Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Monday, September 23rd
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Monday! We are down to the final week of the MLB regular season, which means we will begin to see some shenanigans ensue, particularly as teams begin to clinch their playoff seedings. However, I am also mostly of the opinion that people put way too much stock into things that we can’t possibly know or predict. For the most part, the only thing that will happen this week that moves the needle for me in DFS is when we get to the last start of the season for pitchers on teams who are going to be in the playoffs. In those situations, it is reasonable to expect pitch counts to be cut short enough to matter. We should also see some of those playoff teams giving different hitters a day off here and there, but we’ll know who those hitters are once we see the lineups. With teams who have been eliminated, unless we hear something official, I am just assuming they are playing these games the same as they would in July or August.
Basically, it’s business as usual while keeping an eye out for pitchers whose innings will be cut short.
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Monday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
I see 7 of the 8 pitchers on this slate being MME viable, though we’ll end up with a pretty clear top four after digging through all this. I’m separating things into two buckets based on salary.
TOP TIER PITCHING
Hunter Brown vs. Mariners – 24.8% K, 8.3% BB, 3.57 ERA, 3.78 SIERA
Aaron Nola vs. Cubs – 23.7% K, 6.2% BB, 3.54 ERA, 3.75 SIERA
Bryce Miller at Astros – 24.4% K, 6.3% BB, 3.06 ERA, 3.79 SIERA
Chris Bassitt vs. Red Sox – 22.6% K, 8.6% BB, 4.16 ERA, 4.19 SIERA
Tanner Houck at Blue Jays – 21.2% K, 6.5% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.69 SIERA
These five pitchers have remarkably similar skill sets, which will allow us to lean a little more into matchups as a deciding factor. With the matchups added in, Hunter Brown jumps to the top of the list at home against the high-strikeout Mariners. However, I will also point out that the Red Sox’s current lineup has just as many strikeouts as the Mariners, making for a good situation for Chris Bassitt as well.
With Houston in must-win mode, I see no reason to expect anything different from the same 95-100 pitches we’ve seen in 11 straight starts for Hunter Brown. He rarely pops off for huge strikeout games and rarely allows more than a couple of runs. Since his early season struggles, he’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in the league, and that’s how I’m viewing him tonight. At least the top three pitchers on this slate are extremely close, but for me, the SP1 is…
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