MLB DFS Top Stacks: Saturday, May 25th
MLB DFS is complex. Most articles on MLB DFS picks are about the individual players most likely to succeed on any given day, but the MLB DFS picks most likely to succeed aren’t always the MLB DFS picks we should be most likely to play. In this article, we will look at the MLB DFS process over the MLB DFS picks. And we’re looking at teams over individual players, using the features of the RotoGrinders Top Stacks tool. We’ll still look at the player projections that are available in our MLB Lineup Optimizer, LineupHQ. However, we’ll be more focused on collective ownership, optimal scores, and matchups of full stacks within the context of game selection and leverage.
We have a nice Saturday night main slate on tap, with some high-powered offenses in obvious spots. But as much as I like the chalk, it looks like we can take a rational risk on the best offense in the American League at a very low pOWN%.
Let’s talk about it.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks for Saturday, May 25th
OVERWHELMING TOP OPTO% STACK
Dodgers at Hunter Greene
I’m not sure that I recall our Top Stacks tool being this high on any team on a fairly normal slate. As of early afternoon, the tool has the Dodgers with north of a 46% OPTO% on DraftKings and 32% on FanDuel.
So why? Of course, the Dodgers are uber-talented. But there are certainly a few factors that make them an attractive stack today.
The Great American Ballpark is a massive upgrade for bats according to Baseball Savant, which lists the venue as having the 4th-best park factors while Dodger Stadium is just 19th.
As for the matchup, although Greene has been pretty great this season, he continues to be the fireball-throwing righty whose flame becomes much dimmer each time through the opponent’s batting order.
Across his career, Greene has a sparkling 2.27 ERA the first time through the batting order, but that number balloons to 5.53 during the second trip and 6.39 on a rare third go-around. Kudos to Greene on improving this year though. He’s completed 7 innings 3 times this season, a feat he accomplished just twice in 2023.
The Dodgers also just saw him a week ago, and Green was good – 6.1 innings of 2-run ball. He’s giving up fewer barrels this season, and honestly, there are a lot of positive trends working for him compared to last year.
There are also currently 4 teams carrying double-digit stack pOWN% on both sites according to our tool (including a Coors Field game), which should keep the Dodgers from being any kind of mega chalk.
Greene has only given up more than 3 earned runs once this season. I gotta be honest- I can’t believe the OPTO% is this high for the Dodgers. Greene has a serious history of hard contact and a career 4.70 ERA at home, but it looks like he’s taken a mini-leap in 2024. I’m not sure about fully stacking LAD today, but I have no issues with a mini-stack or power hunting. If it kills me, it kills me.
CHALK STACK
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