Million Dollar Musings: MLB DFS Picks Today for Wednesday 7/30

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2025-07-30 16:07:16 Premium Content Part of the product MLB DFS

Whether you are looking for the top pitchers or the best stacks, Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood) has you covered with an extensive deep dive into his MLB DFS picks. Cheese, one of the preeminent baseball minds in all of fantasy sports and a winner of a $1,000,000 1st-place prize on both DraftKings and FanDuel, is here to give you his musings on the upcoming MLB DFS slate.

Happy Wednesday! We have a split slate kind of day with a 6-game early slate starting at 1:10 PM ET, and then another 6-game evening slate starting a little early at 6:40 PM ET.

The early slate is a bit of a mess for content, with a Red/Orange on the MLB weather for the PHI/CWS game. I am leaving that game out of the analysis, though if it plays, the Phillies would move up towards the top of the board. We also have some mystery around the starting pitcher for the Twins. It was originally expected to be Bailey Ober coming off the IL, but now it sounds more likely to be Zebby Matthews. I have left the Ober analysis in the article while adding updates for Matthews. The big takeaway here is that Matthews is better than Ober, so this downgrades the Boston offense while making Matthews a top pitching option.

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Wednesday Early Pitching: MLB DFS Picks on FanDuel & DraftKings

We have three pitchers priced up from $8,900-$9,700 on DK. I don’t end up loving any of them, but I will put them in their own tier up top due to the pricing.

TOP TIER PITCHING

• Freddy Peralta vs. Cubs – 26.1% K, 8.4% BB, 2.81 ERA, 3.71 SIERA
• MacKenzie Gore at Astros – 29.3% K, 9% BB, 3.52 ERA, 3.42 SIERA
• Shota Imanaga at Brewers – 17.6% K, 5.4% BB, 3.12 ERA, 4.78 SIERA

MacKenzie Gore has great full-season numbers and a good matchup with a Houston team that has 6 batters in the projected lineup above 24% K against lefties. Because of all that, Gore is projecting at the top of the board today in both points and ownership. However, beyond that good news, Gore continues to fall apart after his strong start to the season. The overall numbers are being propped up by his great April-May numbers. More recently, the control has completely left him, with a scary 15.3% walk rate over his last 6 starts and just an 18.2% K rate over that same span. Maybe he can turn it around, and I certainly like the matchup, but at this moment, I just can’t get on board with spending this salary for a chalky guy who can’t find the strike zone.

I never love playing pitchers against the Cubs, but Freddy Peralta at least looks better than Gore right now. He’s been steady and solid, though he isn’t exactly likely to post a ceiling game, and certainly not in this matchup. I would play him ahead of Gore, but I really don’t love either of them.

Shota Imanaga has turned into a very low-strikeout pitcher who is reliant on HR/FB%. The matchup is OK in that regard, so I don’t mind him at all with his ability to pile up easy innings. For as good as Milwaukee is overall, they rank 26th in ISO against lefties and don’t have much in the way of power. There is not a single hitter in their entire lineup above an 8% barrel rate against lefties. Imanaga ends up as a guy that I would gladly play in any lineup where I have the salary, but he is also not likely enough to put up a big score that I would go out of my way to get him. I slightly prefer Peralta if I have the extra salary, but Imanaga is my SP2 without accounting for salary.

My overall view here is that I don’t see any must-have pitchers to spend on.

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