MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, April 14
Notorious walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Friday everyone! The weekend is here and we get to kick it off with a 12-game main slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
This is my first time writing the Top Stacks article, so hopefully we can get started off on a good note. Personally, I prefer the non-Coors Field slates. I’ve tried to be on both sides of the fence when it comes to stacking teams in the best hitter’s park and I can never seem to find the right balance. We don’t have to make that decision tonight, as the Rockies are on the road facing the Mariners.
This is actually shaping up to be a great slate for tournaments, as ownership should be spread out. This is due to three reasons in particular — we have 12 games to choose from, the sites did a nice job on the pricing for the slate, and the 12 teams with the highest run totals are separated by 0.60 runs. We typically see a much bigger gap between the highest run total and the teams with middling run totals.
Chalk Stacks
This is a rare slate where there aren’t any super popular stacks, but here are the two that project for the most ownership:
Cleveland Guardians vs. Trevor Williams
We will start off with the Guardians, who project as the most popular stack on both FanDuel (7.4%) and DraftKings (9.0%). These ownership numbers are much lower than we typically see for the most popular stack, so don’t hesitate to load up on Cleveland if you like their matchup against Williams.
Williams has been in the majors for eight years now and has never finished a season with an xFIP better than 3.94. Over the last two seasons, he’s posted mediocre results in terms of strikeouts (22%), walks (6%), and hard contact allowed (28%). While there isn’t anything glaring on the surface, he goes give up a lot of fly balls and has really struggled with batters from the left side of the plate. He has allowed a .364 wOBA with a strikeout rate of only 8.8% against lefties.