MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, March 31
Alex Sonty walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will be looking at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ, but we’ll be more focused on the collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
On some slates, we’ll look at five or even eight teams. Smaller slates are tricky in that almost everyone is in play sometimes. Other times, only three or four are worth noting.
Chalk Stack — Padres vs. Kyle Freeland
The Padres have the top projected ownership by a mile, but are behind the Rockies, D’Backs, Guardians, Astros, and Dodgers in Opto% with only ten teams on the slate. I disagree with the D’Backs, Astros, and Dodgers on that list and would bump up the Mariners. But the point stands that the Padres — even if we think they’re the best team — don’t have a gap between them and the next team in projection to justify the ownership gap.
Kyle Freeland is a bum and the Rockies bullpen is a mess. Meanwhile, the Padres have a heavy-hitting lineup that will be worthy of high exposure on a lot of slates. But their ballpark is seldom worthy of heavy ownership.
That said, Freeland’s problems aren’t just Coors problems. He surrendered a 9.7% barrel rate on a slate-leading 80.5% contact rate because he only struck out 6.75 hitters per nine innings in 2022. Where we’re playing the Padres, it’ll be crucial to mix Ha-Seong Kim and Austin Nola into the mix to find some leverage. And we must full stack them.
Personally, I’m off of this particular chalk in a bad home run ballpark, but playing them at high exposure to be overweight on the field in MME isn’t stupid at all, they’re so talented.