Eduardo Rodriguez Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

If you’re someone looking for mid-range value pitching, then PlateIQ projections favor three guys between a $7-$9K price point on a point per dollar or value basis. Eduardo Rodriguez is the top projected value in that price range and second best point per dollar projection on FanDuel overall. Marco Gonzales is cheaper with a better point per dollar projection, but is probably not someone players are considering rostering on a single pitcher site. E-Rod set season highs with eight strikeouts and 6.2 IP last time out, but still had just an 8.1 SwStr%. His velocity also matched his first start, which matches his lowest average velocity game from last year as well, according to Fangraphs velocity graphing. While estimators now seem to believe his ERA is flying a bit high (4.50) with a 23 K%, a 3.65 K/SwStr is completely unsustainable. We can expect the 44.6 LOB% to regress, but if he doesn’t start missing more bats, the strikeout rate will as well without much improvement upon surface results. That said, the park is pitcher friendly and the Orioles offer some further upside against LHP (81 wRC+, 27.5 K%).

Projections for FanDuel also favor Nick Pivetta for $7K, although he’s $500 more and a much more marginally projected value on DraftKings. He did throw six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and no walks against the White Sox last time out. It was also the lowest average velocity game of his career, according to Fangraphs. With that start, he’s up to a 13.4 K-BB%, but with just a 27.2 GB% and 93.2 mph EV. Just four of nine barrels (11.7%) have left the yard, yet he still has a 6.08 ERA with estimators ranging from a 4.06 SIERA to a 5.48 xERA. The matchup (Rangers 81 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP) with a large park upgrade (especially if the roof is closed in Texas) are a reasonable attraction here, but Pivetta is a very high risk arm.

Framber Valdez projects as a top seven value on FD, but much more marginal on DK at a similar price tonight, just a bit above $8K. He recorded a season low two-thirds of his contact on the ground last time out. His 72 GB% leads the league by a wide margin, making him valuable enough in and of itself, posting four quality starts in six attempts. He’s allowed just 26 batted balls that weren’t grounders and not a single barrel yet, but a 7.9 K-BB% is another story. Even still, in this depressed run environment, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.34 ERA with none dipping below three. You’re looking for volume here and a strong shot at a Quality Start, which is where a lot of his FD value will come from. The Nationals have just a 59 wRC+ at home this year and 84 wRC+ vs LHP. However, this is firmly a positive run environment against a team that doesn’t strike out (16.7 K% and 7.0 K-BB% vs LHP).

Covering the bottom of the board ($7K or less) for those who might looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings specifically… Chris Paddack has not walked any of the 39 batters he’s faced, nor has he allowed a home run with exactly half his contact on the ground and just one barrel against him. His 11.8 SwStr% is right on his career rate (11.3%) too, but he’s struck out just seven of 39 (17.9%). The velocity was down significantly in his first start under difficult weather conditions, but bumped back up to 94 mph last time out. He may be a bit too cheap against the Tigers (89 wRC+, 25.5 K% vs RHP) and does projected as a top three point per dollar value (PlateIQ) on either site tonight.

It was very plain for everyone to see that Eduardo Rodriguez pitched better than his 4.74 ERA last year. His estimators were more than a run lower and the Tigers rewarded him handsomely based on those. Unfortunately, those estimators have adjusted to meet last year’s ERA. E-Rod has just a 9.9 K-BB% and 7.5 SwStr% through three starts. The contact profile isn’t any sexier. Opponents have drilled him for a 93.5 mph EV (9.3% Barrels/BBE) with just a 31 GB%. The odd thing is that his BABIP is actually down 95 points from last season. He currently projects as the top point per dollar value on either site. The Twins have been perfectly average against LHP (98 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 14.4 HR/FB).

Much like last year, half of Marcus Stroman’s contact has been on the ground, which is actually a bit low for him traditionally, but unlike last year, he’s allowed 14 runs over his first three starts. It took him eight starts to allow that many last year. The strikeouts have been there (22.7%), despite just a 7.7 SwStr% and he’s walked 9.7%. You may want to say the .333 BABIP and 30 HR/FB are bound for some serious regression, as he’s allowed more home runs (three) than barrels (two), but opposing batters also have averaged 93.1 mph of exit velocity on contact. He’s in one of the tougher parks (Atlanta) against one of the better offenses (100 wRC+ vs RHP), but there is some upside here (24.6 K% vs RHP) and $5.9K on DK may be too cheap.

So much for the Eduardo Rodriguez regression tour. He was stomped for six runs over 3.1 innings by the Yankees at Fenway last time out, despite striking out eight of 21 batters. The .778 BABIP was ridiculous, driving his season rate back up to .369 with just a 64% strand rate, but he also walked four and allowed a lot of loud contact (92.6 mph EV). Some of this was his fault. None the less, estimators remain two runs below his 5.60 ERA. Four of the first five projected batters in the Detroit lineup and five overall exceed 24.5 K% vs LHP this season. At $9K on DraftKings, ERod is a marginal option, but a great GPP play for $1.4K less on FanDuel.

Below him, in the $7K range, it’s not that a lot of lower priced pitchers are incredibly trust worthy or they’d certainly cost a lot more, but there are some interesting names lower on the board, especially for those in the SP2 market on DraftKings. Drew Smyly’s 24.1 K% in July was his highest of any month, but so was a 10.2 BB%. After a very rough start to the season, his ERA is down to a respectable 4.40, but estimators are a bit higher, partially because six of his 51 runs have been unearned. The Cardinals have a predominantly RH lineup, but just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP and play in a very pitcher friendly park. Smyly won’t have to do too much to pay off $6.8K on DraftKings.

Sure, there’s Coors, but the Cubs have a team 77 wRC+ on the road this year and four batters in tonight’s projected lineup exceed a 26 K% vs RHP. Jon Gray’s 21.7 K% and 50.9 GB% have some value, specifically with just 5.4% Barrels/BBE while pitching half his games at Coors. He costs just $7.2K on DK tonight. Lastly, through eight starts, Zach Thompson has estimators around four with a 25.9 K%. While the strikeout rate has been dropping recently, he faces a struggling offense (Mets 77 wRC+ last seven days) in a favorable park for just $7K on DK.

Interestingly, there are several starting pitchers in the middle of tonight’s board, who may not have overly exciting matchups are incredible strikeout rates, but are just simply under-valued. This group includes two pitchers facing each other in a matchup of above average offenses in a negative run environment, a quality pitcher in a decent spot and a pitcher who’s estimators are much higher than his ERA in a great park.

Eduardo Rodriguez has a 27.4 K%, 5.6 BB% and has allowed just 7.5% Barrels/BBE. Somehow, that’s resulted in a 5.83 ERA. The culprits are a .374 BABIP and 62.4 LOB%. A 4.40 DRA is his only estimator within even two runs of his ERA. Actual results have kept his daily fantasy cost depressed. He costs exactly $7.4K on either site and while the Athletics have a 102 wRC+ vs LHP, Oakland is one of the more negative run environments in the league, while the A’s have just a 56 wRC+ and 8.3 HR/FB over the last seven days. Opposing ERod is Frankie Montas, who was lit up for eight runs by Texas two starts back, but has otherwise pitched well this season with a 24 K% (17.7 K-BB%). The contact profile is a bit of a problem (39.3 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.6% Barrels/BBE), which has resulted in a 4.42 xERA that’s closes to his actual 4.72 ERA. Yet, he too seems under-valued within $100 of $8K on either site. The Boston offense is the opposite of Oakland’s with a 159 wRC+ and 17 K% over the last week, but they get a significant park downgrade, going from Fenway to Oakland and do have a 24.2 K% vs RHP, facing a pitcher who has seven quality starts, despite the elevated ERA.

Jordan Montgomery’s 4.06 ERA is very closely linked to his SIERA (4.03) and xERA (3.93). That’s simply a somewhat average pitcher, but Statcast tells us that Yankee Stadium is a slightly negative run environment and the weather is not expected to change that tonight. While the Mets do add a DH tonight, they still have just a 91 wRC+ and 25.2 K% vs LHP. An average pitcher in a decent spot should carry an above average price tag, yet Montgomery costs less than $7.5K on either site.

Kyle Gibson struck out a season high 10 Royals over seven shutout innings (exacting some revenge for the whooping they laid on him Opening Day), driving his strikeout rate above 20% (20.9%) and his ERA down to exactly 2.00. He’s not that good (2.40 ERA, 85.1 LOB%), but has generated more than half his contact on the ground (51.8%) with just 4.4% Barrels/BBE. His xERA and FIP run in the lower threes, while non-contact including ones are around four. Yet, he’s not being priced like a two ERA pitcher. He’s within $400 of $8K in a strong, if not great, spot in Seattle. It’s another very negative run environment and while the projected lineup now only includes one batter above a 25 K% vs RHP since 2020, the offense still lacks quality bats and has just an 86 wRC+ at home and 91 wRC+ vs RHP. Also note that Logan Gilbert has been impressive on the other side of this matchup and is just $6.6K on DraftKings. He has productively struck out 26.2% of the batters he’s faced with a 5.4 BB% through eight starts, which makes up for a 32.3 GB% and 91.2 mph EV (10.1% Barrels/BBE). Estimators range from a 3.71 FIP to a 4.48 DRA and while his last start was suspended by rain after two innings, the Mariners let him hit 100 pitches in two of his previous three. The Rangers have a few hot bats, but just a 91 wRC+ and 24.8 K% vs RHP this year.

The great regression has not yet begun. That is to say that Eduardo Rodriguez keeps getting pummeled (7.63 ERA last nine starts) despite estimators below four (3.74 FIP, 3.61 xFIP) over that span. This includes a 25.7 K% (17.8 K-BB%), .441 BABIP and 59.3 LOB%. If you’re looking for a culprit, his 28.2 LD% stands as one, which is more launch angle than exit velocity (89.2 mph EV), but .4-freakin-41!!! He has a 20.6 K-BB% for the season with a 6.21 ERA and a 4.78 DRA his only estimator above four. By his underlying numbers and estimators, Rodriguez might be the best value on the board. He costs exactly $6.4K on either site in one of the highest upside matchups possible. In a negative run environment, he takes on the Rays (87 wRC+ vs LHP). Five of nine projected starters for Tampa Bay exceed a 29 K% against LHP since 2020.

Should you be looking for a cheap SP2 to pair with your high priced stud on DraftKings and still be fearful of ERod’s ERA, there are a number of additional options today. Like Rodriguez, Brady Singer has estimators well below his 4.76 ERA (though not to the same extent). With a 23.3 K%, 50.5 GB% and just 4% Barrels/BBE, his 3.60 xERA and 3.45 FIP (8.6 HR/FB) are his best estimators and only ones below four, though none are higher than a 4.23 DRA. The Yankees have just a 95 wRC+ and 25.3 K% vs RHP. Singer costs $5.3K on DraftKings. A season high eight strikeouts against the Twins last time out pushes Chris Flexen’s strikeout rate up to 15.9% (8.7 SwStr%), though he’s had a double digit SwStr% in three of his last four starts. With near immaculate control (4.3%) he could stick around a while with an increased strikeout rate as only his DRA (5.33) is more than one-third of a run removed from his 4.12 ERA currently. What we really love here is the park and matchup. The Rockies have a 58 wRC+ and 27 K% on the road this year with just a 71 wRC+ vs RHP. Flexen costs $5.5K on DK. Ross Stripling struck out a season high nine Yankees last time out and although he’s allowed seven runs over his last 12.1 innings, we’re now looking at a 25 K% with just a 6.9 BB%. Unfortunately, a 3.89 SIERA is his only estimator below four and while his 4.64 ERA is still above all those estimators, it’s mostly justified by a 90.4 mph EV and 11.5% Barrrels/BBE to go along with a 37.5 GB% (4.56 xERA). He too gets a park upgrade against the Marlins (93 wRC+, 25.1 K% vs RHP) with a cost below $6K.

Two additional pitchers who may be able to stand on their own are Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal. Alcantara has completed six innings in 13 of 15 starts with 11 quality starts this season. The 23.3 K% won’t blow you away, but a 13.3 SwStr% suggests the potential for growth behind a fantastic contact profile (53.9 GB%, 87.2 mph EV, 3.5% Barrels/BBE). Estimators range from 2.84 xERA to a 3.96 DRA. He’s still affordable because the matchup is a bit tougher. The Blue Jays have a 111 wRC+ with only one batter in the projected lineup exceeding a 24.5 K% vs RHP, but this is a potentially a $10K pitcher in a $9K price tag, pitching in a great park where the Blue Jays lose the DH. Skubal allowed multiple home runs last time out for the first time in seven starts, but still authored a quality start. His 34.7 K% over the last month is third best on a board full of studs and striking out 33.7% over seven has really keeps his ERA and estimators around three and a half over that span with a FIP closer to four because he’s still generating lots of hard contact (92.2 mph EV) in the air (37.7 GB%) when they do hit the ball (18.6 HR/FB). The Cardinals have a 101 wRC+, but just a 10.7 HR/FB vs LHP. The drawback is that only one player in the projected lineup exceeds a 25 K% vs LHP since 2020, but SKubal costs just $6.6K on DraftKings.

There are several marginal, but no single great pitching option on a five game, Wednesday night slate, featuring weather concerns in Baltimore and Boston where Eduardo Rodriguez and James Paxton are pitching. The games in Seattle and Arizona features no weather concerns, but some interesting pitchers. Zac Gallen makes his first start for the Diamondbacks, having struck out 17 of his last 52 batters, allowing just two runs over his last 14 innings. His 28.5 K% and .291 xwOBA have come against a decent quality of opposition. His estimators run around a full run or higher above his 2.27 ERA due to an 11.9 BB%, .259 BABIP, 80.9 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB. While Arizona isn’t very power friendly, it’s still likely a park downgrade for Gallen coming from Miami and we can except to see him regress a bit. He faces a nearly league average Philadelphia offense with a 22.7 K% and 13.5 HR/FB vs RHP at a cost within $600 of $9K on either site. An argument can be made that Joey Lucchesi is the more interesting arm despite merely a league average strikeout rate (22.8%) and the completion of six innings in just two of his last seven starts. While nothing further stands out in his 4.23 ERA, 4.42 SIERA, 3.83 DRA or .308 xwOBA, Lucchesi is facing an offense with a team 52 wRC+, 32 K% and 5.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week. A look at tonight’s lineup in PlateIQ reveals a combined average 29.4 K% vs LHP this year, including seven of the nine batters with more than 60 PAs against southpaws this year. Each of the first five batters have struck out at least 24% of the time against LHP this year. Lucchesi may not give you the workload you want, but costs just $7.3K on FanDuel and is $600 less than Gallen on DraftKings.