MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, August 26th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a bit of an unusual Monday on our hands from a DFS scheduling perspective. FanDuel’s slate will start at 6:40 p.m. ET, but it will NOT feature the TOR/BOS game. DraftKings will begin at 7:10 p.m. ET WITH the TOR/BOS game. Let’s dive into it.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, August 26th
CHALKY STACK
Marlins at Ryan Feltner
We have a Coors Field game with a high total, and I think there is a very wide range of outcomes in this one. If you’re multi-entering, I think you certainly want some exposure. Our Top Stacks tool currently has the Marlins as the chalkiest stack, but it’s for a good reason.
The Marlins rank 21st in wRC+ vs. RHP in August. While that doesn’t sound exciting, they were literally last for quite some time and ranked 27th for the season. I like this stack A LOT more if Xavier Edwards plays. He’s a little banged up and hasn’t played since Friday. He’s been a pleasant surprise in this little resurgence Miami has enjoyed. He owns a massive .381 wOBA, and he’s hitting .349.
It didn’t seem like he would find his footing after being touted as a top prospect for a few years, but he has certainly arrived in a big way. He can just rack up numerous fantasy points with his speed – he’s a threat to steal 2nd and 3rd base every time he’s on. I love the fact that he is projected to lead off on the road at Coors Field, which gives the team a guaranteed 9th-inning at-bat.
Edwards’ ability to put himself in scoring position has also helped Jake Burger have a smash of a 2nd half of the season. Burger has a big .277 ISO and a 36% fly-ball rate across the last 30 days (vs. RHP), and that’s exactly what we’re looking for in Denver’s high altitude. Nobody ever wants to play Jonah Bride, but he’s also enjoying a helluva month, sporting a .330 ISO and .384 wOBA vs. RHP.
Jesus Sanchez has certainly had some splash games this season, and the addition of Connor Norby gives Miami another very cheap bat to throw in a stack. Griffin Conine is the stone minimum salary on DraftKings, and he’s hit 19 homers in the minors this year.
Only Burger and Edwards are priced higher than $4,300 on DraftKings, and with fewer games to pick from, you might feel more inclined to pay up for the likes of Zack Wheeler. A cheap-ish Marlins stack can help you do that.
Our Top Stacks tool is currently projecting Miami to be the most popular, but I don’t see the chalk being overwhelming. Miami has a 5.25 implied team total, which is tied with Colorado for the current highest.
I’ll briefly mention Colorado against Edward Cabrera in this same game. I think the Rox can also post a big number, but I’d rather power hunt or mini-stack them. Cabrera is so frustrating. He could be a VERY good pitcher if he can figure out command. He still flashes some serious ceiling on days where he has control, but they are far and few in between.
Ezequiel Tovar and Brendan Rogers are especially intriguing because they have the two lowest walks rates in the projected lineup – and you want the guys who are going to hack at the dish against Cabrera instead of the patient hitters who will look to just get on base.
DRAFTKINGS STACK
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