MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, August 10th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles are about the individual players most likely to succeed, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. With some help from our Top Stacks tool, we will aim to look more at the process instead of just the picks and the teams instead of just the players. We’ll still analyze the MLB player projections that are available in our MLB optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
Happy Saturday! The main MLB slate is of the evening variety tonight, and we’ve got 9 games on the schedule. We’ve got another potential delay in Colorado, but things look otherwise rosy on the weather front according to our MLB Weather page.
It’s looking as though the Braves in Coors will be the chalkiest stack again tonight, and we could see more concentrated ownership tonight than we did on last night’s 12-gamer. Things are very spread out on the hitting front once we get past Atlanta, so it’ll be interesting to see where the ownership goes.
Let’s figure out whom to stack up tonight.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, August 10th
CHALK STACK
Braves at Dakota Hudson
The Rockies certainly haven’t put together a quality rotation, but they do seem to have quite a few annoying pitchers who just manage to skate by despite mediocre skill sets. Dakota Hudson, however, doesn’t really fall into that category. The Cardinals legend is sporting an ugly 5.84 ERA on the year, while his 12.3% strikeout rate is one of the lowest in the entire sport for a regular starting pitcher. Hudson’s 11.8% walk rate is nearly as high, while his 5.61 SIERA makes his ERA look justified.
The one thing Hudson does well is keep the ball on the ground (52.4%). That’s a skill that’ll come in handy given the spacious outfield and hitter-friendly conditions at Coors. Hudson has also done a fine job of dodging barrels (6.2%), while he’s yielded just 10 homers across 17 starts. Hitting home runs is hardly the only way to put runs on the board in this ballpark, but you’re going to need dongs from the Braves if they’re going to pay off at what should be significant ownership.
Fortunately for Atlanta, they’ll get a heavy dosage of the woeful Rockies bullpen once Hudson comes out of the game. Hudson’s ground ball numbers translate to hitters from both sides of the plate, but his overall numbers are worse vs. LHBs. Lefties have crushed him to the tune of a .396 wOBA with 8 of the 10 homers he’s allowed, and he’s walked more of them than he’s struck out.
The Braves are a very righty-heavy offense, as Matt Olson and Jarred Kelenic are the only hitters in tonight’s projected lineup who’ll have the platoon edge over Hudson. Olson has a case as the top overall hitter on this slate, while Kelenic ($4,200 DK, $3,300 FD) is a decent salary saver.
Frankly, I’m not too concerned with the splits given Hudson’s inability to miss bats. His ground ball numbers have me leaning toward prioritizing the fly ball hitters. Jorge Soler, Austin Riley, and Travis d’Arnaud are the standout righties in that regard. I don’t hate the idea of fading what should be a very popular Marcell Ozuna in a Braves stack, but he does lead the team in barrel rate (17.5%) against righties.
As expected, we’re seeing more projected ownership on Atlanta thanks to the smaller slate than we did yesterday. The Braves are projected for about 16% stack ownership on DK, yet their 20.8% optimal rate means they’re still playable. We’re looking at about 13% pOWN% on FanDuel compared to a 14.4% Opto%. If you’re stacking them, you’ll need to get different somewhere else.
PIVOT STACK
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