MLB Daily Grind Down May 28th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit.
While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries. The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time. (any fp listed uses Fanduel’s scoring system)
Tuesdays are always a big night in the industry and while we have a couple of day games, we are going to ignore those for our purposes here since they won’t be included in any of the big qualifiers and are going to be starting here shortly anyway. Tonight’s schedule features some top aces as well as some really bad pitchers so make sure to read which players you need to be targeting tonight:
Pittsburgh at Detroit
| Pittsburgh | Detroit | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerica Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Jeanmar Gomez – (2-0), 2.75 ERA, 5.25 K/9, 1.167 WHIP | Rick Porcello – (2-2), 6.28 ERA, 6.07 K/9, 1.419 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (26-77 H/AB) 0.338 BA-A, 12.99 K%, 0.948 OPS-A | PvB | (5-37 H/AB) 0.135 BA-A, 13.51 K%, 0.486 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-0), 3.5 ERA, 4 HRA, 4.5 K/9, 1.167 WHIP | HOME | (1-0), 5.64 ERA, 1 HRA, 5.6 K/9, 1.433 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
PIT BvP  | PIT vs R | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 9.0
- Favored DET -151
Pitchers
- Home Rick Porcello continues to underwhelm us. After 4 solid starts in a row, he finally had a few of us believing in him and then he goes out and gets shelled by the Twins. I think Porcello “is who we thought he is” (Great grammar I know). He is going to get a decent amount of K’s, allow some runs to be scored, but manage to pick up wins along the way thanks to his offense. Good matchup for him today against the Pirates. In Play
- Away If you look at Jeanmar Gomez stats, you would think that he is a great pitcher. But a lot of those numbers came from him pitching in the bullpen and he has been pretty average as a starter. He’s only managed to last 5 innings twice this season and draws a tough matchup against the Tigers. Avoid
Batters
- Home I keep waiting for Prince Fielder to have a big game against all of these weak right hand pitchers the Tigers have been facing, but then he comes out and has a big game yesterday against a lefty. Maybe he can carry some of that over to today. Miguel Cabrera is always in play if you are willing to pay the price and I’m going to give Torii Hunter some love since you rarely ever hear his name even though he is batting over .300 on the season.
- Away I expect the Pirates to score at least a couple of runs today on Porcello, but the Pirates are a hard team to trust offensively. Andrew McCutchen has been very good of late and should continue the hot streak. Outside of him, maybe take a shot at the left hand bats of Travis Snider or Garrett Jones.
Baltimore at Washington
| Baltimore | Washington | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals Park | 7:05 PM | ||||||
| Kevin Gausman – (0-1), 7.2 ERA, 9 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | Nate Karns – | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (0-1), 7.2 ERA, 1 HRA, 9 K/9, 1.8 WHIP | HOME | NO DATA | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| BAL BvP | BAL vs R | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored WAS -117
Pitchers
- Home Nate Karns has put up some great numbers in the minor leagues over the past couple of seasons with an ERA of only 2.70 and 10.9 K’s per 9 innings. While the majors are certainly a different animal, I expect him to be able to make some guys miss, especially in his first couple of starts. I would take a shot on him for minimum salary today. In Play
- Away Kevin Gausman was actually pretty solid in his first start once he settled down. It was a tough matchup against the Jays too. His matchup is a little bit better today even though the Nats will be at home where they are much better offensively. He has decent value in GPP’s. In Play
Batters
- Home I really like the price of Ian Desmond on almost all sites today. He is one of those rare shortstops with speed and power and has pretty big upside against the rookie Gausman today. I also like Adam LaRoche, he always seems to come up big on these qualifier nights.
- Away This could be a sneaky stack team if you are in to that sort of thing. Karns is making his first start and you never know what to expect when that happens. Chris Davis and Nate McLouth are my favorite Orioles today though.
Cleveland at Cincinnati
| Cleveland | Cincinnati | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great American Ball Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Zach McAllister – (4-3), 2.89 ERA, 6.27 K/9, 1.214 WHIP | Mat Latos – (4-0), 3.17 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.198 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | PvB | (16-54 H/AB) 0.296 BA-A, 22.22 K%, 0.852 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (1-2), 3.97 ERA, 3 HRA, 6.8 K/9, 1.544 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 3.38 ERA, 4 HRA, 8.8 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| CLE BvP | CLE vs R | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.5
- Favored CIN -145
Pitchers
- Home Mat Latos has looked very hittable in his last 4 starts allowing an average of 4 earned runs per game. He draws a really tough matchup against this hot Indians team and while Vegas still likes Latos, I think I am going to target other aces. I feel like there is more risk than reward here. But if you can get him for a cheap price, I guess he’s not a bad play. In Play
- Away Zach McAllister has some pretty solid numbers on the season, but those numbers drop off when he is pitching on the road. The Reds love to bat at home and I just don’t think this is a great spot for McAllister. Plus no one plays him anyway so he can’t really hurt you. Avoid
Batters
- Home Target those left hand bats of Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto. All of them have great matchups today against the right hand pitcher McAllister.
- Away The Indians have been a tough team to predict, especially on an individual hitter level. But they have been scoring a ton of runs lately, so if you think you can pick out which ones will do well then go for it. Generally, the left hand bats have a better chance of having a good game so maybe target Bourn and Kipnis.
NY Yankees at NY Mets
| NY Yankees | NY Mets | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citi Field | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Hiroki Kuroda – (6-3), 2.67 ERA, 5.83 K/9, 1.063 WHIP | Matt Harvey – (5-0), 1.93 ERA, 9.51 K/9, 0.829 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (19-68 H/AB) 0.279 BA-A, 25 K%, 0.809 OPS-A | PvB | (0-0 H/AB) 0 BA-A, 0 K%, 0 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (2-2), 3.99 ERA, 3 HRA, 5.2 K/9, 1.227 WHIP | HOME | (2-0), 2.13 ERA, 3 HRA, 9.8 K/9, 0.827 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| NYY BvP | NYY vs R | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 6.5
- Favored NYM -123
Pitchers
- Home The battle for New York is usually over before it has started, but the Mets have new life with Matt Harvey. Even though they are still a bad team at least now they have some hope. Harvey has dominated this season with an ERA under 2.00 and a strikeout rate of 9.5 K’s per 9 innings. While the Yankees do have a ton of left hand bats, Harvey should still have a very nice game. Target
- Away Hiroki Kuroda had one of his worst starts ever in his last appearance giving up 5 earned runs in only 2 innings. Many people though Kuroda was hurt, but you can just chalk it up to a bad outing. I think he gets back on track today against the Mets who really only have one really good hitter. Target
Batters
- Whenever you see an over/under this low, what’s the point of trying to outsmart everyone else by taking hitters from this game? Just not enough upside for either team and there are options galore tonight. Avoid
Philadelphia at Boston
| Philadelphia | Boston | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenway Park | 7:10 PM | ||||||
| Cliff Lee – (5-2), 2.48 ERA, 6.86 K/9, 1.025 WHIP | Ryan Dempster – (2-5), 4.69 ERA, 10.92 K/9, 1.413 WHIP | ||||||
| PvB | (29-142 H/AB) 0.204 BA-A, 21.13 K%, 0.613 OPS-A | PvB | (31-111 H/AB) 0.279 BA-A, 25.23 K%, 0.919 OPS-A | ||||
| ROAD | (4-1), 1.6 ERA, 1 HRA, 6 K/9, 0.822 WHIP | HOME | (1-4), 4.5 ERA, 7 HRA, 11.9 K/9, 1.2 WHIP | ||||
| BATTER SPLITS BREAKDOWN | |||||||
| PHI BvP | PHI vs R | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Note: Batter Splits Above Open in Pop Up Window | |||||||
Las Vegas
- OU 8.0
- Favored BOS -123
Pitchers
- Home Ryan Dempster has been exactly the type of pitcher that we have expected him to be. A high strikeout pitcher that has a high ERA and WHIP. He is always in play thanks to his strikeout potential and his run support. Today he has a great matchup against the Phillies who are without one of their best hitters in Chase Utley. I think Dempster gets his usual amount of K’s and only allows one or two earned runs. Target
- Away Cliff Lee has had very similar numbers to those of the past few seasons except for the fact that his K’s have been down a little bit. I’m not sure if they will pick up, but he is still managing to strike out 7 per 9 innings so that’s still a solid rate. He has a tough matchup in Boston today, but I think he pitches well as he likes to step up in big spots. Great against the grain play today. In Play
Batters
- Home Mike Napoli has had some success off of Lee in the past going 5/16 with a HR, but he is a bit too inconsistent for my taste and I could easily see him going 0-4 with 3 K’s. Dustin Pedroia is about the only Red Sox bat I would think about tonight.
- Away Chase Utley has great BvP, but luckily for Dempster he won’t be playing. I don’t love the Phillies bats today, but their best bats do bat left handed so if you think Dempster will struggle, target Rollins, Howard, and Brown.
