Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, August 11th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, everyone! We have an oddly small Sunday slate on tap today, as four teams actually have a rare Sunday off. When you factor in the one super early start and the handful of late afternoon games, we are left with a seven-game main slate on DraftKings. FanDuel has made it an eight-game slate by adding the Coors Field game into the mix.
The good news is that it looks like the remnants of Hurricane Debby are finally done pestering us with weather issues. This looks to be a calm weather day, with the exception of a possible delay (and an early “yellow” rating) for the aforementioned Coors Field game on FD. The bad news is that this looks to be an underwhelming slate. We don’t have much for pitching options, and ownership will likely be condensed a bit with the smaller than usual slate.
Also, I’d like to give a quick thanks to Cheese for filling in yesterday! We are spending the weekend at the beautiful Silver Beach along Lake Michigan, so I’ll be following the action today from the sand. We also stopped and had lunch at Five Guys on our way as a treat — so things are looking up!
In any case, let’s see what this Sunday has in store for MLB DFS picks!
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Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
ONE SOLO ARM AT THE TOP
Dylan Cease vs. Marlins
I do not see any reason to mess around with this today. Perhaps Nick Lodolo can touch him with upside, but Lodolo is facing the red hot Brewers today. Dylan Cease is facing the Marlins. His last start got cut short due to a long weather delay, and he should be fresh and ready to go this afternoon. The Padres have been the best team in baseball since the All-Star Break, and Cease has a mouthwatering matchup against the weak Miami offense here. With this matchup combined with his ERA and xFIP in the low-to-mid threes and his 32.7% strikeout rate, there’s really no reason to overthink it. The walks are still a touch high, but the Marlins have the lowest team walk rate in the major leagues this season.
It’s a great matchup on a thin slate for pitching. Cease is your SP1. It’s really not debatable if you’re asking for my opinion on the matter. It’s baseball. Anything can happen on a given day, but if you could hand pick a matchup to want to play Cease in, this is probably the top one on the list given the low walks and general underwhelming nature of the Miami offense.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
Nick Lodolo vs. Brewers
Hunter Brown vs. Red Sox
Chris Bassitt vs. A’s
Tanner Bibee vs. Twins
David Festa vs. Guardians
Nothing else really seems to come close to Dylan Cease at first glance, but we need to consider other options. Here are five guys (hey, we did it again!) you can consider as secondary options beyond Cease at the top. As usual, we’ll begin with a peek at the 2024 data:
Lodolo – 3.93 ERA, 3.85 xFIP, 25% K, 7% BB
Brown – 3.98 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 25% K, 9% BB
Bassitt – 3.95 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 22% K, 9% BB
Bibee – 3.48 ERA, 3.62 xFIP, 27% K, 6% BB
Festa – 5.55 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 29% K, 6% BB (24 innings)
As you can see, there really isn’t a can’t miss option here, especially when you factor in today’s matchups. In fact, you could argue that all of them have difficult matchups. Nick Lodolo is facing the first place Brewers. Hunter Brown is facing a Red Sox team that is very good against RHP. Chris Bassitt is facing an A’s team that has been much better at the plate in the second half. Bibee and Festa are facing off against each other in a battle of the top two teams in the AL Central.
All this goes back to my point that Cease is the clear SP1 on this slate.
The other options are relatively interchangeable, but if every one of these pitchers were to bring their “A” stuff to the table, Nick Lodolo would have the upside to match Cease. We don’t see that upside quite as often, but he actually is grading out just as well as Cease in our early Team RG projections this morning. I think that’s just a bit hot compared to where I would project him in this matchup, but I do agree with the high ceiling. If you are actively looking to pivot away from Cease in GPP builds, Lodolo makes the most sense.
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