MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, August 23rd
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Ownership is projected to be extremely spread out on this massive 14-game slate, so we can prioritize matchups, projections, and ballparks and — basically — disregard ownership. We can play a solid 15 stacks on this slate pretty comfortably, but we’re just gonna look at a few in this space.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Friday, August 23rd
OPTO STACK
Braves vs. MacKenzie Gore
MacKenzie Gore has seen his power prevention go way up this season, but he still has 3.87 BB/9 and is only a year removed from allowing a 12.1% barrel rate. The Braves projected lineup has a 10.5% barrel rate against lefties with 5 hard-hit rates over 48% to go with 5 fly-ball rates over 33% for 5 barrel rates in the double-digits against southpaws.
Gore is a good pitcher, but we can see why the Braves’ 13.79% Opto DK rating is miles above the 2nd-best Yankees.
The Braves are fairly simple to build if we cross Gio Urshela off of the list, starting with these high barrel rates against lefties:
Marcell Ozuna, 18.1%
Adam Duvall, 16.2%
Ramon Laureano, 14.6% [66 PAs]
Jorge Soler, 13.5%
Matt Olson, 11%
Add that Orlando Arcia and Sean Murphy have strong power against lefties across their careers and that Whit Merrifield will likely get to hit 2nd in this lineup, and we can play a ton of pieces.
Normally, I stay away from the top Opto% stack because of pOWN%, and there usually isn’t much of a difference between the top team’s projection and the next-best teams, but they’re only looking at ~5-6% pOWN%.
The Washington bullpen also isn’t much to write home about, so if the Braves do get to Gore early and often, they can certainly keep rolling, given how stacked their lineup is.
It’s hard to argue with projections when pOWN% is so enticing, but there are four other teams I’m considering in front of the Braves for single entry on this stacked 14-game slate because Gore might be good now. I’ll definitely have a Braves lineup in my 5-lineup small-field portfolio while at least doubling the field on them in MME for this ownership discount.
TOP STACKS
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