Dylan Cease Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Game update: Orioles-White Sox will be delayed Sunday due to inclement weather

We have an 11 game Tuesday night slate that includes the second game of the double header out west on BOTH sites tonight with the caveat that projections for that game won’t be available until the first game starts later. We also have a Carlos Rodon scratch with the Giants going with a bullpen game. That takes one of the most expensive pitchers off the board, but may matter less at Coors. That leaves Dylan Cease as the only $10K pitcher on both sites with one more just on DraftKings and another three reaching the $9K price point on both sites. After a short hiccup, it looks like Cease is in control of his…well, control again, walking just seven of his last 102 batters, flirting with a single digit walk rate (10.1%) to go along with a 31.8 K% (15.8 SwStr%, 78.2 Z-Contact%). Walks have clearly been the only issue holding Cease back this year with a quality contact profile that includes an 87.3 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE, and 32.3% Barrels/BBE. A full one-fifth of his runs have been unearned, which explains the gap between his 2.16 ERA and estimators ranging from a 2.56 xERA to a 3.31 xFIP. Cease’s slider may be the best non-deGrom pitch in baseball this year (42.8%, -2.9 RV/100, 45.1 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .200). The Guardians have struggled with sliders since the break (-0.32 wSL/C), but the problem, of course, is that they also own a mere 17.3 K% (103 wRC+ vs RHP). In this extremely difficult spot, Cease projects as just the sixth best arm on the slate and also as a bottom six value. For a detailed rundown of all of tonight’s most expensive pitchers, including the top two projected pitchers and values, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Friday night’s 13 game slate includes just three pitchers hitting the $10K mark, but also three more reaching $9K on both sites, though that latter group may be mostly over-priced. A double digit walk rate has often kept Dylan Cease from pitching deep into games. It’s not a huge improvement, but an 8.5 BB% over his last eight starts, while retaining a 34 K% over this span, has allowed him to produce six Quality Starts. Of course, the 100 LOB% (his only runs allowed have been four solo home runs) won’t sustain, while his 81.5% season rate may have some regression incoming as well, but if he’s striking out one-third of batters faced with a single digit walk rate and sustaining his current contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 31.9% 95+ mph EV), we may have another contender in the Cy Young race. Cease’s slider has been terrific (42%, -3.5 RV/100, 47.2 Whiff%). The Rangers (94 wRC+, 23.4 K%) are bottom third of the league against the pitch (-0.4 wSL/C). Cease is the most expensive pitcher on the board and the second best projected one, also carrying a top five point per dollar value projection on either site. With the roof closed, as it almost always is during the summer, Texas is a negative run environment and park upgrade for Cease. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, included tonight’s top projected pitcher and value, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

With some higher priced pitchers potentially over-priced or pitching in difficult conditions (Coors, Wrigley), some of the best projected point per dollar values on the board, come from the middle of the board tonight. For example, the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel costs just $7.3K. The schedule eased up for Yusei Kikuchi over the last month and the performance has improved. The biggest difference is a 15.1 K-BB% over his last five that’s much better than the 6.5 K-BB% over his first six, though he’s still allowed seven barrels (12.5%) with a 91.6 mph EV and has also retained an ERA with estimators above four. For the season, a 5.51 xERA is the only estimator not within one-third of a run of his 4.44 ERA. He also has a favorable matchup in a nearly neutral and maybe even slightly negative run environment in Toronto. The Orioles have an 89 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP this year. Kikuchi is also a top three projected value on DraftKings at exactly $8K.

Another top three point per dollar projection on both sites belongs to Dylan Cease, who exceeds $9K on FanDuel, but is just $8.8K on DraftKings. Cease has walked 14 of his last 71 batters to drive his season rate up to 12.1%, which is simply too high. In fact, he’s failed to complete five innings in four of his last six starts. He’s still striking out a ton of batters (32.7%), though lower over the last month (27%) with the same 15 SwStr%, but running his pitch counts up early. One saving grace is that only 32.9% of his contact has been at an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher, which gives him a 2.84 xERA that’s still below his 3.14 ERA, though contact neutral estimators are a bit higher (3.40 SIERA). Normally, that might scare you, but tonight, Cease is pitching in Detroit. The Tigers own board lows 67 wRC+, 6.5 BB% and 6.9 HR/FB vs RHP, along with a 24.7 K%. If the Tigers refuse to take walks, the ceiling for Cease could be sky high.

Nick Pivetta, Trevor Rogers, Tyler Mahle and Chris Bassitt are also strong projected values on either site with only Pivetta’s price tag on FanDuel exceeding $9K. He still gets hit hard on occasion. The Angels connected for three barrels in his last start, but he also struck out a season high 11 of them and has a 20.9 K-BB% with just three home runs over his last nine starts. Fenway is a difficult park to pitch in, but the A’s own a 75 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP. While Rogers has struck out more than five just once this season, his three highest strikeout totals have come over his last five starts, but even that only gets him up to a 21.7 K% over the last 30 days. With a well below average 9.8 K-BB% and a bit worse than average 8.9% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are above four and a half, even if not as high as his 5.58 ERA. He’s in a difficult spot in Philly against an offense with a 111 wRC+ and 13.7 HR/FB vs LHP, but with the Phillies also owning a 24.6 K% vs LHP, the price may be too low.

Mahle struck out a season high 10 Diamondbacks last time out and at least six in six of his last seven starts after reaching that mark just once in his first six. He also has Quality Starts in five of his last six with an 87.4 mph EV. With a 25.8 K% and just 6.6% Barrels/BBE, the biggest issue is a 10.5 BB%, but even then, all estimators are more than a run below his 5.07 ERA (63.6 LOB%). He’s facing the Diamondbacks again (93 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP), this time in a more pitcher friendly park in Arizona. Ironically, Bassitt’s velocity has been steadily increasing, as he’s allowed 24 runs (22 earned) over his last 26 innings, including seven home runs and eight barrels (9.8%). He’s walking more batters (9.1%), while retaining an above average strikeout rate (23.1%), but with a lower swinging strike rate (9.3%). He’s also a bit unfortunate that almost every barrel has left the yard (21.9 HR/FB), while stranding just 55.9% of runners over this span. Thankfully, the HR and strand rate issues are generally correctable for someone who doesn’t have a history of such issues. The Brewers have a 102 wRC+, but 23.6 K% vs RHP and Citi Field is one of the best pitching environments on the slate.

Friday night’s slate features 11 games and three pitchers reaching the $10K mark, though none on both sites. Dylan Cease ($10.2K DK) is the most expensive arm on the board with a $500 price differential. He’s currently projected for the third highest point total on either site (Plate IQ), but also much lower ownership than the two pitchers above him. After striking out eight of 20 Tigers (13.9 SwStr%) in his first start, Cease has now published a 32.1 K% since the start of 2021, which helps diminish a 9.8 BB% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. A 3.85 ERA is above, but within half a run of all his estimators. It’s certainly not an easy matchup, hosting the Rays, but five batters in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% vs RHP since last season. If ownership projections are accurate and don’t change much, Cease is a great contrarian play tonight.

FanDuel’s most expensive arm is Carlos Rodon ($10.1K) with just a $300 differential. He gets both the top overall point projection and the highest ownership on in LineupHQ currently. Rodon struck out 12 of 20 Marlins in his San Francisco debut with a 23.6 SwStr%. He also averaged over 97 mph on his fastball. We can, at least temporarily, put to bed any concerns about his shoulder from last season. A 3.08 xFIP is his worst estimator since the start of last season by nearly a quarter of a run. He’ll face a familiar foe in Cleveland tonight. The Guardians have a 177 wRC+ over the last week that’s highest in the majors, though that’s mostly due to a single outburst. They did have a 99 wRC+ vs LHP last year though and only have three players in the projected lineup exceeding a 20 K% vs LHP since last year. While not advocating entirely abandoning Rodon, as he may just be the top arm on the board, there may be enough to consider coming in under-weight on him in GPPs.

Freddy Peralta costs exactly $10K on DK and just $100 less on FD. Naturally, he is the number two pitcher in our projections in terms of point total and ownership. Peralta struck out six of 18 Cubs in his first outing, but also walked four. He did experience control issues at times last year, but walked two or fewer in each of his last 11 starts last year. Peralta does have a 10% walk rate since the start of last season, but also a 33.6 K% and 86.6 mph EV, allowing just 6.0% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 2.72 xERA to a 3.67 xFIP over this span. Those 18 batters cost him 88 pitches in Chicago, so he should be ready for a full workload here. The Cardinals had just a 93 wRC+ vs RHP last year with a mix of high, low and average strikeout rates in projected lineup. You should probably have some Freddy in your GPP builds and he’s likely fine for cash games too.

The three remaining pitchers to reach the $9K price point on either site (again, none on both) are a bit mind-boggling. Brad Keller struck out five of 19 Guardians with a 13 SwStr%., but has never struck out 20% in a season. He didn’t allow a barrel in that first start either, after generating one on 10.6% of contact last year. Keller does keep half his contact on the ground (51 career GB%), though his best estimator since the start of 2021 is a still just a 4.48 xFIP. A $9.4K tag on FD ($7K DK) is quite the stretch. Marco Gonzales allowed three homers to the Twins in his first start, striking out just a single batter and has a 32.6 GB%, 15.5 HR/FB and has allowed 11.4% Barrels/BBE since last season with just an 18.2 K%. His best estimator, a 4.96 SIERA, is nearly a run above his 4.03 ERA over this span. He costs $9.3K on DK against Houston (117 wRC+ vs LHP LY). Marcus Stroman could effectively keep the ball on the ground at Coors, but had a career high 21.6 K% last year. That’s not enough for a $9K (DK) price tag at Coors. If you’re paying up for pitchers tonight, stick to the very top of the board.

There are many elements complicating Friday night’s slate, which is the full 15 games, including the second game of the double-header at Wrigley and the regularly scheduled game after the completion of a suspended one in San Diego on DraftKings, while FanDuel will go with a less complicated 13 games. We also have some big name pitchers working their way back from injury (Shane Bieber, Alex Wood, Jack Flaherty), teams who are being more conservative with their young arms to close out the season (Casey Mize, Spencer Howard) and weather, of course. Two pitchers exceed $10K on both sites tonight and there are major issues in either case. To start with, Shane Bieber takes a major league mound for the first time in over three months tonight, striking out seven of 26 batters over two rehab starts. Even if the White Sox clinched last night and could be fielding a “lesser” lineup, Bieber can’t be expected to take on nearly the workload that would make him rosterable at this price.

Since leaving a start against the Blue Jays early with a hamstring injury, Gerrit Cole has struck out 14 of his last 49 batters, but allowed two home runs and seven runs to Cleveland last time out with a .500 BABIP, but just an 84.3 mph EV. The Yankee fans naturally booed a guy with a 3.03 ERA and 28.6 K-BB% without a single estimator reaching three. Neither recent performance, nor hamstring issues are the main reasons for concern here, but the fact that he’s pitching at Fenway under hitter friendly conditions, according to Weather Edge (though that could change) with the potential for a delay (currently YELLOW/ORANGE) are factors in our pitching decisions tonight. The Red Sox have a 118 wRC+ at home, 110 wRC+ vs RHP and league high 169 wRC+ over the last seven days. The projected lineup includes just four batters above a 19 K% vs RHP this year. This is probably the worst pitching spot on the board outside Coors. In fact, it’s fairly telling that Boston sits in the middle of the board, at 4.4 implied runs against the potential Cy Young award winner. There are so many reasons to fade Cole in this spot that he makes a great GPP play should ownership projections drop low enough.

Frankie Montas and Nathan Eovaldi each reach the $10K mark on one site tonight. For Montas, it’s DraftKings, while costing $1.3K less on FanDuel. He has failed to record multiple seventh inning outs (or a quality start) in just one of his last six starts and has allowed more than three runs in just one of his last 15. With a heavy workload and 26.5 K%, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.57 ERA. This is great! Pitching in an negative run environment, he must be our guy tonight, right? Hold on because he’s facing the Astros (115 wRC+ on the road, 117 wRC+ vs RHP). While each of the last three batters in the projected lineup exceeds a 28 K% vs RHP this year, only one of the first six is above 20.2%.

Eovaldi faces the same environmental issues as Cole, but has the superior matchup (Yankees 99 wRC+ vs RHP, four of nine projected exceed a 25 K% vs RHP). He also has a 30.9 K% (26.8 K-BB%) over his last 13 starts with a 3.79 ERA that’s more than a half run above estimators over that span with a .326 BABIP and 72 LOB%. On the season, a 3.58 ERA is just slightly above his worst estimator, a 3.53 SIERA. Should the weather outlook improve, Eovaldi could be an interesting arm tonight with just a $300 difference in price between sites.

While Jose Berrios exceeds $9K on both sites in his trip back to Minnesota, Dylan Cease costs exactly that much on either site and has struck out at least nine in three of his last four starts. He is up to a 31.6 K% this season, but with a more inconsistent walk rate (11.2%) over his last eight starts. He still has a 21.8 K-BB% with estimators about half a run below his 4.09 ERA on the season. As a bit of trivia, he’s allowed exactly four hits in seven straight starts. As mentioned before, the White Sox did clinch the division last night. Will that have an effect on Cease’s workload here? If not, he may be the top value on the board. The Indians have just a 90 wRC+ vs RHP and five of nine in their projected lineup have a strikeout rate above 27.5% vs RHP this year.

Dylan Cease has reverted back to old habits in recent starts. That is to say that he’s walked at least three in four of his last seven, allowing at least three runs in five of those starts (though more earned runs only in his last start). The good news is that even with an 11.5 BB% over his last seven starts and 13.2 BB% over his last five, Cease is retaining a strikeout rate above 30% and still has a 21.3 K-BB% with estimators below four on the season. The better news is that he faces the Rangers (86 wRC+ vs RHP) in a negative run environment (with the roof closed) and costs no more than $9.1K on either site. Three of the first five projected batters in the Texas lineup have at least a 28 K% vs RHP this year. Cease may be the top FanDuel value ($8.6K) if he can rediscover his control.

Cease may be the only pitcher on the board with a price tag below $9K who can stand alone as a strong value on either site. German Marquez is within $200 of $9K on either site in Washington, one of the few pitchers who can call that a park upgrade, but recorded just his second quality start in six outings last time out with six shutout innings against the Phillies (six strikeouts), though he still has a 6.23 ERA and 5.57 FIP over this span. He’s had two games with three home runs and just a 64% strand rate, but is keeping more than half his contact on the ground this season (51.2%) with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE. In fact, 19 of his 22 barrels have left the yard. Combine that with a 16.1 K-BB% and Marquez’s estimators are all within half a run of his 3.93 ERA, all below four. That’s good, but not great and only three batters in the projected Washington lineup exceed a 20.4 K% vs RHP.

Luis Castillo allowed more than three runs in a game for just the second time since May last time out, but it was still a respectable performance (7 IP – 4 ER – 5 K) with 70% of his contact on the ground. In fact, he’s generated at least a 53.3 GB% in 13 straight starts with a 26 K%, 3.28 ERA and 3.36 xFIP over that span. Season estimators are all above three and a half, but below his 4.24 ERA. That’s pretty good and he would be a strong candidate for $9K or less in most spots, but against the Dodgers (108 wRC+ vs RHP, 137 wRC+ last seven days) in Cincinnati might be an exception. For those looking for a lower priced SP2 on DraftKIngs, Elieser Hernandez combines a league average strikeout rate (23.4%) with elite control (4.4 BB%) and has a great matchup (Pirates 82 wRC+) in a great park at a low cost $6.8K.

Should you be considering dipping below $9K for your pitching needs, Dylan Cease is your guy for exactly $8.6K on both sites. In fact, there could be an argument to be made that he’s the top pitcher on the board tonight or at least close to it, which would make him the top value. Cease may have a 4.55 ERA over his last five starts, but also a 31.9 K% and 23.5 K-BB% with just an 87.4 mph EV. That doesn’t sound like an exit velocity that might produce a 23.8 HR/FB over this span. For the season, his 4.14 ERA is a bit higher than estimators tightly ranging from a 3.67 FIP to a 3.94 xERA. Cease’s plate discipline rates are improved across the board on his Fangraphs page, which has helped him increase his K-BB% by nearly 50% over his career rate this year. The Twins do have a 101 wRC+ and 15.3 HR/FB vs RHP. This lineup is no pushover and Cease has allowed 11 runs (four home runs) in 16.1 innings against them this year, but that also includes a 20+ K-BB% that tracks nearly perfectly with his season mark. The matchup appears to be well priced into the cost already.

If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 partner on DraftKings, the choices are even less ideal that usual. Matt Manning has the prospect pedigree and a great matchup against the Rangers (11 wRC+, 27 K% since the break), but an 8.9 K% (5.5 SwStr%), 1.0 K-BB%, 91 Z-Contact% and 90.8 mph EV through five starts. Perhaps the pitcher opposing him may be a better choice for $6.6K. Jordan Lyles allowed four home runs last time out. It’s the second time he’s done that in the span of six outings. In between, he allowed one total and six runs over 25 innings. Overall, he can’t be very effective with a 34.5 GB% and 90.6 mph EV with just a 10.5 K-BB%. Most estimators confirm his 5.20 ERA, but the Tigers have a 91 wRC+ and 26.2 K% vs RHP, though they’ve decided to stop striking out since the break. The projected lineup still includes just two batters below a 23.5 K% vs RHP this season. Ideally, players may wish to sacrifice some offense for a Cease/McCullers combo tonight.

Brandon Woodruff is the most expensive pitcher on the slate and the only one above a 30% strikeout rate (31.1%). He is $1.8K more expensive than any other pitcher on FanDuel ($11.4) and exactly $1K less on DraftKings. Despite an 86.8 mph EV for the season, his last start against the Cubs was the first time in five starts he hadn’t allowed a home run with six of his nine surrendered on the season coming over that span. With a 24.8 K-BB% and 4.7% Barrels/BBE, a 3.11 SIERA is his worst estimator, even if they’re all well above his 1.87 ERA (.203 BABIP, 86.6 LOB%). The Mets have a 92 wRC+, 24.4 K% and 12.4 HR/FB against RHP and play in one of the more negative run environments in baseball. From those aspects, this looks like a great spot for Woodruff. However, the Mets’ lineup is now nearly back to full strength with McNeil, Conforto and Nimmo returning recently after long absences. This should be a much better lineup when healthy. Weather Edge also currently suggests a large enough boost to make Citi Field a positive run environment tonight (although that could change). While Woodruff is certainly one of the top three pitchers on the slate, he does have some competition from slightly lower priced arms and may not be the top value among higher priced arms.

Dylan Cease is $9.6K on DraftKings and $1.2K less on FanDuel, while Joe Musgrove is $9.6K on FanDuel, yet $900 cheaper on DraftKings. These are the two pitchers who have the potential to give Woodruff a run for the top spot tonight. Musgrove did not have an entirely smooth month of June with estimators north of four and a half with just a 23.1 K% over five starts last month. He also allowed five home runs with just a 37.7 GB% in June. For the season, he still has a 23.8 K-BB% with estimators healthily in the low threes, but the drop in strikeouts and ground balls, along with velocity might be worth watching. Another issue we have with him, especially at his higher price tag on FanDuel, is that Musgrove has only gone beyond five innings or completed six in seven of 15 starts. He did do this three times in a row though, until his last start. The matchup may be superior though. The Nationals have a 94 wRC+, 23.2 K% and 15 HR/FB vs RHP, which doesn’t sound enticing, but with Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber currently missing, it really lacks any imposing figures outside of Juan Soto, while Petco may be the most negative run environment on the slate.

With just the fourth highest price tag on FanDuel, Dylan Cease may be the top value on the entire slate. The Twins have a 102 wRC+, 22.7 K% and 15.5 HR/FB vs RHP, but like the Nationals, they’re currently missing key bats (Josh Donaldson, Byron Buxton). The projected lineup includes just two batters above a .180 ISO vs RHP since 2020 and three above a .335 wOBA. The three walks Cease issued to the these Twins last time out were his most in seven starts (6.9 BB%, 29.6 K%) and he’s done this with his velocity increasing as well. There’s been a small shift towards more curveballs (18.4%) over this run, but the real difference has been his ability to start plate appearances with a strike more often (59.7%). Estimators for the season are all now within one-quarter of a run of his 3.75 ERA. A quick peak at Statcast Park Factors and Weather Edge also currently tells us that the park in Minnesota may retain it’s negative run environment properties tonight. At a cost of $900 more than Musgrove on DraftKings, the two may be of equal value there, but both may be a better value than Woodruff on either site.

Two starts ago, Dylan Cease three hit the Tigers without a walk for seven innings with nine strikeouts. Nobody made a big deal about it because it was the Tigers. Last time out, he shut out the Reds over six innings on one hit (three walks) with 11 strikeouts in Cincinnati. Slightly more impressive. He has a 15.9 SwStr% over these two efforts, but the biggest change may be strike one. His F-Strike has nearly doubled to 63% over these two starts, which has a byproduct of more swing and misses outside the zone later in the count. In fact, his overall Zone rate hasn’t increased at all. Estimators are higher than his 2.37 ERA due to a 7.1 HR/FB and 84.8 LOB%, but all are now below four. The Twins are not usually an offense you want to roster pitchers against because even without Byron Buxton, they still include five batters above a .260 ISO vs RHP since 2019 in their projected lineup. However, it also includes four batters below a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days overall and three batters above a 30 K% vs RHP since 2019. Not many should be on Dylan Cease tonight, but he costs just $7K on DraftKings.

One offense pitchers love to roster pitchers against is the Baltimore Orioles, especially against RHP (81 wRC+). Marcus Stroman is generally considered a contact prone, ground ball pitcher and for most of April that’s exactly what he was. However, he’s now struck out 14 of his last 44 batters with a 15.4 SwStr%. His new split seems to be improved from his former changeup, as he’s now throwing three non-sinker pitches at least nine percent of the time with a greater than 30% whiff rate on swings. If he can combine even a league average strikeout rate with his current 55 GB%, he’s more than a middle of the rotation pitcher. A higher price tag (above $8K on FD, $9K on DK) with the perception that he doesn’t miss many bats might have most players bypassing him even against the Orioles tonight.