MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, June 16
Derek Farnsworth walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have officially made it to the weekend. Friday is always a good day for stacks because most of the games are featured in the main slate. We only have one early game on the schedule today, which means there are 14 games on the main slate. In addition to finding the best matchups and loading up on the best hitter’s parks, we have to keep ownership in mind. For that reason, we are going to look at four stacks tonight — two chalk stacks, one pivot stack, and one leverage stack.
Chalk Stack #1 – Braves vs. Dinelson Lamet
I find myself stacking the Braves often. They are currently a top four offense in hits, runs, RBI, and home runs. They always seem to have one of the highest team totals and that’s the case again tonight at 6.24 runs. Before we get into the reasons why we should stack Atlanta, let’s see how well they performed in the PlateIQ simulations. Believe it or not, they do not grade out as a good stack given the fact that their Opto% is 3-4% on each site and their pOWN% is close to double-digits. This is one of the biggest gaps (in a negative way) that I’ve seen from a chalky stack.
Let’s dive into the matchup. Dinelson Lamet hasn’t been particularly good this season, posting a 4.62 xERA and a .335 xwOBA allowed. Injuries have somewhat derailed his career, but he’s looking to get back on track in 2023. He’s always had the ability to strike batters out at a high rate, but he has struggled with his control this season. He has allowed a 15% walk rate, which has led to a double-digit ERA. Allowing too many walks and home runs is not a recipe for success for a major league pitcher.
Want to read more? Sign up for Premium!
