MLB DFS Top Stacks: Monday, July 29th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We’ve got an 8-game slate for Monday that features the electric Paul Skenes in a tough matchup against Houston. The most troublesome weather spot looks to be the game in Cincinnati between the Cubs and Reds. Be sure to check Kevin Roth’s MLB Weather analysis for more details. A friendly reminder that the trade deadline is just 2 days away, and we could see some players on the move before lock. Be sure to keep an eye on the news even after lineups are confirmed.
Let’s dive in and figure things out from a stacking standpoint.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Monday, July 29th
CHALKY STACK
Royals at Chris Flexen
The Royals figure to be the most popular team on the slate thanks to their matchup with Chris Flexen and the bad White Sox bullpen. Flexen owns a lofty 5.25 ERA while striking out just 16.9% of batters. He has surrendered 1.52 HR/9 and a massive 46.9% fly-ball rate.
The Royals have been a slightly below-average offense with a 96 wRC+, but they certainly have some attractive pieces.
Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best fantasy producers in the entire league, with a power-speed profile that gives him multiple paths to reach a ceiling performance. His .249 ISO and 14.5% barrel rate against righties both lead the team, and he has added 23 stolen bases to his outstanding power numbers. He is the top overall bat on the slate.
Salvador Perez is also a premium target, as he boasts a .210 ISO and 12.6% barrel rate against righties. He has as much upside as any catcher on the slate, and he is also the top option among the C-1B position on FD, where we are not required to play a catcher.
Flexen has been more vulnerable to left-handed batters with a 10.7% barrel rate allowed. Vinnie Pasquantino and Michael Massey are lefties who own an above average ISO and barrel rate against righties. The same can be said for MJ Melendez, and his high strikeouts shouldn’t be much of an issue against Flexen.
Adam Frazier is cheap on all sites and is a fine salary-saving option assuming he continues to hit leadoff.
Hunter Renfroe offers above-average power at a value price tag.
Behind Flexen is one of the worst bullpens in the league. The White Sox’s bullpen owns the 6th-highest SIERA in MLB, with a below-average strikeout rate and the highest walk rate in the league.
The Royals figure to be the most popular team on the slate at about 14% ownership, but their optimal rates lead the slate and are above ownership projections on both sites.
Stacking options beyond the Royals are much more jumbled up, especially if we are unable to play Cubs/Reds due to weather concerns. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see ownership condense around the Royals in single-entry and small-field tournaments.
PIVOT STACKS
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