MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, August 2nd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We can stack up half of this slate pretty easily. Between the so-so chalk, some great offenses in great spots, some good offenses in fantastic spots, and some power potential against top-owned pitchers, there are seemingly infinite ways to build lineups tonight. In this space, we’ll look at that chalk, identify the better plays, dive into the MME pivots, and take a serious approach to leverage 10-15% of our portfolios.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, August 2nd
CHALKY STACKS
Dodgers at Joey Estes
Twins vs. Davis Martin
Whenever Shohei Ohtani is in a good spot, he catches ownership, so we wanna stack around him a lot when we play him. These Dodgers are uninspiring without Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, but Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith are still big-league mashers, while Andy Pages has a 10.4% barrel rate against righties himself.
Not to bury the lede, but Joey Estes has a bloodbath for a PlateIQ profile. He gives up a .225 ISO on a 9.7% barrel rate, getting hit hard 50.6% of the time and 33.6% of the time in the air. Oakland is where homers can go to die, and we’re not getting good hitting weather there, but the high barrel rates against righties of Ohtani (21.7%), Hernandez (13%), and Pages are very much in play here. Add the 34.4% fly-ball rate of Smith against righties with the 30.7% rate of Cavan Biggio, and we have ourselves a stack.
Frankly, we can play everyone here because Estes is that bad, but we wanna jam in Ohtani, Teoscar, and Pages first.
I don’t feel great about these Dodgers as the top-owned stack, but Estes is pretty bad (in case you missed it), so I’ll still go overweight, seeing that their pOWN% is still a very palatable ~10% on DK and ~7% on FD. We’re getting a bit of a discount on the salary of the stack with the cheaper pieces and an ownership discount because they’re hobbled.
The Twins have 9-10% pOWN% on both sites and – frankly – I don’t like it. Davis Martin isn’t any damn good, but he doesn’t surrender enough power to justify absorbing this much ownership and investing 20% of our portfolio on a huge slate stacked with stacks to play.
Martin has only given up 1.09 HR/9 on a 7.2% barrel rate through 66.0 MLB IP. Besides a rough 2022, this fits with his MiLB profile. The Twins have a ton of power and Martin doesn’t profile as a good major leaguer, and the ownership isn’t terrible. I just think this is the wrong slate to play stack two double-digit-owned teams. And, between the two, I’m stacking the Dodgers.
There’s just too much great stuff on this slate going under-owned.
TOP STACKS
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