Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Saturday, May 25th
Long-time grinder, STLCardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Saturday, Grinders! Welcome to a long holiday weekend. We have the usual split slate on this Saturday, with nine early games and six evening games on the schedule. It should be a fun pair of slates today, so I am going to get straight down to business.
DraftKings is offering the nine early games as one big slate, while FanDuel is splitting them up into a four-game “Early” slate and a five-game “Afternoon” slate. I am just going to break down the nine games together to accommodate the DK slate, but you can split the analysis as needed if you are playing on FD.
Let’s dig in and see what this Saturday slate has to offer!
Saturday Afternoon Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This is an intriguing pitching slate with a lot of “good” to “very good” pitching options, but I’d stop short of calling any of them “dominant ace” level arms. We can maybe find some dividing tier lines along the way, and I’d separate the top four from the rest if doing that.
THE TOP FOUR
Brady Singer vs. Rays
Logan Gilbert vs. Nationals
Reynaldo Lopez vs. Pirates
Nick Pivetta vs. Brewers
Again, these pitchers are what I would consider as “very good” status, but they are not pitchers we would normally rush out to overpay for on a normal slate. Let’s start with a look at the 2024 stats:
Singer – 2.70 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 26% K, 7% BB
Gilbert – 3.20 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, 25% K, 8% BB
Lopez – 1.54 ERA, 3.74 xFIP, 24% K, 9% BB
Pivetta – 3.04 ERA, 2.92 xFIP, 30% K, 2% BB
If you are simply looking for the pitcher with the best data this year so far, it’s Nick Pivetta. That answer would surprise a lot of people, but it really shouldn’t. We saw breakout signs from Pivetta a year ago, and he has the best xFIP (2.92), best strikeout rate (30%), and lowest walk rate (2%) of any pitcher on the afternoon slate. In a vacuum, Pivetta is the clear play here. The issues are that the Red Sox are generally careful with his pitch count, and he has to face a Brewers team that has been very dangerous at the plate in 2024. However, I’m still not sold on their offense being THIS good all year, and I’ll gladly take Pivetta at his current salaries.
If you don’t trust Pivetta, there isn’t a clear divide among the other top pitchers on this slate. I am still waiting for the regression that is bound to happen with Reynaldo Lopez, but he does have favorable matchup against the Pirates here. They have the second-lowest team wOBA against RHP so far in 2024 to go along with the fifth-highest strikeout rate. Singer is next in line against a Rays team that ranks 26th in wOBA against RHP. Gilbert tends to be a bit overvalued and is my least favorite of the group against a lower-strikeout Washington team.
As such, I am ranking this tier as Pivetta > Singer > Lopez > Gilbert — and I feel fairly comfortable with those rankings.
THE BEST OF THE REST
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