Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Thursday 7/31

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-31 14:28:31 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Thursday! We have a very slow day in MLB as we come to the trade deadline. There are just 3 games spread throughout the day, but DK is running a big enough slate with all 3 games that we will Muse!

On such a small slate, we have to be at least a little concerned with the MLB weather in the TB/NYY game. The early report has it as Yellow/Orange, with a slight potential for a shortened game. For now, I’m not going to change my plans one iota with this game, but I will definitely check back before lock and see if it’s looking any worse.

Editor’s Note: Looking for more places to play? Check out our Sleeper promo code and PrizePicks promo code, two of the best DFS apps available today.

Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

Essentially, we have four pitchers who might be viable on a bigger slate, and then two cheap jabronis who are only going to be mentioned because it is a 3-gamer. Ownership is likely to be obscene on George Kirby, so let’s see if we can find any reason to go with the fade.

TOP TIER FOURSOME – OR TRIO PLUS A ROCKER

• George Kirby vs. Rangers – 25% K, 5.9% BB, 4.50 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
• Andrew Abbott vs. Braves – 22.8% K, 6.7% BB, 2.09 ERA, 4.03 SIERA
• Kumar Rocker at Mariners – 20% K, 7.9% BB, 5.73 ERA, 4.16 SIERA
• Ryan Pepiot at Yankees – 24.3% K, 8.2% BB, 3.42 ERA, 3.88 SIERA

I have been saying for weeks now that George Kirby looks as good as ever under the hood, despite some borderline surface stats. The swinging strikes had been perking up for a while, and they really came out to play last start with 9 strikeouts in 6 strong innings. Tonight, he’s back at home, where he has expectedly been much better every season. The matchup with Texas is about as neutral as it gets. They are near the middle of the pack in every offensive category against right-handed pitching. While Kirby is a little better to righties, he’s not as goofy splitsy as some of his teammates, so nothing changes all that much based on how many lefties the Rangers use. My initial thought here is that he is going to be something like 80-90% owned in smaller field contests and 70%+ in large field. As the best pitcher on the board, I have no real issue with that. However, I will say that even as much as I like him, he’s still not one of those 30% K pitchers who regularly puts up have-to-have-it starts. It’s difficult to imagine losing because of him, but it’s also kind of difficult to imagine him putting up such a massive score that you can’t possibly win without it. Let me see if I can make enough of a case for two of these other pitchers to get to a fade of this massive chalk.

Hey guys, guess what??? Andrew Abbott and Ryan Pepiot both have lower ERAs than George Kirby!! 1980s Dave is very excited! (1980s Dave only knew about ERA and wins 😊 )

Certainly, the .255 BABIP and 7.9% HR/FB% of Andrew Abbott are fluky low, but he definitely deserves some credit for those numbers. He has one of the lowest hard hit rates in the league and allows under 8% barrels to both sides of the plate. It still seems like he should run into some serious home run issues in his home ballpark with all his fly balls, but what if this is just who he is? He has a closer-to-normal 10.7% HR/FB rate in Cincinnati, which leads to a 1.29 HR/9 and a 3.64 ERA. So, basically, at home, with what he’s actually done so far this season, he’s something like a 3.64 pitcher. The homers he’s allowed at home have generally come at times when it doesn’t hurt him, and there are plenty of ways he can allow another couple homers and still be fine here. He is not going to spike a big K per inning ceiling, but he has a long leash when things go his way. The ballpark is, of course, a big deal, but his matchup with Atlanta is very similar to the matchup for Kirby against Texas. They are a middle-of-the-pack team that just doesn’t scare me all that much. Of course I prefer Kirby today, but so does everyone. I see this as a very reasonable pivot to be a little different.

Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!