Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks Today for Saturday 7/4

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2026-07-04 16:24:42 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Long-time grinder Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Justin has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks today on July 4, 2026.

Happy 4th of July, everyone! America! Baseball! Hot Dogs! It’s a glorious day!

This holiday gives us a slate that is surprisingly skewed toward night games, as we only have a couple of afternoon games on the schedule. As such, I will be focusing the article entirely on the 11-game evening docket. We have a handful of MLB Weather issues to keep an eye on, with the games in Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Chicago having some rain concerns. I will write the article assuming every game plays, but make sure to circle back on those forecasts before lock.

Let’s dig in and see what this holiday slate has to offer!

Saturday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on DraftKings and FanDuel

TOP TIER PITCHERS

• Chris Sale vs. Mets
• Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Padres
• Hunter Brown vs. Rays
• Drew Rasmussen at Astros
• Parker Messick vs. White Sox

We have a strong group of aces on the mound tonight, and I could even probably include some of the next tier into the fringe of the “ace” category. I’ve used a somewhat logical cutoff with this being all the pitchers priced at $9,000 or above on DK and $10,200 or above on FD. As usual, I will start with a peek at the 2026 data:

Sale – 2.10 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 29.6% K, 6.0% BB
Yamamoto – 2.67 ERA, 3.29 xFIP, 24.1% K, 5.1% BB
Brown – 1.78 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 30.2% K, 12.3% BB
Rasmussen – 2.45 ERA, 3.07 xFIP, 26.4% K, 4.5% BB
Messick – 2.85 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 26.5% K, 7.2% BB

All of these pitchers have their positives, and we have a strong group with all of them having ERA marks under 3.00 for the season. Given the depth at pitcher on this slate, we can afford to be somewhat picky with our preferred options. Hunter Brown slides quite a ways down my wish list tonight given that his peripherals are a bit concerning – namely the 12.3% walk rate. He hasn’t pitched a ton of innings due to injury, and he still looks to be shaking off the rust a little bit.

Although Drew Rasmussen and Parker Messick are very solid pitchers in their own right, I feel the best about Chris Sale in this spot. He has struck out 6 or more hitters in all but 1 of his starts this year, giving him a great floor to go along with the always high ceiling. He has struck out 72 batters with just 13 total walks over his last 9 starts, and he benefits from a matchup against the joke that is the 2026 Mets offense. Give me Sale as the SP1 tonight, though Rasmussen and Messick are certainly in consideration for the tournament pool if you are building multiple lineups. Messick would be my choice given that he had a 10-strikeout performance against these same White Sox less than 2 weeks ago.

If I had to pick the most intriguing pivot away from Sale, it would probably be Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While he doesn’t have the glitzy strikeout rates of other top-tier aces, he makes up for that by pitching deep into games almost every time he starts. He has failed to reach 6 innings in just 2 of his 15 outings this year, and he has only walked more than 2 batters twice. The command is fantastic, and he gets to face a Padres team that ranks 27th in team wOBA and has the 10th-highest strikeout rate against RHP this season.

I am ranking this tier as Sale > Yamamoto > Messick > Rasmussen > Brown tonight.

SECONDARY ARMS

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