Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Thursday, September 5th
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Thursday! As we enter NFL season, we’ll start to see MLB prize pools dwindle on Mondays, Thursdays, and Sundays (and Friday??). As an early heads-up, be aware that there will not be an MLB article on Sundays for the rest of this season as the NFL takes center stage. But while the rest of the world shifts their focus to football, I will remain laser focused on MLB for the final month of the season.
Today, the early 4-game slate has minuscule prize pools, so we’re just going to focus on the 5-game main slate which starts at 6:40 PM ET. It’s a strange little slate, with all 5 games starting with a meh total of 8 or 8.5 and no great hitting conditions anywhere, but there is also no elite pitching. Let’s dive in and see if we can find something to like.
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Thursday Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
For the third straight day, we are going to have a Braves pitcher as chalk against the Rockies. There looks to be a very clear top three arms, due more to the lack of other options past them:
TOP TIER PITCHING
Reynaldo Lopez vs. Rockies – 25.4% K, 8.5% BB, 2.00 ERA, 3.91 SIERA
Ranger Suarez at Marlins – 24.7% K, 5.6% BB, 3.02 ERA, 3.38 SIERA
Cody Bradford vs. Angels – 23.7% K, 3.7% BB, 3.21 ERA, 3.76 SIERA
These are not outstanding skill sets for heavy-chalk pitchers, but it’s also just one of those days where it may just be easiest to go with the ‘Don’t Overthink It’ approach, at least on DK where the salaries are on the lower side. The only thing that might be a stretch is pairing Reynaldo Lopez and Ranger Suarez together, but with Cody Bradford down at $7,900, I would expect the chalk build to be one of Lopez/Suarez along with Bradford.
Reynaldo Lopez has been steady since his brief IL stint, with a 23:5 K:BB ratio and just 3 runs allowed in 3 starts, going at least 90 pitches in each one. On a bigger slate, I’d be looking hard for a reason to fade Lopez chalk, but with the lack of pivots, I’m content just starting with him in all formats on all sites.
I could argue that Ranger Suarez is a better pitcher than Lopez, and he has an even better matchup than Lopez. Against LHP, Miami has struck out about as much as the Rockies, but they have even less power in addition to a good pitching ballpark. The concern here is that…
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