MLB Daily Grind Down: Tuesday, September 3rd

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-09-03 18:59:59

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

• FPAB – Fantasy Points Per At Bat
• K% – Strikeout Percentage
• K/9 – Strikeouts Per 9 IP

Chicago White Sox vs. NY Yankees

7:05 PM	Chicago White Sox – ROAD					NY Yankees – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.251	0.683	19.30%	0.51		0.246	0.685	19.40%	0.55
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.691	19.30%	0.40		0.249	0.681	18.90%	0.41
SP STATS	Sale – LHP					Kuroda – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.07	2.99	9.64	14.12		1.11	2.89	6.47	10.49
LAST 14 DAYS	1.00	5.40	10.80	14.00		1.82	9.82	5.73	3.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	CHW vs R		CHW BvP			NYY vs L		NYY BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Sale – Sale might be the top option of the day despite a tough matchup in Yankee Stadium. There aren’t a ton of studs with great matchups tonight so finding high scores from your pitchers will be a challenge. The good news is Yankees hitters have combined to hit just .167 off Sale in 66 AB’s with a 31% K-Rate. The bad news is he’s a +130 underdog on the road tonight. Starter Rating: 7 out of 10

• Hiroki Kuroda – He’s allowed 11, 9 and 9 hits in his last 3 starts respectively which is really not the kind of pitching you expect from the typically consistent and conservative Kuroda. Each one of those duds came on the road though and the return to Yankee Stadium may be exactly what the doctor ordered. He’s 7-2 at home with a 1.54 ERA and faces a weak White Sox lineup that just got shut down by Phil Hughes. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• The Yankees get another left hander, I feel like that’s all they’ve seen over the past 4 or 5 days. The Yankees are hitting .251 on the season against lefties and that number has increased rapidly since the return of A-Fraud and acquisition of Alfonso Soriano.
• Not much BvP vs. Sale but Ichiro is one to avoid at just 2-11 lifetime.
• Adam Dunn is 4-13 with a HR off Kuroda. Alexei Ramirez is 5-15 with a HR and Alejandro De Aza is 3-7.
• Avisail Garcia came into Monday with a 6-game hit streak with 2 HR and 11 hits in that span.

Baltimore vs. Cleveland

7:05 PM	Baltimore – ROAD					Cleveland – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.264	0.755	18.10%	0.63		0.253	0.732	21.10%	0.63
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.271	0.777	17.70%	0.53		0.248	0.723	21.70%	0.48
SP STATS	Tillman – RHP					Jimenez – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.23	3.61	7.60	11.15		1.43	3.95	9.12	9.93
LAST 14 DAYS	0.81	3.00	9.43	13.33		1.15	3.46	13.85	14.00
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	BAL vs R		BAL BvP			CLE vs R		CLE BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Tillman – Tillman has thrown back to back beauties, allowing just 3 ER in 15 IP and striking out 17 hitters. The Indians are really struggling with the bats of late and Bud Norris beat them down pretty bad on Monday. This has to be one of the better pitching options tonight. Starter Rating: 9 out of 10

• Ubaldo Jimenez – He’s averaging 13.85 K/9 over his last 3 starts which is borderline obscene. I think it’s safe to expect that number to drop eventually and he’s really vulnerable at giving up untimely big hits (see McCann’s 3 run HR in his last start). I like the idea here, not sure Baltimore is the best opponent to use him against though. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Nick Swisher is 5-17 with a HR off Tillman.
• Nate McLouth is one to avoid against the hard throwing Jimenez. He’s just 3-25 lifetime with 9 K’s.
• Tillman has struggled a bit with the long ball this year. He’s allowed 27 home runs on the season.
• With the line set at 8.5 and a hot Baltimore offense, they may not be a bad semi stack. Chris Davis crushed fastballs, which Ubaldo throws a lot of.

Washington vs. Philadelphia

7:05 PM	Washington – ROAD					Philadelphia – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.247	0.700	20.20%	0.54		0.248	0.694	19.90%	0.52
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.253	0.711	20.10%	0.44		0.230	0.670	20.80%	0.40
SP STATS	Gonzalez – LHP					Martin – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.28	3.56	9.11	10.89		1.79	6.39	11.47	7.85
LAST 14 DAYS	1.88	6.10	8.02	8.05		1.73	6.55	13.09	7.67
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	WSN vs R		WSN BvP			PHI vs L		PHI BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Gio Gonzalez – God I hate you Gio Gonzalez. You come off one of the worst performances of the season for ANY pitcher with a gem against the Marlins but…it was the Marlins. He’s been up and down for the last month and at times looks fatigued. I do like him tonight though against a PHI team he’s 1-0 against with 16 K’s in 14 IP over 2 starts this season. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

• Ethan Martin – The upside? He strikes out a lot of hitters. The downside? He’s guaranteed to absolutely fall apart at some point. Once a couple of guys get on base, he crumbles. Starter Rating: 1 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Righties have a .964 OPS against Martin. Lefties have an .846 OPS against him. It’s safe to say that every single Nationals bat is in play.
• Martin has given up a ridiculous 7 HR in just over 100 ABs.
• I would avoid the Philly bats such as Dom Brown and Utley against the lefty, but Darin Ruf is 3-5 with a double and a HR and has been lighting it up over the past month.

St. Louis vs. Cincinnati

7:10 PM	St. Louis – ROAD					Cincinnati – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.272	0.743	17.90%	0.61		0.249	0.718	20.10%	0.58
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.284	0.766	17.50%	0.49		0.251	0.723	20.10%	0.47
SP STATS	Wacha – RHP					Bailey – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.18	3.78	10.06	6.41		1.14	3.55	8.79	11.71
LAST 14 DAYS	1.39	3.52	15.00	5.05		1.15	2.03	8.24	13.05
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	STL vs R		STL BvP			CIN vs R		CIN BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Michael Wacha – Wacha made his first start in a long time against CIN last time out and struck out 7 through just 4 2/3 innings. That was certainly impressive but to go into Cincinnati and beat out an offense that is trending upward seems tough. Starter Rating: 4 out of 10

• Homer Bailey – Last time out he faced these same Cardinals and held them scoreless through 7 1/3 IP with 7 strikeouts. That was his first quality start against STL this season though and they’ve dominated him in his other 2. There are pros and cons to this pick, but at the end of the day that 8.5 O/U line tells me he’s likely to get hit around a bit. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Holliday, Carpenter, Molina, Freese and Jay all have batting averages over .300 and OPS’ over .900 against Bailey in strong sample sizes.
• Wacha’s allowed righties to hit .274 with an .840 OPS on the season but has shut down lefties for the most part.
• Overall, there are a lot of expensive bats in this game who may be better off avoiding with a solidified top tier starter on one end and a young top prospect on the other.

NY Mets vs. Atlanta

7:10 PM	NY Mets – ROAD					Atlanta – HOME
TEAM BATTING	AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB		AVG	OPS	K%	FPAB
SEASON	0.239	0.683	22.20%	0.54		0.252	0.731	22.40%	0.59
VS. LEFT/RIGHT	0.237	0.679	22.00%	0.41		0.253	0.737	22.60%	0.48
SP STATS	Torres – RHP					Medlen – RHP
	WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG		WHIP	ERA	K/9	FPPG
SEASON	1.07	2.77	6.53	3.34		1.29	3.58	6.93	9.81
LAST 14 DAYS	0.69	1.74	5.35	3.62		1.00	2.08	6.23	11.50
BATTER SPLITS	Note: Batter Splits Below Open in Pop Up Window
	NYM vs R		NYM BvP			ATL vs R		ATL BvP

Pitcher Grind Down

• Carlos Torres – He’s a +180 underdog so the win is pretty unlikely but on sites like DS or FF (good luck to all those in the FF triple play today!), he has some value. In his first appearance as a starter in a long while last Wednesday, he went 6 2/3 with 1 ER and 7 K’s against the Phillies. The matchup is tough but he strikes out a bunch and Medlen has been iffy of late on the other bump. Starter Rating: 6 out of 10

• Kris Medlen – The biggest pro for him is that he went 7 shutout innings in his last outing against Cleveland, striking out 6. The biggest con is that he has 5 stinkers in the last 10 starts. The Mets are a weak opponent though and at home his ERA is just 2.78. Add in the fact that he’s a -200 favorite and I’m on board. Starter Rating: 8 out of 10

Batter Grind Down

• Torres has held both lefties and righties to a good average but the Atlanta bats can always put up a big game (even against guys not named Dice-K)
• Righties are hitting .286 off Medlen with an OPS of .755. Lefties aren’t much worse with a .742 OPS against.
• Ike Davis is 5-21 with a HR off Medlen.
• Eric Young is 9 for his last 24 with an impressive 5 SB over the past 7 days.

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