MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, April 8th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Monday brings a nice little 9-game MLB DFS slate, which is one of the bigger weeknight slates we’ve had so far this season. There’s also an eclipse today, I hear. Cool, I guess! Big day for Roth, for sure.
Nine games means we’ve got no shortage of options to consider from a stacking standpoint. It doesn’t sound as though the weather will be an issue tonight, and we’ve got a Coors Field game to deal with. How should we be stacking ‘em up on this Monday?
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, April 8th
Chalk Stack – Diamondback at Kyle Freeland
We’ve got a rather unfortunate convergence here between a popular offense and a popular pitcher to stack against in the best hitter’s ballpark of them all. The Diamondbacks have already tattooed Kyle Freeland once this season, and tonight they’ll get their second look at him in less than 2 weeks.
It’s a tiny sample, but Freeland has looked like an utter gas can so far this season. His ERA is 27. His 5.67 SIERA is predictably far better than that ERA, but a 5.67 SIERA is ghastly in its own right. He’s never been a big source of strikeouts, and when he’s right, he’s able to keep the ball on the ground. Unfortunately for Freeland, he hasn’t posted a groundball rate below 45% since 2021, so he’s not even a groundball guy anymore. While he is due for some positive regression just because a 27.00 ERA, a 30% HR/FB%, and a .571 BABIP allowed are unsustainable, that regression is no certainty to arrive tonight.
Arizona has a 5.97 implied run total tonight, and you can argue that it looks a little low. Starting with the righties is a logical approach against the lefty. Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez have made careers out of mashing left-handed pitching. The red-hot Ketel Marte is sporting a .192 ISO vs. LHPs since the start of 2023, while Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, Blaze Alexander, and Gabriel Moreno will all hit from the preferred side of the plate here. The only lefty in the projected lineup is Corbin Carroll, who I’m happy to play in stacks if the L-vs.-L matchup keeps his ownership down relative to some of his teammates.
The Diamondbacks’ projected lineup has whiffed less than 20% of the time vs. lefties since the beginning of last season, and Freeland has only struck out about 15% of LHBs he’s faced in his career. Arizona will be putting the ball in play tonight, and putting the ball in play is a recipe for success in this ballpark.
Naturally, you’re not going to be flying under the radar if you load up on these hitters. However, the current projections say you can still stack the Diamondbacks given their massive opto rates on DraftKings and FanDuel. Arizona comes in with about 15% projected stack ownership on DK, yet their optimal rate is north of 23%. The gap is smaller on FanDuel, with 13% pOWN% compared to about a 15% shot at being the top stack.
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