Dinelson Lamet Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

Dinelson Lamet has been plain fire this season. He’s struck out 34.1% of the batters he’s faced with a 14.7 SwStr% and 1.6 mph increase in velocity (97.7). While estimators rightfully see his 1.89 ERA as unsustainable, due to a .203 BABIP and 86.3 LOB%, only his 3.74 xFIP reaches above the low threes. Even folding in the 90.3 mph exit velocity only gets him to a 3.14 xERA. Lamet finds himself in a strong spot tonight, against what should be a strikeout prone Seattle lineup. Only two batters in Seattle’s projected lineup are below a 23 K% vs RHP since last season. There are few bats for Lamet to fear in this lineup. He has virtually no split, with batters from either side of the plate within two points of a .290 wOBA since last year. Priced at $9.3K on FanDuel, Lamet could project as a better value than some higher priced arms.

Dinelson Lamet has struck out at least seven in four of his five starts (32.1 K%, 15 SwStr%), while lowering his walk rate 2.5 points in addition to increasing his velocity 1.3 mph this season. Lamet had a 19.7 HR/FB last year despite just 7.5% Barrels/BBE and it’s gone a bit the other way this year with a 6.9 HR/FB with a two mph increase in exit velocity (90.3%). Sustain the 25 K-BB% and it won’t matter as much. The Rangers do have an impressive 10.1 K-BB% vs RHP this year, but with a 70 wRC+ and 7.5 HR/FB. If we look at individual batter performance since last season though, there are some strikeouts at the top of the lineup for Lamet. The two through four batters all have a strikeout rate above 28% against RHPs since 2019. There are certainly going to be outs. There are four batters in the lineup below a .310 wOBA against RHPs since 2019. Lamet is just the fourth most expensive pitcher on this slate ($9.4K on FanDuel), but with plenty of upside in this matchup. He gets an additional strike framing boost if Austin Hedges is in the lineup.

Dinelson Lamet does not have the same floor as Shane Bieber, but may be able to match him for upside. Lamet struck out eight of 21 Diamondbacks in his season debut, allowing just a single run and walk with five hits in five innings. More impressively, he was averaging 97.9 mph on his fastball, up 1.8 mph from last season, when he struck out 33.6% of batters, best on the board tonight. There’s some thought that Lamet may have even had some run bad last year with a 4.07 ERA. All of his estimators were below four with a .296 xwOBA. While Lamet is not a threat to throw a complete game like Bieber on any given night either, he does have two massive advantages over the Cleveland pitcher tonight. He pitches in a much more negative run environment in San Francisco and against a much weaker lineup than the Twins. The Giants have a team 88 wRC+ and 18.8 K-BB% this year and had just a 9.1 HR/FB at home last year. Lamet would get a further boost if Austin Hedges were behind the plate, one of the best framers and all around defensive catchers in the game. Regardless, the Giants have a board low 3.63 implied run line tonight. Lamet costs $1.5K less than Bieber on FanDuel.

The Dodgers are just one of those offenses we don’t like to oppose in daily fantasy, especially against RHP, whom they have a 113 wRC+, 10.9 K-BB% and 17.5 HR/FB against. Yet, maybe tonight is a spot where we can reconsider. Aside from the guys at the very top (deGrom & Bieber) this slate is full of unappealing mid and low range options, uncertain workloads and poor matchups. Dinelson Lamet struck out 14 Brewers last time out and his 32.8 K% now tops the board. He’s also allowed more than three runs just twice in 13 starts. He allowed four to each the Red Sox and Braves. He faced the Dodgers in his first outing back from Tommy John surgery, striking out seven of 21 batters, allowing a reasonable three runs on just three hits. Lamet has a .289 xwOBA without a single ERA estimator above 3.7, confirming the quality work he’s done since coming back. His 86.8 mph aEV is also fifth best on the board. So, while this is a highly dangerous and volatile spot, this is also a high upside spot where we can expect minuscule ownership.

Dinelson Lamet has struck out 30.2% of the 199 batters he’s faced this year, which is the second best mark on the slate. Further encouraging, estimators suggest an ERA about half a run lower than his actual results (4.30). A 34.5 GB% has led to a high rate of Barrels/BBE (8.6%) despite a very strong 86.7 mph aEV, but with RHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA, that makes this a very good spot for Lamet. San Francisco is where left-handed power goes to die. Just ask Brandon Belt’s career about that. The interesting thing is that conditions suggest a potential run and home run boosting effect not often seen in this park, but as Weather Edge subscribers will notice the wind direction appears to be out towards left. Even with a slight boost, the Giants have just an 86 wRC+ against RHP and 8.6 HR/FB at home. Lamet would still be a worthy play in this matchup even in a neutral run environment, especially at a reasonably priced $8.2K on FanDuel. For those worried about his workload and a quality start, Lamet has completed six innings in two of his last four starts and got through five last time out in a tough matchup with the Red Sox.

The results for Dinelson Lamet through five starts haven’t been spectacular with a 5.09 ERA. While estimators are all around a full run lower, it’s hard to argue his .322 BABIP with a 24.2 LD% and he’s allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE, but things do appear much brighter if you look a bit deeper. The real standout is a 29.1% strikeout rate, but even the contact isn’t as bad as it seems. He’s generated a 20% infield fly rate on just a 35.5 GB% and despite the high rate of line drives and barrels, only 33.3% of his contact has been above a 95+ mph EV. For context, only Anibal Sanchez, Jose Berrios and Clayton Kershaw have allowed a lower rate of hard contact on tonight’s board. Lamet pitches in a negative run environment in Seattle tonight and although the Mariners have a 102 wRC+ and 16 HR/FB vs RHP this year, they also strike out a quarter of the time against southpaws (25.1%) and lineup looks a lot different than it did to start the year. Over the last week, the Seattle offense has a 72 wRC+ with a 28.4 K%. While Lamet hasn’t pitched the six innings necessary to receive a quality start this year, he costs just $6.5K on FanDuel tonight and is reasonably priced at $2K more on DraftKings after increasing his pitch count to a season high 88 last time out.

The Red Sox and Blue Jays will throw their bullpens at each other. The Phillies and Braves feature two below average strikeout, contact managers in the Atlanta heat. Griffin Canning vs Lance Lynn would be an interesting matchup in another park. Canning owns a 15.1 SwStr% and 19.7 K-BB% against an offense with a 24.5 K% vs RHP. Lynn has a 31.3 K% over the last month. However, this game is in Texas, where Canning’s 36.4 GB% could be a problem and Lynn is facing an offense that refuses to join the strikeout revolution (17.7% vs RHP). To make matters even more difficult, this matchup appears to feature hitter friendly umpiring assignment.

In the final game, Dinelson Lamet makes his return from Tommy John surgery against an offense that has annihilated RHP at home. By default, that leaves Hyun-Jin Ryu as an essentially unfadable pitcher tonight. This, despite the fact that he’s the only $10K+ pitcher tonight and his 1.83 ERA is built upon an unsustainable 86.3 LOB% with 16% of his runs being unearned thus far. He’s walked just seven batters this season, turning a slightly above average strikeout rate into a 22.1 K-BB%. A 30.6 Z-O-Swing% has helped him manage contact to an 85.8 mph aEV and 4.5% Barrels/BBE, projecting a .264 xwOBA that’s just as optimistic as his 2.46 DRA, a bit below his remaining estimators (3.45 SIERA). He owns an even better .231 xwOBA at home since last season. The Padres had been hitting the ball well and, in fact, have a 104 wRC+ with a 22 HR/FB vs LHP, but were recently cooled down by the vaunted Giants’ pitching staff and still own a 25.9 K% against southpaws. Ryu is bound to be featured in a ton of lineups on a four game slate, but it’s difficult to see how you get away from him considering the conditions.