MLB DFS Top Stacks: Friday, May 19
Derek Farnsworth walks you through the top stacks for the upcoming MLB main slate. Should we eat the chalk? Which team is a good pivot? Where can we find leverage? Find out below!
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play.
In this space, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections available in LineupHQ. Still, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
As always, happy Friday everyone. We are back and we are here to talk some stacks for tonight’s 12-game main slate. There are a lot of ways to approach stacks in MLB DFS. You can target the best offenses, you can target the best matchups, or you can play the ownership game. I’ll cover a few different paths you can take this evening.
Chalk Stack- Astros vs. Ken Waldichuk
The Astros have the highest implied run total of the slate at just under six runs. They are playing at home against Ken Waldichuk, who has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. Over the last two seasons combined, he has a 4.74 SIERA with a 10% walk rate and a 35% ground ball rate (very low). During that stretch, he has allowed a .410 wOBA to right-handed hitters. This season specifically, he owns a 6.05 xERA with a .375 xwOBA allowed. From a matchup standpoint, it’s hard to find a fault with the Astros.
Now, let’s take a look at their offense. Jose Altuve could make his season debut tonight, which would be a solid boost for the offense as a whole. Houston hasn’t been bad offensively, but they are currently 19th in runs scored and 25th in home runs hit. Altuve should provide a spark at the top of the lineup. Luckily, the sites didn’t list him at min-salary like they have with a few other players returning from injury this season.
After Altuve comes the real power. Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker all boast a .350+ xwOBA this season and the last two have xISOs of .282 and .253. While this is a lefty/lefty matchup for Alvarez and Tucker, they both hit southpaws well and if all goes according to plan, the Astros will get into the A’s bullpen early anyway. Jose Abreu is the cheap piece of the stack and you can also get a little contrarian by using the likes of Jeremy Pena, Corey Julks, and Martin Maldonado.
The Astros are currently checking in at 10.1% ownership and 9.9% optimal.
Top Pivot – Rangers vs. Karl Kauffmann
I have a feeling that if we stack the Rangers tonight, we’ll be doing the same dance as the players in the picture above. Even though they’ve dealt with some injuries, Texas is currently second in the majors in runs scored, ninth in home runs, and 16th in stolen bases.
The matchup is certainly enticing, as the Rangers host Karl Kauffmann and a very beatable Rockies’ bullpen. Kauffmann will be making his major league debut tonight and hasn’t been particularly impressive in his minor league starts. In eight games at the AAA level, he has a 5.55 FIP with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 7%. If you dive a little deeper, you can see that he doesn’t have high ground ball or fly ball rates, he gives up a lot of line drives.
The Rangers offense has been rolling all season, but having Corey Seager back from injury is certainly a big positive. A quick glance at their projected lineup and you can see that eight of their batters have an xwOBA of at least .320 this season. Even better, five of them have an xISO of at least .200 (Seager, Adolis Garcia, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, and Ezequiel Duran).
The Rangers have speed, they have power, they can string together hits, and they have a nice matchup at home. They currently check in at less than 5% ownership as a stack, which makes them a nice pivot off of the Astros.
Contrarian Options – A’s vs. Brandon Bielak
Stacking the A’s this season has been a very profitable venture if you have stuck with it. They are consistently one of the cheapest stacks and they are consistently under-owned. This is likely due to the fact that they don’t get any love from the betting market. When a team is constantly a large underdog and has a low total, it can be hard to convince yourself that stacking is the right move.
Once again, I’m on the A’s as one of my favorite stacks for the slate and tonight we get to use them as leverage. Brandon Bielak has not been good this season, but everyone will see that he’s a -250 favorite and facing a supposedly bad offense. He’s going to be one of the more popular SP2s of the slate. A’s truthers unite (all seven of us).
Let’s talk about Bielak. He’s not as bad as his numbers suggest, but even the advanced metrics have been ugly this season. In three appearances, he has a slate-worst 8.27 xERA with an xwOBA allowed of .424. He’s a low-strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .360+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons combined.
The best part about the A’s (aside from the price) is that the stack builds itself. Esteury Ruiz seems to produce on a nightly basis. Believe it or not, he has already stolen 20 bases this season. For power, we can look to Ryan Noda (.360 xwOBA) and Brent Rooker (.289 xISO). I won’t say no to a full stack, but I also like the idea of using these three as a mini-stack to accompany the Astros or Rangers.
Oakland project as the lowest-owned stack on the slate and their Opto% is above 2%. One time A’s, one time.
As always, stack well my friends. Good luck tonight.