MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, September 24th

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-24 21:19:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.251	0.682	19.50%	0.39		0.270	0.768	19.50%	0.52
SP STATS	Santiago – LHP					Jimenez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.41	3.53	8.61	7.22		1.38	3.49	9.16	10.77
LAST 14 DAYS	2.00	5.00	7.00	5.50		1.06	0.59	10.73	20.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			CLE vs L		CLE BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Hector Santiago – The 6.75 ERA and 2.25 WHIP over the last 14 days don’t inspire much confidence in Santiago. He’s also facing a team deep in the playoff hunt. Pass. Starter Rating: 2 out of 10
• Ubaldo Jimenez – Ubaldo has an ideal matchup and has been an absolute stud over his last 7 starts. He’s striking out batters at an 11 K/9 rate over the last 2 weeks and is a great play in both H2H and GPP play against CWS. Starter Rating: 9 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Righties have a .768 OPS with 14 HR in around 370 AB’s against Santiago. I love Nick Swisher and Yan Gomes (if in) tonight.
• Jason Kipnis has an OPS over .950 against lefties this season.
• Dayan Viciedo has 6 hits (none for extra bases) in 15 ABs against Ubaldo

Tampa Bay vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Tampa Bay – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.262	0.748	18.70%	0.62		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.734	19.00%	0.48		0.249	0.688	19.60%	0.42
SP STATS	Moore – LHP					Kuroda – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.24	3.11	8.54	11.58		1.14	3.13	6.56	10.17
LAST 14 DAYS	1.32	0.96	7.91	8.05		1.42	5.25	6.00	6.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TBR vs R		TBR BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Matt Moore – Moore struggled in his last start but got a bunch of strikeouts to make his final FP output respectable. This is a huge game as the Yankees hang on for their playoff lives. The O/U is at a tiny 7 runs but he’s a slight dog in this one. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
• Hiroki Kuroda – He’s given up at least 5 hits in each of his last 7 starts and over 8 hits in 5 of those 7. He hasn’t been very good but this is a huge game and he’s at home where his ERA is just 1.97 I like him, especially as a sizeable favorite today. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Soriano has a HR in just 3 ABs off Moore. Cano is 5-17 with a dong, and A-Fraud is 3-7 with an XBH but lefty ‘specialist’ Vernon Wells is just 1-17.
• Zobrist, Lobaton, Scott and Joyce all have HRs off Kuroda for the Rays
• The Yankees came into Monday batting just .216 over the past week and fading fast.
• The Rays haven’t been much better, hitting just .233
• Loney’s walk off HR could ignite the left hander against Kuroda who has an OPS-against lefties of .742.

Toronto vs. Baltimore

7:05 PM	Toronto – ROAD					Baltimore – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.252	0.733	18.00%	0.62		0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.254	0.744	18.00%	0.49		0.267	0.767	18.00%	0.52
SP STATS	Redmond – RHP					Tillman – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.16	4.10	9.40	8.01		1.22	3.70	7.55	11.04
LAST 14 DAYS	0.49	1.42	10.33	12.10		0.80	3.60	7.80	13.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	TOR vs R		TOR BvP			BAL vs R		BAL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Todd Redmond – I guess sleeping on Redmond is a bad idea, as the aging right-hander has 7 K’s in 3 of his last 4 starts, including a 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER outing against these Orioles 2 starts ago. I like him today as a sneaky, but cheap, GPP play despite a tough opponent. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
• Chris Tillman – 3 of his last 4 starts he’s posted 7 K’s or higher, with the only one where he didn’t coming against these Blue Jays. He’s HR-prone but is a heavy favorite today and this Toronto team is a mess. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Redmond struggles most with righties, allowing a .743 OPS against. Adam Jones hits righties well and could be a strong option tonight.
• The Orioles are dead last in batting average over the past week, hitting just .167 as a team
• Despite a lackluster lineup, the Jays are hitting .263 with 8 HR over the past 7 games coming into Monday.
• Tillman’s .726 OPS vs. LHB and .732 OPS vs. RHB are pretty bad. I like Tillman a lot for K-upside but don’t be surprised if a couple of Jays take him deep.

Philadelphia vs. Miami

7:10 PM	Philadelphia – ROAD					Miami – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52		0.231	0.623	19.80%	0.43
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.701	19.90%	0.41		0.230	0.613	19.70%	0.31
SP STATS	Miner – RHP					Alvarez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.54	3.22	6.52	2.15		1.22	3.97	5.21	7.73
LAST 14 DAYS	1.50	1.50	7.50	3.33		1.09	4.09	5.73	8.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	PHI vs R		PHI BvP			MIA vs R		MIA BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zach Miner – He threw 3 IP in his first start. He’s not going to go more than 4-5 tops. Avoid even with a good matchup. Starter Rating: 1 out of 10
• Henderson Alvarez – He tosses a quality start against NYM then gets lit up by the Nats. Alvarez is unpredictable and a heavy underdog today. I’m avoiding. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• I have Giancarlo Stanton as my #5 overall outfielder today against the righty Miner who has a .787 OPS against RHB in limited time
• Lefties are hitting .306 with an .840 OPS against Alvarez. Target Brown and Utley tonight when possible.

Milwaukee vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	Milwaukee – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.254	0.714	19.70%	0.57		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.250	0.702	18.90%	0.42		0.252	0.735	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Thornburg – RHP					Garcia – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.20	1.96	6.08	5.78		1.27	4.52	4.80	5.70
LAST 14 DAYS	0.75	1.50	7.50	14.00		1.22	2.03	6.18	7.70
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	MIL vs R		MIL BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Tyler Thornburg – In his last 2 starts, Wild Thornberry’s has gone 12 IP with 10 K’s and just 2 ER. I can get behind that, especially against a Braves offense that was silenced by Estrada on Monday and, if Freeman is still out, you can boost this one even a bit higher. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10
• Freddy Garcia – I don’t care if he’s thrown 2 straight quality starts for the Braves, I will not take Freddy Garcia. End of discussion. Starter Rating: 3 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Lefties are hitting just .115 off of Thornburg this season in 115 ABs, so consider avoiding Freeman, McCann or Heyward if in the lineup.
• Aramis is 8-18 with a HR off Garcia and went deep on Monday.
• Lefties are hitting .287 off Garcia and Scooter Gennett or Caleb Gindl could be nice values at 2B and OF if in the lineup on Tuesday.
• The Brewers are quietly hitting really well. Ramirez, Gomez, Gindl, and Davis have all been mashing

Grind Down: Page 1 – Page 2