (0-0), 2.87 ERA, 3 HRA, 11.5 K/9, 1.149 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYM BvP | NYM vs L | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9
- Favored CHC -145
Pitchers
- Home Travis Wood has been a sneaky good play on the year. I love him today because there is not many high K players going so his low K/9 is not that big of an issue. He plays for CHC but they have a better record than NYM and NYM have been slumping as of late. NYM is batting .246 on the road, .233 versus left-handers, and .216 over the last 7 days. OU is high so there is some risk involved. In Play
- Away Why would you even bother with Dillon Gee today? He is not pitching well and has no K/9 upside. To put the nail in the coffin, CHC has a .343 BAA vs. him. CHC is batting .275 at home, .253 vs. right-handers, and .278 over the last 7 days. Avoid
Batters
- Home Everyone’s individual BvPs are low but are all positive. CHC as a team is 23-67 with 2 HRs versus Gee. David DeJesus has been CHC hottest hitter producing 21.75 fp. and is batting .304 versus right-handed pitching.
- Away Daniel Murphy and David Wright have been hot producing over 25 fp each. Ruben Tejada hits lefties well and John Buck makes a solid play in a game that has a high OU.
