Covering the Bases: Sunday, August 20
STLCardinals84, one of the best tournament players in the game, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! We have the usual Sunday slate on tap for us today, with nine games available on the main slate. This is an intriguing slate where I expect ownership to be concentrated on the pitching side but spread out on the hitting side. It should be a fun one to break down.
Also, for those of you on the West Coast that may be impacted by the hurricane that is rolling in, I hope you all stay safe!
Let’s see what this slate has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
Top Tier Pitching
Max Scherzer vs. Brewers
Max Fried vs. Giants
Hunter Brown vs. Mariners
Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Guardians
In my opinion, we have a clear tier of four at the top today with a major dividing line between this quartet and the rest of the pitching options on the slate. As usual, here’s a look at the 2023 data to date:
Scherzer – 3.67 ERA, 3.86 xFIP, 28% K, 7% BB
Fried – 2.57 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, 23% K, 5% BB (42 innings)
Brown – 4.16 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 27% K, 7% BB
Rodriguez – 3.13 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 25% K, 6% BB
If we are going for longer term data, it’s going to be Scherzer and Fried getting the most attention. Both have strong reputations as aces, and that’s going to show up in our biases today. The matchups are solid, especially for Scherzer who gets to face a high strikeout Brewers team that doesn’t really impose a lot of fear into opposing pitchers. Meanwhile, we haven’t seen crisp strikeout stuff from Fried in his eight starts yet this year, and I’m a little less inclined to trust him as a chalky option today — even though the Giants also have been striking out at a high clip this year against LHP. Give me Scherzer over Fried here.
I am going to take a stand on trusting Hunter Brown today. Recent game log watchers will run away from him given his relative struggles of late. The Astros skipped his last start in an effort to manage his innings a bit, though he did pitch out of the bullpen for two innings. The overall season numbers are still very strong with a 3.30 xFIP and 27% strikeout rate, and a lot of his struggles lately can be attributed to some bad BABIP luck. I really like this spot against a Seattle team that has the second highest team strikeout rate against RHP so far this season.
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