Covering The Bases: MLB DFS Picks for Sunday, July 14th
Long-time grinder, stlcardinals84, is here to cover the bases for the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cards has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his favorite MLB DFS picks.
Happy Sunday, Grinders! Welcome to the final day before the All-Star Break. I hope you are all able to enjoy some time away from DFS for a few days coming up. The MLB grind is a LONG one with a 162 game season, and a small break is certainly welcome. Of course, we’ll all be anxious to get things going again once we see how slow the sports calendar is by the middle of the week, but it is still a good opportunity to clear the brain and start fresh.
If we’re trying to make this final day count before the break, we will probably need to find an offense that explodes. This 10-game Sunday slate lacks elite pitching options, and it is definitely more skewed toward the bats. It looks like a day where we don’t have much for weather concerns, with a YELLOW rating in Philadelphia being the only real concern. Keep an eye on our MLB Weather page that Roth updates leading up to lock for news on this, but I am going to write the article as if every game plays fine.
Let’s dig in and see what this Sunday has to offer for MLB DFS picks!
Sunday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
TOP TIER ARMS
Mitch Keller vs. White Sox
Nick Lodolo vs. Marlins
Ronel Blanco vs. Rangers
Max Scherzer vs. Astros
This is an interesting mix of top tier arms, and the discussion becomes even more interesting once we look at the 2024 numbers:
Keller – 3.40 ERA, 3.94 xFIP, 22% K, 6% BB
Lodolo – 3.30 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, 25% K, 7% BB
Blanco – 2.53 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 23% K, 10% BB
Scherzer – 3.09 ERA, 4.30 xFIP, 19% K, 3% BB (4 starts)
The first thing to note is that we simply aren’t getting an elite strikeout rate on this slate. Max Scherzer isn’t the same elite strikeout pitcher that he once was. Ronel Blanco has been great, but he isn’t a high strikeout arm. We just need to set the expectations that our strikeout ceiling options do not exist today.
The second thing to note is that if all circumstances were equal, Nick Lodolo would be my SP1 in a matchup against the Marlins. However, all circumstances are not equal. Lodolo just returned from injury five days ago against the Rockies, and he certainly showed some signs of rust, allowing four runs in 3 2/3 innings and just 69 pitches thrown. I’m concerned about the pitch limit here, and I do not want to put all my eggs in that basket today.
Ronel Blanco is a fine real life pitcher, but the 4.20 xFIP and the 10% walk rate simply do not deserve a salary tag of $9,600 on FD and certainly not $10,000 on DK. I’m out.
That leads me to Pittsburgh. While Paul Skenes gets all the national attention, Mitch Keller is quietly turning into an ace caliber pitcher in 2024. He has a 2.40 ERA since the beginning of May with a 63/12 K/BB ratio in that span. While he may not possess the most elite strikeout rate out there, he makes up for it by getting deep into games. He also draws a favorable matchup today against a weak White Sox lineup that has the 6th highest strikeout rate in baseball and a bottom six team wOBA and ISO against RHP so far in 2024. With question marks abounding on most of the pitchers today, Keller is my SP1.
I am ranking this tier as Keller > Lodolo > Scherzer > Blanco, and I feel pretty comfortable with that setup.
SECONDARY PITCHING OPTIONS
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