Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday, August 21st
CheeseIsGood, a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate. Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Cheese has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks.
Happy Wednesday! We’ve got a split slate day, with the main slate being an 8-gamer starting at the usual time of 7:05 PM ET. Before that, I’ll take a quick peek at the early 4-game slate, which starts at 1:10 PM ET. We will also have an early Crunch Time at 12:30 PM ET to go over any final thoughts about this early slate.
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Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings
There are not a lot of strong options, which looks to be leading to some very heavy chalk, starting with Logan Webb against the White Sox.
CROCHETING A WEBB
Logan Webb vs. White Sox – 20.7% K, 6.1% BB, 3.17 ERA, 3.61 SIERA
Garrett Crochet at Giants – 34.5% K, 5.9% BB, 3.61 ERA, 2.62 SIERA
Justin Verlander vs. Red Sox – 1st start off IL
This looks like the ideal spot for one of those patented Logan Webb gems where he throws 7-9 innings with 0-1 runs allowed and something close to a strikeout per inning. Because of his lack of elite strikeouts, there’s always the chance that BABIP can go funky on him, but it would be quite surprising if it happened here. To be clear, I don’t know if Webb has ever applied for a patent on outings with 7-9 innings and 0-1 runs, and I doubt they would grant it to him, but I’m no expert on patent law. I also am not completely certain on the difference between BABIP going funky and BABIP going wonky, but either way, I don’t expect it to happen here. Webb will be extremely popular, as he should be, and I don’t really care. He’s my SP1, and everyone else’s.
Even on just 55 pitches in 4 innings last week, the elite upside of Garrett Crochet was a slate winner, with an incredible 9 strikeouts. However, the pitch count has been so crazy low that even on a 4-game slate, I just can’t make a real case to play him. The margin for error is teeny tiny with such a low pitch count, and because he doesn’t have much of a discount, he’s just a random MME dart throw.
Justin Verlander hasn’t pitched since early June and threw just 57 pitches in his last rehab start. He likely only has a slightly longer leash than Crochet, and if I’m going to play a guy on a tight pitch count, it’s not going to be 41-year-old Verlander.
CHALKY SP2s
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