MLB DFS Core Stacks: Tuesday, August 13th
MLB DFS tournament play is unlike that of any other sport. Predicting outcomes with precision is difficult and player variance is near its peak, so there are special considerations when constructing MLB lineups in order for you to find success in the long term. With that in mind, our DFS analysts will examine the top stacks to help you optimize your exposures before lock each weekday.
Tuesday, August 13th
The purpose of this article is to clearly define the best stacks for a variety of tournament formats, while also helping determine which pitcher(s) might work best with the different parts of the order (in terms of pricing) for that stack.
Team 1: The best stack of the night without considering ownership.
Team 2: The best stack to pivot to if ownership on Team 1 becomes too high.
Team 3: The best stack of the night for large-field GPP tournaments. You will be using this stack to try to hit the big first place payout in the largest tournaments on the slate.
THE CORE STACKS
(Under normal conditions, the Houston Astros would be my top stack facing Ivan Nova. However, since it is unclear when we’d get a Game 2 lineup, not to mention that the game isn’t available on all sites, I will not include them in my analysis. Keep that in mind for those of you who are playing on the sites where this game is available.)
Team 1 – New York Yankees
“Fredo, you’re my older brother, and I love you. But don’t ever take sides with anyone against the family again. Ever.” – Michael Corleone
Well, this one is going to be painful to write. Sorry John (my long lost cousin), but the Yankees have earned themselves the top stack of the night. Considering Means has been a pretty decent pitcher this season (he was an All Star, ya know), this has far more to do with how good the Yankees bats are and how bad the Orioles bullpen is.
The top five in this projected Yankees lineup (LeMahieu, Judge, Urshela, Gary Goat, Gleyber) is a sea of green in PlateIQ against LHP this season. A few of them (Judge, Sanchez, Gleyber) have some high K%’s in this split, but the strikeout rate for Means against righties dips down to only 17.3%.
Means has been much better against lefties this season (.253 wOBA, .178 ISO, 27.8% K%), so I won’t be listing any lefties below. However, keep in mind that the Orioles have way more righties in that bullpen than lefties (the third worst bullpen in the league, mind you, according to our Premium Leaderboard), so these Yankee lefties are sure to get some favorable matchups as the game moves along. The larger the field in the tournament, the more different you will want to be with your Yankees stacks. And you can do that by moving down in the order with the likes of Didi, Maybin, Gardner, and Tauchman.
Potential SP Pairings
Matt Boyd, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole (not available on all sites), Lance Lynn, Dustin May, Jack Flaherty, Madison Bumgarner, Domingo German, Jon Gray, Thomas Pannone, Max Fried, Martin Perez, Brendan McKay
Team 2 – Arizona Diamondbacks
I was considering either Coors Field here for Team 2, but ultimately went with the D-Backs since they are the road team. I never like putting a Coors Field here as Team 2 because ownership always seems to be inflated. However, with good pitchers in this game, expensive price tags, and a plethora of other great hitting spots tonight, I think ownership isn’t going to be much of an issue.
Opposing pitcher Jon Gray sees his skills drop a bit against lefties. In 300 plate appearances in that split this season, he has allowed a .354 wOBA and .182 ISO, while posting a 22% K%, 12.3% BB%, 43.9% hard hit rate, and 25.6% line drive rate. Considering he probably sees six lefties tonight (five of them in the top six in the order), we have to like some of these D-Bats in Coors Field.
There is one last thing I want to point out here, and that is regarding Jarrod Dyson. While he is priced way up on DK/FDRFT, he is only $3,200 on FanDuel and $11 on Yahoo. Ownership is obviously going to vary across the industry depending on how he is priced. The projected leadoff hitter in Coors Field is always an intriguing option, and Dyson also has the highest Threat Rating to swipe a bag on the Premium Leaderboards.
Potential SP Pairings
Team 3 – Los Angeles Dodgers
These are my absolute favorite kinds of situations to find a great stack at extremely low ownership. You get a great offense like the Dodgers (against RHP, they rank third in wRC+, fourth in wOBA, and second in ISO) that are playing in one of the best pitchers parks in baseball. As a result, they are not going to pop in projection models compared to Yankees, Astros (on some sites), Coors Field, etc.
You also get them facing a pitcher that still has some negative regression coming his way. Fifty percent…that’s right, HALF, of the balls put into play off of Yamamoto are hit hard. Fifty percent! That number is up to 56% against lefties. And yet he only has a .208 BABIP? Just how lucky can one guy get??
He walks too many guys (10.5% BB%), gives up too many line drives (22.8% line drive rate), and gives up too many flyballs (41.9% FB%). The only thing he has been able to do well so far this season is get above average strikeouts (23.2% to lefties; 26.6% to righties). However, of the first seven batters, only Muncy and Smith have a 20% K% or higher against RHP. And all of Turner, Bellinger, Seager, and Beaty are somewhere between 12.5%-16.5%.
Free passes will be issued. Runners will be on base. Balls will be hit hard and in the air. Oh, and did I mention that the Marlins have THE WORST bullpen in baseball (5.14 xFIP)? This has the potential to get out of hand tonight folks. When Bellinger, Joc, Muncy, etc. hit dongs, a lot of the time it just flat out doesn’t matter what park they are in. Take the low ownership on them and head up that leaderboard.
Potential SP Pairings
OTHER STACKS TO CONSIDER
1. Colorado Rockies
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Washington Nationals
5. Texas Rangers (leverage stack for large-field GPP’s on what might be a popular cheap pitcher in Thomas Pannone)
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