MLB Daily Grind Down: Sunday, September 1st Part Three

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-01 05:00:46

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Cincinnati vs. Colorado

4:10 PM	Cincinnati – ROAD					Colorado – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58		0.264	0.735	19.80%	0.60
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47		0.266	0.749	19.90%	0.48
SP STATS	Leake – RHP					Chatwood – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	3.27	5.40	9.54		1.40	3.15	6.34	9.55
LAST 14 DAYS	1.46	6.75	4.74	5.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CIN vs R		CIN BvP			COL vs R		COL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Mike Leake – 3 straight poor starts and now he heads to Coors to face an offense that is surging. No thank you. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10

• Tyler Chatwood – He returns again from the DL but he’s clearly not the same as he was earlier in the season. This one will be high scoring. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Leake has struggled against lefties with a .707 OPS against. Helton and Dickerson are great options at home and both have been hitting well recently.
• Chatwood is allowing both lefties and righties to hit about .280 on the season but lefties are hitting for better power. I like Votto, Choo and Bruce in Coors of course.
• It’s too bad Tyler Colvin hasn’t played since early July. He’s 7 for 16 with 4 HRs off of Leake. Tulo and Helton both have good BvP though in very small sample sizes.
• This game is expected to be the highest scoring of the day so try to find value where you can and exploit some of the bigger bats.

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San Diego vs. LA Dodgers

4:10 PM	San Diego – ROAD					LA Dodgers – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.693	20.90%	0.54		0.266	0.723	18.40%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.244	0.677	20.80%	0.39		0.271	0.728	18.00%	0.44
SP STATS	Ross – RHP					Greinke – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.20	3.05	8.10	5.31		1.17	2.86	7.14	11.83
LAST 14 DAYS	1.15	4.19	9.42	10.03		0.83	1.13	7.13	17.33
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SDP vs R		SDP BvP			LAD vs R		LAD BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyson Ross – He strikes out a ton of guys which gives him great upside but getting the win is not all that likely as a +210 dog. He doesn’t get blown up but beating Greinke at home is tough. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10

• Zack Greinke – He’s the top pitcher of the day. The Padres hit lefties well and stink against right handed pitching. He has a 2.29 home ERA with 65 K’s in 74 IP and has pitched great in each of his last 4 games. If you can afford him, get him in. Starter Rating: 10 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Pass on the Padres hitters.
• Adrian Gonzalez is hitting well and had success in an earlier meeting against Ross this season with 3 hits in 4 ABs.
• The O/U is low here, I’d find hitter value elsewhere.

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San Francisco vs. Arizona

4:10 PM	San Francisco – ROAD					Arizona – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.259	0.692	16.90%	0.51		0.259	0.717	18.30%	0.56
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.255	0.670	17.20%	0.36		0.257	0.716	18.90%	0.45
SP STATS	Petit – RHP					Corbin – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.35	3.18	10.54	12.05		1.05	2.79	7.82	12.62
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	3.00	9.00	14.00		1.14	6.28	8.94	11.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	SFG vs L		SFG BvP			ARI vs R		ARI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Yusmeiro Petit – I don’t really know much about this guy other than he looked pretty good in his only 2 starts of the season. My biggest fear would be the left-handed killers of Goldschmidt and Hill in the Dbacks lineup but at the right cheap price he’s a decent SP2 option even though his win probability is low against Corbin. The O/U is 7 so Vegas thinks this will be low scoring as well. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

• Patrick Corbin – I don’t know if he decided to stay up and watch the 18 inning affair with the Phillies last Saturday night or what but he stunk on Sunday. He gets a full week of rest and returns against a Giants team that can’t hit. In two starts against them he has an ERA just over 1 and has a home ERA of 1.86. Love this play today. Starter Rating: 9 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Petit is allowing righties to hit .407 with a .984 OPS against in just 27 AB’s this season. Goldie and Hill are both tremendous plays. Martin Prado and A.J. Pollock also hit lefties well and have improved splits at home. I love all four of those guys today.
• Prado’s split differential may be the most drastic. He’s hitting lefties at .316 with an .897 OPS on the year.
• Scutaro, Posey and Pence have all had moderate success against Corbin but I don’t love any of the west coast G-men today.

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Miami vs. Atlanta

5:05 PM	Miami – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.226	0.634	21.30%	0.35		0.253	0.737	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Eovaldi – RHP					Wood – LHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.31	3.76	6.50	8.25		1.11	2.27	9.41	5.44
LAST 14 DAYS	1.88	7.31	7.88	5.67		1.22	1.00	9.00	12.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIA vs L		MIA BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nathan Eovaldi – 7.31 ERA and 1.88 WHIP over the last 2 weeks? Not taking my chances here against ATL. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10

• Alex Wood – He threw six innings of shutout ball with 7 K’s against these Marlins last but like I mentioned on Saturday, be VERY careful of a couple of Marlins bats right now. Stanton is heating up and Ruggiano is beyond hot. Both hit lefties well. I love the play in general because I don’t think anyone beyond those 2 will get to Wood but those guys can make his day less than stellar. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Eovaldi doesn’t have any noteable splits against lefties or righties but also has struggled recently so ATL hitters are definitely in play.
• Uggla is 3-13 with a HR off of Eovaldi.
• Ruggiano hits lefties for an .822 OPS and is boasting a .917 OPS over the last 7 days. I really like him as a value play today and even Stanton might be worth paying up for.

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NY Mets vs. Washington

8:00 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Washington – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.679	22.00%	0.41		0.231	0.670	20.40%	0.40
SP STATS	Niese – LHP					Ohlendorf – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON						1.09	2.49	7.10	6.43
LAST 14 DAYS						1.32	4.82	4.95	6.55
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			WSN vs L		WSN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jonathon Niese – Wow is all I can really say. He has put together a stretch of 3 great starts and given the fact that many expected him to be this good earlier in the year it’s safe to look at this as more of the standard than an outlier. I love Niese against the Nats tonight, even though he’s been much better at home. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

• Ross Ohlendorf – The Mets and their AAA team squashed Dan Haren on Saturday and Ross Ohlendorf is no better than that. The O/U is low and he’s a favorite at home but I’m not buying into him. He’s averaging just 5 K/9 over the last 2 weeks which limits his upside. Starter Rating: 5 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Laroche is 4-15 with 2 HR off of Niese which is surprising given the L/L matchup.
• Zimmerman is 5-14 and could be a good play for the later set of games on Sunday.
• Daniel Murphy has good BvP splits for the 3rd straight day and has been great in each of the last 2. I love this play tonight as he continues to be on fire.

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