Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, July 29th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! We’ve got an interesting 8-game slate with a small top tier of ace pitchers and then just a huge tangle of mediocrity that extends all the way through the bats. I’ll do my best to sort through the tangle, but if you want the cliff notes before the cliff notes – throw random darts at all the offenses and hope you hit something.
There is at least one weather situation to keep an eye on, with Roth starting the day with an Orange in the CHC/CIN game. For now, I’ll be including that game in the analysis but will be ready to remove those players from my lineups if necessary when we get closer to lock.
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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
This pitching slate has some very clear dividing lines with Paul Skenes and three other aces having a huge lead over the rest of the field.
THE ACE AND THE OTHER ACES
Paul Skenes at Astros – 34.2% K, 4.6% BB, 1.93 ERA, 2.40 SIERA
Nick Pivetta vs. Mariners – 29.5% K, 6.1% BB, 4.50 ERA, 3.22 SIERA
Logan Gilbert at Red Sox – 25% K, 4.9% BB, 2.72 ERA, 3.44 SIERA
Nathan Eovaldi at Cardinals – 24.6% K, 6.1% BB, 3.31 ERA, 3.46 SIERA
Matchups matter, or whatever, I guess. But it does not appear as if Paul Skenes cares one teeny tiny iota about matchups or anything else. He’s just better than everyone else. Seriously, the dude is 22 years old, and he has a 97:13 K:BB ratio in his first 12 major league starts. If you’re curious about where he ranks in some particular pitching categories, let’s just see:
K-BB% – 1st
ERA – 1st
SIERA – 1st
It’s a low-strikeout matchup against Houston….ooohhhh noooo! He’s super scared, I’m sure. You fine folks can do whatever you want. I would recommend just playing the best pitcher in the world.
OK, so after Skenes, you still need another pitcher on DK, and maybe you even need a lineup or two somewhere where you spend down and hope that Skenes is merely great and not slate-breaking. In that case, we’re looking at an interesting matchup in Boston. We have the good, steady Logan Gilbert in a tough matchup against the Red Sox. He is facing the high-strikeout, but riskier Nick Pivetta in a better matchup against the Mariners. Even before factoring in the sizeable salary gap, I prefer…
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