MLB Daily Plays: Monday, April 6th
Opening Day is finally here, and if there’s one thing I love about baseball, it’s huge slates of games nearly every night. We have a full day of baseball, starting at 1:05 PM EST, with 14 games scattered throughout the day.
It’s not easy today, however. Teams are starting off the season with their top arms, which is really going to narrow down the pool of usable hitters, while also making it difficult to choose pitchers. I’ve narrowed down the players I think have the best chance to perform, and I’ll be targeting all of them across my lineups today.
Starting Pitcher
Clayton Kershaw (FanDuel: $11700 DraftKings: $12400) – We’ve all been playing NBA for the past several months, and we have the idea of value etched into our brains. You need to remove yourself from that in baseball because that concept simply doesn’t apply. Hitters are high variance, but pitchers are not. As such, we need to make sure we’re selecting quality arms that form a solid foundation for our rosters. This is especially true on FanDuel. Wins are heavily weighted, and pitchers don’t suffer minuses from hits allowed and walks.
Kershaw is a guy I plan to roster every time he takes the mound. He’s the best pitcher in baseball and he routinely throws 7-8 innings, strikes out 8-10 batters, and puts his team in position to win. I want to lock in those points whenever possible, start my lineup out with a solid score, then fill in the rest of my positions. It’s not difficult to build a quality lineup around him on either site, and even though there are many aces to choose from tomorrow, none are as safe as Kershaw.
Corey Kluber (FD: $10400 DK: $9800) – Kluber’s price on DraftKings is just silly, and there’s really no reason not to use him. Houston’s offense should be better, but they still project to strike out a ton and that’s what we’re really looking for. Kluber’s dominance last season is backed up by all the statistics and analytics that are out there, and I fully expect him to to have another great season. On FanDuel, I’m not terribly interested in anyone not named Clayton Kershaw, but on two pitcher sites, Kershaw and Kluber are a great starting duo that will create a very high floor for your lineups.
Catcher
Jonathan Lucroy (FD: $3800 DK: $4300) – This pick is more about targeting the weakest pitcher on the slate, Kyle Kendrick, than anything else. Catcher is a tough position, and if you’re not willing to punt, Lucroy is a great option. The Brewers lineup is stacked, and if things go how I expect them to, they should put up a bunch of runs against Kendrick and the horrible Rockies bullpen. I don’t have an official lineup yet, but my guess is Lucroy bats second, which he did for much of last season. That will sandwich him between Gomez and Braun, and should put him in plenty of situations to produce.
Brian McCann (FD: $3300 DK: $4000) – McCann was infuriating last season. He would routinely disappoint in perceived good matchups, yet we all kept trotting him out there. I guess old habits die hard. The Yankees are near the top of my list of offenses today with Drew Hutchison on the mound. Don’t get me wrong. Hutchison has very good stuff and is capable of having a dominant outing, but he also had serious problems with lefties last season. He sported a .353 wOBA and walked nearly four batters per nine innings. New York is stacked with very good left-handed hitters, and if Hutchison is struggling with his command, he’ll be in for a very short outing, which would likely mean Marco Estrada would come in to pitch batting practice for a few innings.
First Base
Adam Lind (FD: $2800 DK: $4100) – With so many ace-quality pitchers starting today, we can reasonably expect many offenses to be limited to just a couple of runs. However, not all starting pitchers are high quality, or anywhere near it. Colorado’s starting rotation is so bad that Kyle Kendrick is getting the Opening Day nod in Milwaukee. His .360 wOBA and 4.28 xFIP against lefties last season are less than impressive, and I just can’t see him finding success in a hitter’s park against a tough Brewers lineup. The Brewers are my #1 offense tomorrow, and righty-killer Adam Lind ( .410 wOBA .179 ISO ) is at the top of my list of targets, especially on FanDuel where he’s severely under-priced.
Jose Abreu (FD: $4500 DK: $4800) – Abreu has been hitting everything this spring, and that will hopefully transition to the regular season. Abreu is better against lefties, but a .394 wOBA and .250 ISO against FBrighties is elite as well. Simply put, he crushes everything. Ventura doesn’t miss nearly as many bats as you would expect from a guy that routinely tops 100 mph. For me, Abreu is just too cheap relative to what he provides, and if I’m not going the value route with Lind, I want Abreu as I think he’s more likely to have a big day than any other first baseman.
Second Base
Scooter Gennett (FD: $3000 DK: $3800) – We continue picking on Kyle Kendrick with Scooter, who posted a .346 wOBA and .157 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. Those are solid numbers, and the ISO illustrates that he does have some pop in his bat. He’ll likely hit toward the bottom of the order, which hurts his value, but second base is a tough position, and I’ll make compromises to ensure I have a solid hitter facing a weak pitcher.
Dustin Pedroia (FD: $3400 DK: $3700) – Enjoy Pedroia’s price while you can because it won’t be down here for long. Pedroia battled a wrist injury all last season that limited his power and bat speed. He didn’t just become terrible last season, rather he was playing at much less than 100%. He’s fully healthy now, and I expect him to return to his pre-2014 form this season. Pedroia has a history of crushing left-handed pitching, and while Cole Hamels isn’t your run-of-the-mill lefty, he’s also not a guy I’m going to completely avoid, especially when the price is too good for a hitter of Pedroia’s ability.
Third Base
Aramis Ramirez (FD: $3400 DK: $4200) – Ramirez will likely resume his role as Milwaukee’s cleanup hitter, and if he does, he has potential for a big game tomorrow. He’ll likely see some at bats with runners on base as Kyle Kendrick struggles to record outs. He’s not quite the hitter he used to be, but he still has power, and he hits righties well. Again, we’re targeting the MIlwaukee offense and giving ourselves the most chances to get exposure to the runs they will likely score.
Chase Headley (FD: $3000 DK: $4100) – Headley had a good spring, and he should be hitting somewhere in the middle of a potent Yankees lineup this season. As I’ve mentioned before, Drew Hutchison tends to struggle with lefty-heavy lineups, and that’s exactly what he’s going to see today. Yankee Stadium plays well for lefties, and the short porch turns routine fly balls into home runs. Headley should have plenty of run-producing opportunities tomorrow, so hopefully he can capitalize on them for us.
Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki (FD: $4400 DK: $5000) – Tulo is more of a play on FanDuel where he is simply under-priced. Kyle Lohse is an average pitcher, but he’s nothing special. Obviously we’d prefer to use Rockies at Coors instead of on the road, but given shortstop is always a position where it’s tough to find a good bat, rostering Tulowitzki at a discount makes a lot of sense to me. He crushes everything, and Lohse is certainly not a pitcher I’m ever looking to avoid.
Freddy Galvis: (FD: $2500 DK: $3200) – Galvis was awful last season, but he’s looked very good this spring, and there’s a good chance he ends up batting second for the Phillies. That puts him behind Ben Revere and ahead of Chase Utley, which is not a bad spot to be in at all. I expect the Phillies to get to Buchholz, and Galvis is in a very favorable position for a punt play. You don’t often get to find a cheap guy at a weak position that is hitting near the top of the order.
Outfield
Joc Pederson (FD: $3200 DK: $3800) – Pederson crushed both lefties and righties in the minors, and it sounds like he’s going to be the starting center fielders for the Dodgers on Opening Day. He’s hit the ball extremely well this spring, and he’s the type of player that can give you home runs or stolen bases. He’s cheap for now, but he’s a top MLB prospect, and if he works out, he won’t be this cheap for long. Jump on him now before most people know about him and his price adjusts.
Jacoby Ellsbury (FD: $4100 DK: $4600) – Ellsbury is another guy that can homer, or he can steal you a couple of bags. Either way, I think he finds success against Hutchison. There are just too many lefties in this lineup, and I just don’t see Hutchison getting through the lineup without giving up some hits and runs. Ellsbury will likely bat leadoff, and while I’d like to see him lower in the order, you still can’t go wrong with him, especially on FanDuel where his price seems to too low.
Ben Revere (FD: $3000 DK: $3900) – I think Revere is fairly priced on DraftKings, but he’s a major bargain on FanDuel. He’ll likely be leading off for the Phillies, and I like the offense as a whole against Buchholz. Revere rarely strikes out, so he’s either drawing walks, or putting the ball into play. He has no power, but he can easily make those points up by getting on base a couple of times, scoring a run, and swiping a base or two. If you want to pay up for Kershaw, these are the types of plays you need to find in order to conserve cap space for the rest of your roster.