Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, August 31
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! We have a busy day on the sports calendar today with the first full week of college football on tap along with our usual Saturday of MLB action. There are only a handful of MLB games this afternoon, so I will focus today’s article on the healthy ten game evening slate. DraftKings is only offering a two game early slate, while FanDuel has added the 6 PM Eastern starts to make it a four game slate (but with very small prize pools).
If you are playing the earlier slates, you can check out our projections in LineupHQ to give you guidance.
As for tonight, this looks like a fun slate with a nice balance of pitching and offense. The weather forecast looks relatively quiet with the exception of a YELLOW rating from Kevin Roth in the MIL/CIN game, so I am going to write up the article assuming every game is a full go. Let’s dig in and see what this Saturday has in store for us!
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Saturday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER PITCHING – A TRIO OF OPTIONS
Zack Wheeler vs. Braves
Bryan Woo vs. Angels
Cole Ragans vs. Astros
This is a strange slate for pitching. We have a few ace-level options on the mound this evening, but there is not a whole lot separating the pitchers in terms of projections. On a large slate where we are going to want to pay for some bats, being able to save money at pitcher tonight could be very helpful. I say that off the top to let you know that there is not a single pitcher you NEED to play tonight. You do not NEED to play any of these top three pitchers, and you might not be able to if you are stacking, say, the Orioles at Coors Field.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the 2024 data for this top tier trio:
Wheeler – 2.74 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 28% K, 7% BB
Woo – 2.05 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 20% K, 3% BB
Ragans – 3.28 ERA, 3.42 xFIP, 29% K, 8% BB
It is clear that the two pitchers with the most upside on this slate are Zack Wheeler and Cole Ragans. However, they are expensive on a slate where I want money to spend on bats, and both have tough matchups. Wheeler has to face the Braves, while Ragans has to face the Astros. Both the Braves and Astros have been much improved teams over the past month. Both offenses rank well above league average in team wOBA over the past month, with the Braves sitting at 4th. The Braves are striking out a little more, but the Astros are not striking out much at all. I just don’t see a reason to pay a premium for either of these pitchers given the context of this slate. If I take one, it will be Wheeler, but again, he is nowhere near a “must.”
My preferred top tier pitcher tonight is going to be Bryan Woo. He doesn’t have elite strikeout metrics, but he makes up for that by going deep into games and exhibiting strong command. He has a 31:3 K/BB ratio in his five August starts to date, and he draws a favorable matchup with the Angels this evening. Like the others, you do not absolutely need to play him, but I think Woo has a great combination of floor and ceiling.
I am ranking this tier as Woo > Wheeler > Ragans tonight.
SECONDARY PITCHING
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