George Kirby Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

The top three projected values on FanDuel cost no more than $9K, while the next three each cost more than that. Are all of these pitchers lesser costing pitchers single pitcher site rosterable though? A top two projecting value and overall pitcher on either site, George Kirby has struck out just for of his last 39 batters with as many walks and has exceeded 88 pitches in just one of his last 13 starts. He’s somehow able to overcome these conservative pitch count restrictions to get through six innings with extreme efficiency (24.5 K%, 3.6 BB%), but that hasn’t exactly been the case most recently and the Mariners certainly aren’t going to start pushing him here with more games to play after Wednesday. They can only effect whether they travel to Toronto or Cleveland. A 3.21 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. That said, the matchup is more than ideal (Tigers 74 wRC+, 24.7 K%, 7.5 HR/FB vs RHP). His bread and butter has been his four-seamer (45.3%, -2 RV/100, 27.1 Whiff%) and the Tigers are the fifth worst offense against fastballs since the break (-0.6 wFB/C). The workload may still be concerning enough to be cautious here.

Projecting as the second best FanDuel value, but just seventh best DraftKings one for $700 more, immediately after showing us his best against the Marlins and Pirates (12 IP – 2 R – 17 K), Carlos Carrasco has shown us his worst the last two times out against the Brewers and Marlins (7 IP – 7 R – 6 K). He’s been a bit banged up recently and his season numbers are not up to his past standards, but a 17.4 K-BB% is more than fine for a back end starter. All estimators are within half a run of his 3.95 ERA with a 4.09 xERA the only one above it. The Nationals (95 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP) have been worst against changeups than any other pitch since the break (-0.32 wCH/C), but does Washington have enough LHBs for Carrasco to fully exploit with his best pitch (24.7%, -1.1 RV/100, 32.2 Whiff%, .260 wOBA, .273 xwOBA)? This is a spot where we’re perhaps more concerned with performance than motivation, as the Mets still have a sliver of life in the division that’s worth fighting for until they’re officially eliminated, which could be tonight. Carrasco is the seventh best projected pitcher overall.

The sixth best projected pitcher overall, but a top three projected value, including the top projected DK value ($7.7K), Patrick Sandoval hasn’t gone six innings in four straight starts. His 23.7 K% is 2.2 points lower than last season, while he still struggled with control (9.6 BB% this year, 9.7% career). He has, however, managed contact very well (6.0%, 34.8% 95+ mph EV). In fact, 12.5% of his season barrels came in his last start, while 25% of them have come in his last four. The shorter outings may have some purpose behind them, although he did throw 94 pitches last time out, also against these A’s (88 wRC+, 22.6 K% vs LHP). While just eight of his 24 barrels have left the yard, all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.03 ERA. Also, 14.2% of his runs have been unearned. There’s neither reason to push, nor conserve him here, so if we’re assuming a standard workload, Sandoval may be viable on FanDuel tonight, but is certainly an SP2 option.

Considering some other SP2 types, It might be fairly useless to quote Jose Berrios’s numbers at this point (19.8 K%, 5.8 BB%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE with estimators ranging from a 4.11 SIERA to a 5.22 xERA). It would probably more benefit GPP players to point out that he has 10 Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts and has allowed at least four runs with less than five strikeouts 10 times also. Last time out, he struck out seven Yankees in 5.2 innings, but also allowed five more runs. Interestingly, the only pitch the Orioles (102 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP) have been below average against since the break is sliders and Berrios does not throw one. Berrios is cheap ($6.2K), but this game seems more likely not to play than to play tonight.

Adrian Martinez has allowed 13 home runs on 17 barrels (10%) over 11 starts. Sure, there’s probably some home run regression to come, but none of that is good and mostly wipes out what he’s accomplished with a respectable 13.1 K-BB%. He doesn’t have a single estimator below four or a single contact inclusive one below five. His slider does have a 40% whiff rate with a wOBA and xwOBA below .300, so perhaps he should throw it more than 20.7% of the time, especially against the Angels (-0.31 wSL/C since the break), who have a 96 wRC+ and 26.7 K% vs RHP, while Martinez costs less than $6K.

Bailey Ober struck out a season high 10 White Sox (93 wRC+, 21 K% vs RHP) in his last start. In fact, that represents more than one-fifth of his strikeouts on the season through 10 starts. With elite control (4.8 BB%), he’s shot up to a 22.6 K%. That sets his contact neutral estimators, but only three of his 17 barrels (11.4%) have left the yard, resulting in a massive gap between a 2.74 FIP and 4.78 xERA. No non-FIP estimators are below four. Ober costs $6.9K and the White Sox are coldest offense on the slate (45 wRC+, 22.3 K-BB%, 5.0 HR/FB last seven days).

Aaron Nola is the top projected pitcher and value on FanDuel tonight, but is the only one of the top five projected values there costing more than $9.2K (although projections are fluid and can change). Let’s see if we can find any that are useful on a single pitcher site. The top projected value on DraftKings and second best on FanDuel is Jake Odorizzi, who did strike out six of 25 batters, but was lit up for eight runs in Philadelphia last time out over just four innings of work. He’s struck out just 18.9% of batters and with a 45.5 Z-O-Swing%, it’s a bit of a surprise that he has just a 34.2% 95+ mph EV, but Odorizzi has made a career of living at the top of the zone and getting lots of popups (32.0 GB%, 14.4 IFFB%). This produces a 4.12 xERA, which is his best estimator, though all are within half a run of his 4.61 ERA. Odorizzi has completed six innings in just a quarter of his starts. He’s in a strong run prevention spot in Washington, but not a very high upside one (Nationals 95 wRC+, 20.1 K% vs RHP). Odorizzi probably works better as a DraftKings SP, especially costing $1.5K less.

George Kirby has an impressive 21.2 K-BB% in his rookie season and because he walks nobody (3.8%), he’s been able to register four post-break Quality Starts, despite exceeding 85 pitches just once. His 3.30 ERA is within one-twentieth of a run of all non-FIP estimators. It’s shocking that one-sixth of his walks this season came in his last start against the A’s, while he struck out just one of 17 batters. He currently projects as the third best pitcher and value on either site in a great spot at home against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 24.2 K% vs RHP), but check back again later to see if there’s a pitch count adjustment made that drops him a bit.

Taijuan Walker projects as the fourth best value on either site for less than $9K in a great spot. It’s pitcher friendly weather in a pitcher friendly park against a predominantly right-handed offense that has a 94 wRC+ and 22.6 K% vs RHP this year. However, with a 5.11 ERA/5.14 FIP/4.78 xFIP since the break, this marks the second straight year that Walker has pitched like an All-Start in the first half and cratered in the second half, though 2021 was even worse. Half of his barrels (16 of 33) and 10 of his 14 home runs have come in just 11 post-break starts, while his 16.7 K% is a drop off as well, dropping his post-break K-BB% into single digits. Walker has only exceeded five strikeouts in one of these starts, though that was against the Marlins, who have basically been one of the worst offenses in the league in the second half against every pitch Walker throws. While Walker also has a 37 point platoon split, batters from both sides of the plate have a .312 xwOBA against him.

Josiah Gray projects as a strong FanDuel value because he costs less than $8K and the Braves strike out a ton (25.2% vs RHP). However, not only has Gray allowed 37 home runs on 43 barrrels (10.7%), but now he’s also only struck out 12.8% of batters over his last five starts too (7.2 SwStr%). The velocity is fine and the Nationals keep running him out there for 90 or so pitches, so who knows? Non-FIP estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.17 ERA, while he still has a 24.2 K%, but also a 10.2 BB%. The Braves also have a 108 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB vs RHP.

On DraftKings, Jose Quintana is cheap enough ($6.7K) with a great defense behind him (17 Runs Prevented) if they all play tonight. The Brewers have an 89 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP. Quintana sits at exactly a 20% strikeout rate (13.3 K-BB%), which should be fine for this spot, especially with an 86.4 mph EV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE. Michael Lorenzen has a 4.78 ERA that’s only slightly above estimators ranging from a 4.12 xERA to a 4.61 FIP. While 50.2% of his contact has been on the ground, he has just an 8.7 K-BB%. He’s allowed 24 runs and seven home runs over his last 26.2 innings. He does get Oakland (85 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP) for $6.2K, but in a hitter friendly park with a hitter friendly umpire.

Players may be able to find some reasonable pitching choices at lower prices tonight, even on a one pitcher site like FanDuel. Adam Wainwright has completed six innings in eight of his last nine starts (seven Quality Starts). A board topping 21.6 CStr% gives him some leniency with a 6.5 SwStr%, but he’s still just producing an 18.5 K% this season and has exceeded five strikeouts in just two of his last 10 starts. He’s been able to suppress barrels well (6.7%), but just five of 16 have left the yard (6.7 HR/FB). Non-FIP estimators are around a run or more above his 3.06 ERA. If playing Wainwright for less than $8K, you’re in this for the floor, not the ceiling, even though he projects as the fourth best value on FanDuel currently. Milwaukee is a neutral run environment with the roof closed, which we want to make sure it is if rostering him. They also have a 101 wRC+, but 23.7 K% vs RHP.

Shane Baz’s 2022 debut caused some concern with reduced velocity, while walking three of 12 Twins with a home run allowed, while only striking out two. His second made us laugh that we were ever concerned because he followed it up with a velocity increase as he struck out seven of 21 Orioles without a walk or a run allowed. It’s easy to forget he still only has five major league regular season starts, but a 25.6 K-BB% will certainly do and with 76 pitches last time out, he’s probably already built up as far as the Rays are probably willing to let him go. He’s barely above $7K on FanDuel in a great park, but a tough matchup (Yankees 121 wRC+, 20.5 K%, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP). Baz is tonight’s sixth best projected value on FanDuel.

Daniel Lynch has busted out by striking out 17 of his last 45 batters with an 18.1 SwStr%. Enthusiasm is dampened a bit by recognizing that it was the Orioles and A’s, while he still allowed five runs over 10.1 innings. This does raise his season strikeout rate to 22.4% with a more impressive 13.0 SwStr%, but that’s really the only bright spot in a profile that also includes a 9.3 BB%, 91.3 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE. He has just one Quality Start, both because that’s the only time he’s completed six innings and because he’s allowed at least four earned runs five times. Non-DRA estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.19 ERA (.327 BABIP), though none stretch a full run. However, the Angels have just a 91 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP this year and Lynch costs $7.5K as the fifth best projected value on FanDuel. He may make a more interesting SP2 in DK GPPs for just $6K though.

Over on DraftKings, George Kirby ($6.6K) is the second best projected value and a great SP2 choice in Oakland. It hasn’t been a straight path, but half of Kirby’s first eight starts have been Quality Starts, including three of the last four. Strikeouts have been the most inconsistent, as he’s repeated only one total (three) between one and nine, but he’s walked just five to give him 20.1 K-BB% generating a matching 3.33 SIERA and xFIP. With 9.8% Barrels/BBE and a 16.0 HR/FB, contact inclusive estimators are a bit higher with his FIP (4.06) breaking four. What we really like is that he’s facing one of the weakest offenses in baseball (A’s 72 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 7.8 HR/FB vs RHP) in one of the best parks.

Jordan Montgomery is the proud owner of a 14.3 SwStr% (14.8% last 30 days) and five straight Quality Starts, over which he’s allowed a total of seven runs. Yet, he somehow hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in a single start yet. A 19.4 K% with that high a SwStr% (1.36 K/SwStr) is unheard of this deep into the season. It absolutely has to improve and when you pair it with a 3.8 BB% and 5.6% Barrels/BBE, Montgomery may go from good (all estimators below four) to great. Normally, you’d expect his 2.72 ERA to regress (.245 BABIP, 81.3 LOB%), but in case, perhaps we should expect his estimators to. The Rays (105 wRC+) have just an 18.6 K% vs LHP, but also just an 8.4 HR/FB. Montgomery may not increase his strikeout rate in this spot, but is still too cheap on DK.